Member Info for big-blue

apologies for the behaviour of some posters. I have them on permanent filter and wasn't aware they are continuing to cause trouble. If anybody is offended by anything they post, please report as well as filter. Once on filter people stay there with me unless I am specifically recommended they have changed their ways by a few trusted posters. Some of them do reappear with new avatars but they are quickly flushed out and moderators are more effective these days in removing accounts.

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NorthScot sundezena Jamison Benjohnson90 mxiart Johnbri4 Ossingh

https://www.internationalairportreview.com/news/173692/restrictive-travel-measures-will-jeopardise-aviation-industry-recovery/

Starting to see a number of stories popping up with a general narrative that next time a variant is 'of concern' that closing borders and restricting flights is useless and does much more harm than good. It does seem that a meandering to a global consensus is being created where travel restrictions will be low down on the list of responses to the next variant of concern.

The only good thing to come out of the kind of military stand off is iis and other large funds have to enter genuinely speculative trading. Will it be war or peace? Will war be profitable or not? Will peace be profitable or not? What cost to avoid war? Opinions diverge much more in these times and it can be a really great opportunity to make some big gains, if of course you happen to pick the right side!

BERENBERG CUTS INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES PRICE TARGET TO 180 (200) PENCE - 'HOLD'

Slowly clawing back yesterday's drop. There are issues with what the fed may do with rates, and whether Putin will up the ante by moving more forces in position. I think the hit the Russian exchange took will focus minds. Putin will have an exit strategy and the next move on the chess board will either be offensive or defensive. In my opinion based on the politics I know from that part of the world Putin will settle for some ethnic territorial gains whilst a commission or some such is set up at the UN to waste a few years away looking to find a demilitarisation of the region [that will never happen, just a treading water exercise]. Remember woke culture hasn't quite caught up with these areas of the world and the demarcation lines are in full view. It is why the Balkans descended into all out war after the lid of the pressure cooker was lifted off after the end of the Russian soviet era. My biggest worry that things could fall apart is the EU trying to elbow its way in to try and look important. It is already talking in terms of EU US. Specifically leaving out UK. In pursuit of their silly campaign to demonise the UK they are likely to use situations like the Ukraine with no account of the trouble they will create by dividing the united front to Russia. So far it looks to be predominantly US Russia discussion, UK and EU states independently contributing resources under the auspice of nato. The French/German separate approach to Moscow seems to be swept under the carpet for the moment and everybody must just hope they don't try and crash the treaty signing with some idiot ideas to bring peace in our time trying to steal the show and cause a complete collapse and actual hostilities. If you think that's is just a load of ranting rubbish, go back and look at the Balkans and what a complete mess the EU made of that trying to act as a supranational state. Nothing in the political structure has changed since then except the UK has left.

It's a fingers crossed time for a week or two and hope the fed prioritises inflation control.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/delta-air-lines-lifted-to-buy-from-hold-at-berenberg-which-favors-us-over-europe-carriers-2022-01-25

Well spotted IAG. Gold star :)

https://www.metro.us/asian-shares-extend-losses/

I wouldn't get your hopes up too high for a 5% U-turn today based on the Asian markets overnight.

I think the nato stepping up activity and US rally will help, but the asian markets indicate all is not sorted just yet.

I don't think IAGs response to the slot rule change is encouraging. Whilst there is a step up from end March to 70% use, there is provision for variability according to the destination rules which may have restrictions leading to reduced flights. Under those circumstances the 70% can be relaxed.

So why are most of the airlines, and airports supportive but not IAG? I am sorry to say this involves that comment shortly after the opening of the transatlantic routes with the 'mostly full' planes. I think IAG is struggling to fill many of the planes, and that is on a stalled reintroduction of routes and the prospect of having to return to 70% slot use means they are going to have to fly nearly empty planes. I know this point of view is going to anger a few people, but corporate news is non-existent and in stocks no news is generally not good news!

It does look like a much delayed nato response is kicking off a positive market reaction. US committing boots on the ground (standby) so door closing on Putin. He might actually be relieved. Frankly up to today the door was kinda wide open. He put an invasion force in place as a bluff and found confused opposition. He had no climb down. Watch out for a deal, some Russian ethnic towns to be put under Russian control.

I'm just looking forward to the day I can get a message for coffee or lunch, pop down to Heathrow, take the next flight to Linate have a nice lunch with friends, pop back on an early evening flight and not be bugged with tests and covid crap.

That'll be the Italian fit to fly. As soon as that goes I'll be off to Milan myself to catch up on a friend.

https://rmx.news/article/spanish-mep-calls-on-eu-to-punish-poland-and-asks-brussels-to-help-the-polish-people-change-the-government/

https://rmx.news/hungary/hungarys-justice-minister-hits-back-at-european-left-seeking-to-interfere-in-countrys-election/

Not a soviet??? Putin is the least of our worries.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-under-fire-for-not-taking-firm-stance-against-russia/2484119

"Investors have been growing increasingly worried about how aggressively the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting this week, might act to cool rising inflation.

Read more at: https://www.macon.com/news/article257650873.html#storylink=cpy"

https://www.metro.us/evergrande-seeks-more-time/

Don't forget this little nugget lurking around in the background. It might seem unconnected but the debt is bigger than a lot of small countries and risk is spread out far and wide. Default would send a big shock wave around the financial markets.

Emerald, by deduction, if the removal of the day two test does not raise the sp [at all], it must mean there is a bigger weight on the share. The sp response to the testing removal will now be coiled up in a market twang* upwards together with the release of whatever the current bigger weight is.

*twang - don't look it up, it is not a formal term. I will of course be careful to not use this exclusive Big_Blue term with my other dozen avatars lest I give the game away ;)

" impartial accurate information"

That boat sailed decades ago.

As the drop today has stabilised, I would reckon this is a correction pricing in a worse case scenario. Whatever the scenario is linked to, be it interests rates, inflation, Russia, EU or covid, I think whatever it is, it is priced in.

As far as Russia is concerned, I think originally there was no intention to 'invade' with tanks and guns blazing. Maybe deploy forces to protect ethnic Russian towns on their request, the minor incursion. But the divided and disorganised response to Russian deployment may have floated the idea in Moscow to go and take much more territory. Thankfully we are seeing a more war like defensive response to Russia, which will facilitate a reversion to the original game plan of a game of political chess nibbling away at the border. Remember there has been an 8 year war with 14,000 dead to date. Russia wants to end that of course. I want to see much more Nato deployment, for god's sake keep the EU commission out of any negotiations, and this will be settled before Spring.

Oh dear, oh dear Danphonic. You let them into your head and started repeating the bull that I have multiple profiles. Do you think I have the time to write out my monologues under multiple avatars????? Jeez, this is a 18hr a day job as it stands. What Scottish wording did I use? Apart from classic caricature stuff that would these days qualify for a 2 year prison sentence for being rasci.st I wouldn't nee a tune being from the high rood if i' give me a back lickin' on me nut! I am English, red blooded English from the kingdom of Mercia.