Member Info for big-blue

The olympics start 4th February. End 20th. Chances Russian will upset the Chinese trying anything during this window? I say virtually zero. So this is the window for the chess end game. Expecting a lot of shuttle diplomacy up to the 20th and a deal in the last week of February. However, I don't expect such a big sp bounce for the markets as it becomes clear there will be no war. I think that is priced in as a 99% probability now given the russians have had years to make a move. The recent build up of forces was merely leverage and I am sure that is priced in. I think the US federal interest rate situation is still the dominating factor in the markets. Specific sector related news will have the capacity to move the sp a few % up and down but as IAG results are a big benchmark for the sector, I think there will be a best 5% up trend upto IAG results. Whilst the numbers will be estimated correctly, omicron taking a big bite, it will be the statements around cashflow, credit use, remaining credit available, business plan re credit and basically whether further funds are to be raised by whatever means or relying on revenue. By the results time too, I would expect a lot of places to have abandoned fit to fly tests, and future bookings beginning to influence the expected significant shake up of the sector. There is more and more talk of endemic and living with covid whatever happens.

You know, something in the way Danphoic tries to construct an argument, very reminiscent of bengi boy. Are you back air lickin' bengi boy? Had your lunch yet? Had your favourite cheese strings and carton of apple juice?

There you go Danphonic. Absolute total complete 100% unmitigated proof - slam dunk, they are all the same individual. You are such a clever person!

I have to pitch in here to be alongside fortnum and bobbins. Watch danphonics brain boil.

There is nothing more dangerous than someone who becomes 'increasingly' certain they are right and everybody else is wrong. Locked in a self-affirmation loop.

"Many experts have called for the daily publication of Covid cases, deaths and hospital admissions to be scrapped or put into context with other illnesses."

I was saying this as far ago as last spring I think.

And this is nothing, just wait until the real truth about masks comes out. And then of course the increasing count in people with lung problems having spent a couple of years breathing in lungfull after lungfull of synthetic fibers. Thos republicans that made mask wearing an anti-Trump logo started something they will regret for decades to come.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10454515/Psychologists-slam-Governments-nudge-unit-use-grossly-unethical-scare-tactics-Covid.html

I've raised this before. Gove must go. The pandemic could have been handled in a far better way. Power mad cretins have ruled the roost, it is not too late to get rid of them.

The next major nudge to remove is the madness of banning internal combustion engines. A complete breakdown of society is only a few years away unless this hangover policy from being in the EU is terminated immediately. This is why I would never hold airline shares long term whilst this climate change crap continues.

I doubt Biden knows what he wants, including for dinner. His handlers however, they may want a diversion from the domestic politics, namely the continuing problem of not having a proper investigation into election fraud claims (as there was over the Trump victory) and the growing complaints over how the rioters [I'm being generous there] are being treated compared to the previous BLM and other left wing violence and riots across the US. The divisions in the US are getting very much deeper and much worse as the Dem keep refusing proper investigations on a par with those against the Trump campaign. More than half the country wants a proper investigation to have closure. Meanwhile the rather extraordinary extent of the FBI investigations into the riots treating all concerned as terrorists and prosecuting flag wavers on a par with suicide bombers is getting a growing backlash. As far as wanting a Ukraine war for a distraction, that will require Putin to want one too. I don't expect he ever wanted all out war, just take ethnic territory back [echoes of Hitler]. Now he needs to extradiate himself with as much gain as possible to qualify the incursions over the last few years. Game of chess, in the end game. If anything, the US might use false flag tactics to try and trigger Putin to fight!!!!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17476734/brit-dies-massage-parlour-thai-party-resort/

If your times up, not much better ways to go

A lot of very happy middle aged men hearing Thailand open for business again.

https://www.metro.us/bank-of-america-says-3/

7 rate hikes v 3 or 4 predicted. That goes from controlling inflation to slamming the breaks on too hard and causing a recession. No wonder markets have taken a bad view. Fed still dominating share prices.

Forecaster - Member Since
28th Jan 2022
Posts 1

So, how long before the inevitable happens? I'll open the book at 5 posts.

Sorry, it was Autograph - Nam Nuzhen Mir not Telegraph. Old mind playing tricks again

I remember the moment I knew there would never be a nuclear war. Gorbachev had taken the throne. One evening in the 80s there was a bizarre one off TV program. It was a studio full of housewives in the UK talking to a studio full of housewives in Moscow [via interpreters]. I remember thinking they had exactly the same belittling attitude towards their men and the same complaints about how useless their men were in Moscow as in the UK. There was something strangely reassuring that the housewives viewed the men with the same contempt. I think the idea behind the discussion was a loose dig at Thatcher being a former 'housewife' but I new somehow that a hand was being reached out. The same happened at Live Aid with the Russians joining in with a band called 'Telegraph' from a studio in Russia. They did two songs I think. I noted the second song sound almost identical to the first.

So I never found out whether the nuclear blast radius centered on my town would match what the Greenpeace map predicted when they get yabering on in the town center. I never understood what was so special that we would warrant being ground zero. I also never understood how the blast wave would manage to go over hills and back down into valleys, several times.

