RE: Another drop!21 Jan 2022 10:40
Ed1, could be right, Russia may not try and nibble away at the border to enclave Russian dominated towns. Instead if Ukraine tried to join NATO and have NATO forces deployed then Russia could, as you say, look to neutralise them. If you turn the tables, and NATO took the same view of the Russian forces deployed would NATO be qualified to take a first strike? I still think there will be some territory taken, but not necessarily by tanks, perhaps more ethnic aligned towns with Russia asking for Russian protection and Russian forces taking up positions on that basis. A kind of perverse democracy - I suspect that is one of the scenarios Biden had in mind when he talked about minor incursions. This is what the Russians used to qualify the Crimea incursion. The flip side of that will be other towns close to the border and any incursions asking NATO for protection. But will NATO forces then be deployed in Ukraine There is one big game of chess about to start. I read about the EU and Germany actually looking to make a pact with Russia yesterday, will try and find the link. Anyway, I will write to Putin and ask him to hold off the war until Autumn because I was planning a bit of tour around Ukraine as an undiscovered place to visit this summer. Having said that I haven't done any war tourism so I might get to do both at the same time.