Member Info for big-blue

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/24/nato-reinforces-eastern-borders-as-ukraine-tensions-mount

for those of you who wear blinkers!!!

"“All members of the European Union are united. We are showing unprecedented unity about the situation in Ukraine, with the strong coordination with the US,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters in Brussels."

HILARIOUS!

ooppss

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-russian-forces-amass-on-ukraine-border-nato-deploys-ships-and-fighter-jets/

forgot a link. Seems that EU policy is moving away from appeasement and the start of the build up to line up arms against Russia is starting. My money is on Russia standing down!!!!! Place ya bets...

News reporting lots of countries now building up a defence force. If the narrative now turns to one of there is a desire to enter armed conflict to resist Russia, I predict a rapid back down from Russia with some ethnic territories handed over. I presume the diplomatic meetings may have cut the deal under various scenarios.

I am sitting on the wall considering options looking for when is the right time to buy in, and once in when is the right time to sell out. Many people assume this is a two sided game, you are either on one side or the other and anything posted is deliberately chosen or edited according to which side you are on.
I don't do that actually. I am definitely more prone to look for the issues that could cause problems since it is fat easier to get caught out than it is to spot a pre-spike opportunity. The bottom line is to figure out what the iis are thinking and move just before them. It is also fun poking people to see whether you get intelligent reactions or people just spout abuse or inconsequential rubbish. My greatest source of amusement on this bb is from people who try to sound intelligent, but who clearly have trouble counting higher than 10. I post when I have some free time, of which I am running out of today.

I've done a deep sweep of news publications and shared some findings and thoughts with people. Take it or leave it.

What exactly was the point of that post Portland?

Carter - Lebonon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_Force_in_Lebanon

However, I would disagree and say if the US/Nato were to start talking war, real war, Russian would settle for a few ethnic towns and a minor extension of it's border. I am not convinced Putin was actually tooling up for war. Just a classic show of strength military parade. But the no-war US reaction so far [and EU splitting with France and Germany looking to collaborate] may have gifted Putin he didn't expect.

"Airlines will need to use their slots 70 per cent of the time in order to keep them, but will also benefit from added flexibility over when they are justified not to use them, e.g., where a market is substantively closed."
https://www.internationalairportreview.com/news/173624/uk-government-offers-slot-relief-as-air-travel-to-rise-in-summer-2022/

Many of the news articles I'm reading about the slot review are actually missing the most important bit which is why the airlines and airports are in favour. Flexibility will be retained whereas it is not in the EU which is the big important difference - until the EU retaliates in some way of course.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-flies-39-warplanes-towards-taiwan-as-tensions-with-island-rise-12524148

....and of course, this issue is also building up....

tut, who would be a stock market investor?

.... and let us not forget the other ace Russia holds up it's sleeve. Airspace for eastward long haul! 'Western' airlines could be hit very hard if the Siberian corridor is closed to selective airlines.

I am of the opinion now that the market reaction today is over the US withdrawal of embassy staff. There has been an 8 year war going on with the Russians and Ukraine since the Crimea invasion, some 14,000 killed in action and many incursions from Russia. During the 6 month build up of armaments at the border there was no notable sp impact. Talk of a Russian invasion over the last month or so doesn't seem to have had any major impact on sp either.

But I think the way the US has been dealing with the build of Russian forces as a prelude to an actual invasion rather than
bargaining leverage, and now the US moves as if a real invasion is going to happen, is perhaps spooking markets more than I first thought. And whereas before the build up of forces may have had no invasion intention, the unexpected capitulation policy of the US, assuming invasion whatever - so policy is how far to stand back, may have given Putin an opportunity he didn't expect and hence there will be some land grabs. I had estimated there would be 'nibbling' at the border with Russian ethnic towns, but Biden seems to have pulled back a red line much further. In the absence of hard fight talk in Washington, it does look like Putin will be allowed to take a rather large chunk of Ukraine without fear of US or Nato resistance. Such weakness could spiral out of control with Putin taking the opportunity to push too far, to hard with high colateral and hence Nato being forced into open war with Russia defending some arbitrary red line outside Kiev. So I would say the market is beginning to price in a degree of real armed conflict in Ukraine. How deep will that go? One statement form the Kremlin and the whole thing could be reset and the sp makes a rapid rebound, one statement from the White House and Russian forces move in and the market must presume the worst and crashes!

But out of a wide range of factors, I am now presuming Ukraine is playing an increasingly influential part in where the sp is [compared to covid, interest rates, inflation, removal of restrictions on travel , jotom soliloquies].

RoyGa,

https://www.ratesetter.com/invest/isa/you-can-have-more-than-one-isa

You now, I didn't know that. I think I set one up years ago and the rules of TD Waterhouse made out you can only have one - back then or maybe just their own house rules. I moved to iWeb a few years ago and never gave it any thought about opening others, or that it was possible.

I have learnt something today, and I thank you for that.

Is joto the new social elite here to look down hsi snobbish nose at the plebs and their minor pay packet investments? The arrogance in the attitude laid before us this morning is remarkable. Jotom seems to find it quite unconscionable that other opinions than his own could amount to anything worthy of comment, hence the constant reference 'to go in to detail' - you see that would beneath his station to debate with and untouchable , which he clearly things the rest of us are.

I will argue my point with vigour and test a sparring opponent to the limit testing their assertions. But to dismiss the untouchables with such a metaphoric wharf of your toilet hand is pretty much beneath contempt for your fellow man. And you, YOU are the one making grand emotional speeches about respect and empathy. Go away and learn how to make yourself a better person.

:) Just checking. Some low life spread bet syndicates try every trick in the book.

2 ISAs?

Do you work for the BBC jotom?

You seem to share their absolute intolerance of any view other their own.

It is your way or no way? Where did you get these divine powers to cancel other opinions? You are the dangerous ones in democracy and peace - how ironic you, YOU, try to label others as Nazis!!!!

One cross link to make out of the news, the slots rule change on March 27th, the proposition that day 2 testing and all testing for unvaccinated being removed. Has a deal been done? My only from with this would be waiting 2 months for the removal of day two test. There is no reason for it now except to be used as lab rats for the convenience of academics.

"Unionized crew"

Perhaps if we exposed the crew to more lethal doses of radiation, we could then have ionized crews!

lol, sorry - I just could not resist that....

"“Complicated, costly and unstable travel rules have seen UK passenger numbers and international connectivity recover slower than our European neighbours,” the leaders say."

This, within the Independent article, was a very deliberate 'nudge theory' policy specifically designed stop people flying. The length of time the policies have been in place indicates there is an attempt to 'reset' the concept of flying as simple as getting on a bus, back to some big rare event. There are huge wars going on in Downing St between various lobbies and if Boris is replaced by an environmentalist, unlocking air travel back to pre pandemic freedom will be more difficult. Boris has failed as a leader giving all the lobbies to much freedom to fight amongst themselves and UK aviation and travel has been a big loser in those fights. The nudge theory lockdown lobby will find it more and more difficult to qualify restrictions or objecting to new rules stopping the knee jerk restrictions of the past. As investors, we have to hope that Boris's replacement early in February is a rational on the environmental climate change side or else recovery will be up a steeper slope.

Why does livestock keep reposting what I post as if it was an exclusive find? This is happening multiple times now. It is great when people add or expand on a point, especially with references. But is this some sort of competition I am unaware of?