Its the end game. Putin has played the insurgence game for several years and it is becoming a drag. Expect the solution to be a 'democratic' vote in the two regions to either separate or stay. Or could be a muddled duel agreement or something along the NI model. A few years can be bought for a cease fire handing it over to some overpaid UN peeps to come up with a plan. Putin's hand is much weaker than we think with a conflict dragging on, but he has not had a robust reaction from 'the west' until the last week or two. Now there is some kick back by the west, the propaganda and face saving manipulation to cease fire can go ahead. This is actually an interesting tactic to study for the future. Just completely ignore aggression and engage in infighting instead. Leaves the aggressor standing on the hill looking down scratching his head thinking, "where are the enemy, how do I treat if there is no enemy to retreat from"?

mmmm,,,,,.... frowning face.

Have been having trouble getting my usual fiver a day hire car rate in the Canaries - Tenerife. Seems due to the drop in tourists a lot of the hire cars were taken off the islands, so it is now like £50 a day! Hope they ship them back to meet demand by March.

Best ever, Gran Canaria. They took the £1500 off the card as a payment rather than marking the funds. After dropping the car off, they put the £1500 back on the cc. The exchange rate had changed. My one and only forex trade, via a cc, resulted in the actual cost of the hire car paid for with the exchange rate change. It's all true, took me ages to understand what was going on with the statement. I love it when they let children loose dealing with customers. They maybe cheap, but my god are they dumb!

Ed1, the EU project was based on a deep anti-American sentiment around the Benelux countries and the plan was to build a superstate to counter and outweigh the USA. It hasn't gone according to plan due to independent regional histories, and language barrier. Esperanto was supposed to have sold that problem. It is a never ending source of intense irritation that English became the principle communication language between nations, especially to the French who still hang on desperately to things like a bilingual Olympics and the Strasbourg farce.
As far as following Nato lead, remember the French continuing supplying Exocet during the Falklands to the Argentinians to replenish stocks after hitting UK warships and the rather selfish non combative stance with Saddam Hussein to protect French oil interests in Iraq [it was supposed to be US fighting for oil but it was in fact the French who had massive oil interests there].

I wouldn't trust the French or the Germans at all with this conflict which is my biggest worry. I still reckon Putin never expected to have the door so wide open to march into the Ukraine and only over the last week can he start deploying the western aggression propaganda as a move to sue for peace and save the day. I mean, faced with 5000 German helmets, what else is he supposed to do?

You heard it here first. It is my understanding, IIMU, one of the big difficulties behind the investigation and why the chief of the Met has taken on investigating minor fixed penalty notice misdemeanours, is - because Downing Street Met protection officers attended some of the gatherings with the Young Conservatives interning and working at junior level. IIMU there were armed officers drinking alcohol. Therefore, this is about to explode way past FPN and instead become very serious. And in the same way Boris can not be held responsible for managing civil servants, he can't be held accountable for managing the met protection squad.

The energy crisis will get a lot worse irrespective of the Ukraine situation. We need a complete U-turn on the devastating climate change policies that are slowly but steadily ripping society up.

Hurtle, you play on the biggest lie spread about vaccines. They are not a cure, they are not a medicine as people like you try to argue. They assist the body in being able to fight a disease once contracted. They can not stop contraction. Therefore, a statistic saying how many vaccinated people have the disease is completely irrelevant. It is why the daily count of cases is meaningless and many in the expert community you never hear in the media, or are misquoted by people like you, find the daily stat quite stupid.

ALL vaccinations educate your EXISTING immune system to be ready for a new disease. This gives the body the ability to attack an infection and remove it without the body reacting in any noticeable way, reduce the severity of symptoms to nothing more than discomfort, or if the body is overwhelmed the immune system still may have just enough prepared strength to win the battle.

In all instances from the lowest level infection to the worst case, your body creates antibodies in response to the presence of the disease in your system. This happens whether you are vaccinated or not. Therefore there will always be vaccinated people showing positive for the simple reason a vaccine does not stop you catching anything, it only helps the body fight it.

But you don't want to know it as you think this is an argument where if you just dig your heels in then the real world will magically align to your belief system. It won't. If you do not vaccinate your immune system you are vulnerable to the disease getting a hold and overwhelming you. Maybe you will be lucky and your natural immune system will win. Maybe you won't and another story will be passed around where your loved ones tell of your covid death as an anti-vaxxer and we will hear them plead with people to get vaccinated.

Germany's entire EU policy has been orientated to maximising its own profit from all the other EU states, especially using credit. Collateral damage to other EU industries is of no concern to them. So an independent policy on energy is of no surprise. Germany made a major error in nuclear policy closing all it's nuclear power plants believing in the lie that 'renewables' [huh!] would replace them. The big lie about renewables is slowly dawning. So they have backed up with gas which their own climate change policies for bid. Also, they only have coal within their borders and again they have cut themselves of from that. So they are reliant on Russia for the main bulk of energy. If Russia cuts the supply, most of Germany will have intermittent power but only if there wind blows within a narrow speed range for the limited turbines.

This is a catastrophic failure of energy planning, something the UK also has issues with due to the never ending delays to building new nuclear power plants.