RE: How does Fed policy affect IAG31 Jan 2022 07:11
"Isn't it a certainty that the SP will be +30% sometime in the next year or two if the pandemic ends?"
Maybe, maybe not. As seen over the last week or so, other factors such as fed discussions and speculation were having a far bigger impact than any apparently logical good news. People saying the sector is 30% less recovered than xyz other sector, THEREFORE it must, by default, rise 30% no questions asked are grasping at straws. Markets just do not work like that. Money sloshes from one sector to another in slow motion over the years, it sloshes around preference shares that go in and out of favour over months and then there are those that receive intense speculation and romantic attention and can spike and crash in a days. How many times has it been a cast iron logical default slam dunk that this or that share MUST rise because of sunlight or darkness? And then in the cold hard world or real markets, what happens? No, there is nothing guaranteed. If you get a margin, cash in. Buy again, get a margin, cash in. Buy again, get a margin, cash in.