Member Info for big-blue

I doubt the EU will open to UK before they have the US corridor.Its about face saving and taking an advantage. They want to be seen as getting ahead with the US and the us in the UK to be left like we are being left behind. Hence the very strong diplomatic push from the EU on the yanks to open EU US routes whilst pressing the rest of the world to keep UK out. Then there is the trade advantage, carriers based in the EU get the market - and yes, as soon as the US says yes to the EU then the EU will allow TRANSIT passengers within airport hubs to connect to those transatlantic routes. But the US will know they are being played so as ever, only pay attention to what the US is saying re transatlantic routes and ignore any UK or EU speculation. The yanks will play their own game!!!!!!! [ps - UK will get first dibs on transatlantic routes as we have more to offer on the NATO front in my opinion]

Once bitten......

I think travel sector recovery in the sp will require very concrete actions from government in removing travel obstacles. Obvious forward steps before have been very deliberately frustrated as the government attempted to give the impression they were opening up travel for the people only for the reality to be outright sabotage.

And there is going to be some trouble as some people try hold on to what is now their comfortable familiar safe space such as mask wearing. Poor old care minister was savaged on R4 this morning with the interviewer trying to complicate as far as possible a relatively straight forward discussion. That kind of message feeds through to the plebs leaving them unsure what they situation is and that certainly feeds through to travel. Overcoming the sabotage of Portuguese holiday makers and persuading people it is safe to book and fly will be difficult enough without ******s on the BBC doing their level best to undermine confidence in absolutely everything.

Today seems to be the opening of the change of narrative to be played out over the next two weeks "learn to live with the virus".

Oi! Don't you dare blame. I suggest you take a look back and you will see I simply answered him back. Further, he is posting his trolling all over the place. you want to whip up the mob against little ol' me? You're as bad as Lord Haw Haw.

Is Lord Haw Haw back?

I'm enjoying the entertainment. Do we have to pay him for this?

When someone is backed into a corner because they are being beaten black and blue with real world facts, they tend to try biting back harder and harder. There are some good things about France, the Champagne the Brits invented, the cheese the Brits invented, the market economy the Brits invented. I could go on. But let us not forget the French were very constructive and involved in that wonderful aircraft, Concorde. Those seat seat covers, still talking about them today. Concorde could never have happened without those French seat covers. Thank you. What was that? - no, that was Rolls Royce.

Air France v British Airways.

'nuff said!

For the record, there were some good ideas to begin with for the EU. Churchill was correct to pursue the ideal of more interaction because it is [in theory] harder to pull the trigger against someone you have a connection with, just ignore all the civil and religious wars throughout history and the theory sort of holds. The problem was the institutionalisation of socialist ideology into the what was a common market. A market should never be regulated because it is, well, a market and democracy is critical. So we ended up with butter mountains and wine lakes. The treaty of Rome was possibly the limit that the EU should have reached. But then along came the advanced politicisation of the EU with the Maastricht treaty back in 1992. And that is where the seed of discontent was sowed. The secrecy about what the treaty meant. I remember the Sunday Times publishing the treaty in full against the directive of the EU council. The first main act of suppressing free speech which set my views. The the UK not being allowed to vote on it whilst surrounded by countries that could but not really understanding what the real extent of the treaty meant. Then we have the establishment of the constitution and finalising of total power transfer from member states to the unelected EU commission in 2008. Referendums started to go sour in Europe, and the attempt to get democratic consent was abandoned. The UK was supposed to have had a referendum on accepting the constitution treaty, which Gordon Brown very reluctantly signed in isolation. 8 years later with the rise of Farage and UKIP Cameron attempted to reign in the EU, but the EU was now in full Soviet mode and ignored those pesky British with a minor meaningless arrangement that the UK voted on in 2016. Every trick used to over turn rejected referendum elsewhere in the EU together with a very one sided mass media campaign was thrown at the British public including direct threats to jobs, houses, NHS, the lot. The very choice to leave was itself deliberately designed to be intimidating. It wasn't so much that the UK voted to leave by a small margin, is was the fact that so many were not panicked and actually voted to leave. A lot of my EU friends have described it as a vote on behalf of the silenced in the EU.

If the EU had been left as a common market with close cooperation pooling resources for the betterment of all - it would have worked. But a critical error was the concession of member states to a central unelected Soviet socialist commission. With no democratic consent it has not been conditioned by the people it is supposed to serve and moderated to stop the excess power play. Indeed the attitude of the commission is that the people of Europe serve it. And now, the commission wants to overturn Brexit. Oh yes, oh it does. With vengeance!

Well, Fontenoy, amongst my many critics, I don't think they could accuse me of bigoted stereo typing. But they may have such an opinion of yourself. Put your wooden spoon away, you've played your hand and we can see what you are playing at.

Wasn't singling you out at all TP. I noted that I am trolled for posting when declaring not being a current holder. In the past you have said you clearly you are not a holder with dry powder waiting for an entry point, as other do. But they and you don't get the same troll abuse I get. I am not here to entertain people.

Let's remember why this kicked off today. Before, I have posted the EU might try to blame the UK for covid in order to get some money out of us. What an idiot many of you said but didn't post because you are all so nice polite people. And I have also posted a few times my warning that there will be difficult times for the UK at the hands of the EU for years to come.

