Member Info for big-blue

The cynic, Spar, might argue that the bots are walking down the sp so that a spike up in value will be larger with the formal removal of day two tests allowing greater quick fire profiteering. Of course, that never, ever, ever, ever happens in the real world. However, I would keep an eye on the results. All sorts of little leaks can be happening. For example, a key set of numbers may now have been correlated on a spreadsheet ready for checking off and inserting into the report. Those early numbers could find their way out of the accountants office into the hands of people who know what to do with them, hence the large changes in IAG sp than the rest of the sector. Another possibility to consider - is the market getting 'wind' of the results and pricing in accordingly? Or is that just toooooooo cynical?

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/airlines-border-closures-variants-concern-b1999101.html

end to border lockdowns? Anybody listening?

seems to be a general pull back run by the bots. It may just be the inflation variable in the algorithms has a higher index than other variables. Also, the debt exposure is much more leveraged against minor interest rate rises than before. I think this is a bot correction in the absence of some headline positives.

Right, I accept criticism that some of my posts are a bit far from the precise board topic, but at least I raise points that within the 360 that can affect airlines, indeed IAG, there is a degree of relevance and points to bear in mind.

But what is jotom going on about? I'm trying to make the link, but I can't.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/boeing-warns-pilots-of-possible-worst-case-5g-interference-scenarios/articleshow/89086882.cms

A good breakdown of the 5G problem and some indication at least from Indian pilots that this issue is someway from being cleaned up. If there is bad landing, or worse a hull loss in the next week or two then aviation could be hit significantly for a while. Another degree in the 360 to keep a close eye on if day trading.

https://bdaily.co.uk/articles/2022/01/24/government-supports-aviation-industry-as-demand-for-air-travel-rises

Details about UK slot rule changes

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14001104000167/Ani-Lckdwn-Presers-Smash-EU-Diplmaic-Service-HQ

And there is a lot more of this coming. Incidentally, the ghost flight business is about to explode in the EU faces too, the slot use reduction for UK to be ended March 27 whereas the EU has raised the bar earlier. As all things EU are a do or die competition to beat/win the UK expect some retaliation from the EU against the UK as they are increasingly doing. One to keep an eye on because there are people in the commission who do not like the continuing prominence of BA whilst EU legacy carriers are struggling and struggling due to EU slot rule errors.

jotom? Err?? What on earth has any of that to do with people posting their ideas of IAG prospects. Your correlation between people who doubt the prospects of IAG, or any other share, with all the ills of humanity, and of course you have to drag up Hitler for some bizarre reason, is actually deeply offensive. Some people hail the virtues of a company and sing the praises. Some identify troubles and vocalise caution. Every share can be interpreted equally according to the manner of analysis and bias of the investor. But to claim that if someone is cautious over a share, then they are by some measure an evil person out to destroy vulnerable people with a Nazi zeal is utterly preposterous.

I don't know where you copied and pasted that from, it looks like a Guardian monologue or off the BBC website, but trying to latch that condemnation on to people who may raise caution, negative opinion or counter-argument is pretty debased.

You need to examine your own conscience and make yourself a better person!

Just keep the EU out of it, we mustn't have a repeat of the Balkans fiasco. Slobadom was a slimy critter, Putin is ten times worse.

This looks like the source of the stats, it is number of pax cumulative, not unique
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR

This is an easier viewing of the breakdown
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_airline_passengers

How remarkable, Ireland is above the UK and India! I would love to see these figures normalised against population size of the country. That might put Ireland as the most frequent fliers. I didn't see that coming. Explains why Ryanair is massively upping its Irish routes count into 2022.

You misunderstood. The Economist article appears to say 4.5bn people rather than 4.5bn journeys. Nearly all the 4.5bn would be on return flights which would mean 9bn flights. As you point out, one person can easily take 18 flights. So 4.5bn seats, maybe, but not half the world's population taking a flight.

"2019, when 4.5bn took to the air."

Really? Out of a world population of 7.9 billion, more than half flew in an aeroplane in 2019? I find that very hard to believe. Is there some double counting there, i.e 2 flights for 1 person on a return trip? And is it also a figure derived from the number of seats flown and assuming each seat had a unique passenger? And some people make multiple trips a year. I think that number has been pulled of a quickie google search from some pea brained statistician that made some rather basic assumptions. 4.5bn seats might have flown, but not 4.5bn unique passangers.

British Airways is named as an interested party with ITA too. Delta has stepped out but the report didn't say BA had also stepped out.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/lufthansa-40-stake-ita-airways/

https://worldairlinenews.com/2022/01/22/qatar-airways-statement-on-airbus-a350-aircraft/

This link has the video and Qatar statement to the court.

That damage is far more extensive than intimated in reports so far. I am no aircraft engineer but I would withdraw the airworthiness certificate without hesitate. There is clearly a very serious problem with the paint bonding and the paint itself.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/qatar-a350-paint-damage/

Whilst some dismiss the cancelling by Airbus of 50 new aircraft for Qatar, there could be knock on issues given the size of the stake Qatar has in IAG. In the politics of the boardroom, Qatar might try and use it's influence to retaliate against Airbus and the EU [these deals are always wound up in national and supranational webs]. This could impact on new deliveries to IAG airlines. And of course there is the issue that the peeling paint and hull cracking might be very serious and something Airbus are trying to cover up which could suddenly blow up into a grounding of a lot of planes. One of the 360 issues to keep your eye on me thinks.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/omicron-ba-2-stealth-new-covid-variant-b1998546.html

News spreading, will market panic in response or shrug shoulders?

Wait for the expert lobby to set out their pitch in response to testing being fully withdrawn. There was someone on R4 this morning arguing for a permanent worldwide establishment of perpetual testing. Over the pandemic there have been a few promoting self-interest campaigns to institutionalise mandatory testing. It should be resisted. All testing should be eliminated asap to avoid any permanent structure being set in. I am sure they could get enough information if they had a voluntary scheme though.

These new variants are going to be used by the expert community to keep extensive testing regimes in place, especially at borders. They have secured the biggest human laboratory they could ever have wished for with covid and they are not going to let it go easily. Looking at the level of susceptibility currently around the world to scares of omicron spread despite the overwhelming evidence it doesn't amount to much compared to a heavy flu season, it looks to me like the expert community will be able to hang on to travel testing for a long time with the human lab rats unless there is a strong campaign to stop using humans in some grotesque human laboratory experiment.

The news wobbles is that it is now a variant under investigation in the UK. I think that is one step up from the level it was at last week.

https://www.bernama.com/en/world/news.php?id=2045597

Tin hats?