Today somebody pops up saying they are in France and laying out a case to actually blame the UK not once but twice over for the EU being infected with covid. I think I am bound to respond and highlight this fact as it gives a great deal of weight to what I have said before. Whatever stock you invest in, this kind of variable must be considered and the weight given to the potential situation must be considered. Who here posted that investing in the travel sector was a bit iffy because Merkel would be phoning al the world leaders telling them to block UK travellers form entering their country? It wasn't to much of a surprise to me, but it will have been a bit of an eye opener for others.

And there we have it. One comment leads to another and we have a discussion. I actually get very, very, VERY board when people get into long winded discussions about business fundamental numbers but it is part of the discussion and have to live with it.

I have refurbished the bathroom from profits trading in a couple of travel sector shares, including IAG on a number of occasions, and I'm expecting one last big hit from IAG re US travel. I expected to be around for a couple of months and then abandon travel sector and return back to my more normal ground. But the reopening has dragged on and on so I am still here. I don't think there is anything particularly wrong in posting on a discussion board and not holding a financial interest in the share at hand. 90% of investing is research and posting to prod reactions to try and uncover true sentiment is perfectly valid. 'Is that a boiler room ramp or has that little group of posters got a valid point there based on something I'm not aware off?'

It's called being wise. I am not yet back in IAG for the reasons of the politics in the EU and within the UK government which I believe are closely linked to EU politics. Looking at the recent performance, maybe I was right to do so. I want to see a decoupling of IAG sp movements from the likes of Easy J before buying back into IAG. But whilst politics is influencing the whole travel sector, everything is moving as a block and so I am sitting on my hands. I appreciate I am the only investor in the entire universe following this strategy.

Are you seriously trying to suggest that politic events connected with the EU have no bearing on the share price? So nothing wrt to the EU from closing the Irish border in Jan through to Merkel trying to persuade the EU and others from allowing British travellers. I am sure there are many who want people to take their eye off that particular political football and I do understand the frustration when somebody like me comes along and reminds people and prompts people to consider an alternative point of view to consider before buying or selling. I note you also want to single me out for attack during times not holding, but don't attack other people while they post without holding, your best friend TP for example. I'll point out the potential impact the commission and EU policies and attitudes may have on this share price as I see fit. To be irritated by it confirms you also find the political situation troubling for the sp.

"Gross mismanagement of the Pandemic and then endangering the EU with the British variant and now the Indian/Delta variant."
I believe the 'British variant' in Kent and it can be argued in a counter claim that the virus was transmitted from the EU via a channel crossing and therefore the UK was infected by the EU. Further, the 'Indian/Delta' variant was detected in the EU before it was detected in the UK form gnome sequencing records. Therefore it can be submitted in a counter claim that the EU can be said to have infected the UK by the same logic of the EUs claim.

"How does a relatively small player think it is going to be able to take on the might of the EU?? 500 million v 65 million?? "
'take on'? Some people think I am going over the top suggesting that bullets will fly. Well with this kind of implied threat, more may now see what I am getting at. But one thing needs to be borne in mind. How many of those 500 million would take a stand against the UK? Referendum polling and EU election polling combined with all the exit movements right across the EU indicated a large chunk of those 500 million will stand WITH the UK against the commission.

It is going to go one of two ways, the UK is forced back in to the EU against it's with a gun barrel at its head, or the EU will collapse.

Please stop removing posts that do not make positive points about the EU. Raising the negative points over EU is critical to understanding what effect attitudes will have in affecting the potential share price movement of this stock. Deleting one point of view is not valid as investors need to see the full scope of opinions, which includes non favourable opinions on the EU and the commission.

And there Fontenoy spells out for all to see what this EU is really all about. Twisting the narrative to say that the UK is to blame for the EU getting infected. Not once, but twice! Just wait for the EU claim for reparations and compensation. By hook or by crook, the EU is going to replace the missing UK contributions and then double, triple and quadruple what they are going for. Fontenoy being in France is most likely preaching back the 'sentiment' amongst the media covid narrative that is being built up to convince themselves in the commission they have a case. This sort of thing will be coming at us in the UK from many different places and tactics. Thank you Fontenoy - your post and the contents will have been an eye-opener for many reading, especially those who have regarded warnings about what is coming as being perhaps a bit obtuse. It ain't!

The evidence that it will rise is the recent history of the share. As positive news and events have indicated progression from lockdown to free travel, the sp has reacted positively. Our wonderful leaders have done a magnificent job of quashing and reversing the positive sentiment by turning the positive news around. Therefore, it is a dead cert that when positive moves to open up air travel are indicated then sp will rise. The extent maybe limited given the continuos quashing and the market may want to see real life evidence before the full sp rise is shown, but if, marab, you are wanting to argue that a resumption of quarantine free travel between the UK and US will not result in sp rise, then it really is down to you to demonstrate why the opposite would have to such immense positive news.

You also have a right to freedom of speech but that right does not mean others are obliged to accept your view.

Willy wavers are sulking in the corner of the play ground. Their moment in the lime light has come to a sudden halt. If this ends 5% up on the day, I'll get the wheel barrow out and do a few willy waving laps in celebration.