Member Info for Biffadog

Thinking forward, I'm assuming that the 2019 drill options for the PBLJ have been pushed back by two months due to the overrun from the Repsol contract. After the HUR EPS work Zenor Petroleum have her for 5 months. The drill options are reliant on cashflow from the EPS, so I assume the later the PBLJ is available in 2019, the better. Can anybody add anything to this ? GLA.

Hi Boyzee, No problem. I have spent enough time in PMO to have had more than my fill of CBs and CB Arbitrage. Keep up the posts on TA, as I always find your quick summary of the relevant pointers of interest. GLA.

As I say, The CBHs have their position nicely covered. Take the 7.5% coupon and they can always convert once the SP has taken off if they so wish. Their priority is securing a nice "risk free" 7.5% interest rate. They will only convert at the point in which they wish to sell the shares or use them to close down the corresponding short positions, so why would they convert now, as it simply doesn't make any sense to do so. Some posters were saying to expect a load of CB conversions when the SP hit 40p and it just hasn't happened. These are specialist hedge funds that have no interest in converting their CBs to equity at the earliest opportunity and selling or holding like a plain old shareholder. Another red herring is that the CBHs are going to hold back the SP. The result of their short positions is negligible and when the real news arrives it becomes irrelevant. GLA.

Hi Boyzee, I'm not surprised at all that no CBHs have converted. Why would they when they have a tasty 7.5% coupon covered with a bit of CB Arbitrage and not only that, the first 2 years coupon payments are held in escrow by HUR and as such guaranteed. Should HUR's SP suddenly fall off a cliff, the shorts cover the downside to boot. GLA.

No worries Plebleens. Reasoned debate backed up by actual facts and figures has been in short supply on here but hopefully that is starting to change. I'm more than happy to call out the deliberate falsehoods and misinformation on here when appropriate. For example, Catcher is off loading 500k barrels approximately every 8 days, which equates to a production figure of 60k bopd. It can be easily verified by using this AIS Marine Traffic website and just checking in a couple of times a day every 8th/9th day to see an oil tanker beside BW Catcher. I know because I check. http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:0.713/centery:56.770/zoom:14 Anybody who says Catcher is not producing at a steady 60k bopd is simply lying. GLA.

Hi Plebleens, That was exactly my point. Polygon are just conducting a bit of CB Arbitrage and these shorts will disappear once the remainin CBs are converted to equity. This was exactly what happened last time around when Polygon were holding just under a 5% short position which went down to 0% virtually overnight. GLA.

Probably worth pointing out that Polygon Global Partners declared a short position of 0.51% on the 14th June. Polygon were one of the biggest holder of PMO CBs (if not the largest) and held a massive short position (just under 5%) at one stage, as part of a CB Arbitrage trading strategy. These short positions disappeared as soon as the CBs were converted to equity and the resulting new shares were used to close the respective shorts. It's important to understand that these short positions are not shorts in the purest form were they are simply a bet on HUR's SP going down over the medium/long term but simply part of an overall CB Arbitrage strategy. I've attached a short clip that explains it all in fairly simple terms. As a result of this you can expect the short positions taken out by the like of Polygon and Och-Ziff to increase as the SP rises. The bottom line to a HUR shareholder is that it's nothing to worry about. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osFtOp53HKU GLA.

Great site laserdisc. Site also shows wave heights etc Well worth bookmarking for when the AM arrives on location at Lancaster and looking for that gap in the weather to hook up the buoy. GLA.

There was a tiny 10 minute window this morning where you could have bought PMO shares at a fraction under 108p. That has now gone. I hope you guys that are still waiting to buy made the most of that opportunity. GLA.

Why spread false information. That BlackRock order was filled on Friday and in all probability was the 14M UT. The date on the TR-1 (attached) shows this to be true. http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/premiere_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1168&newsid=1055387 AND before anybody picks up on the declared shorts over 0.5% on ShortTracker+ saying that the end is nigh for PMO, it's worth pointing out that Polygon Global Partners have increased their short position to 0.59% and this is almost certainly as a result of CB Arbitrage, as was the case last time. Best of British to anybody taking out a long term strategic short position on PMO. Day to day shorting is another matter and can of course be very profitable. GLA.

For anyone who is interested in decent articles on the oil and gas industry, price trends, hedge fund positions etc you can do a lot worse than subscribe (free) to John Kemp at Reuters. John is an independent Senior Market Analyst and he provides a daily email that contains links to all the best articles on the O&G industry gleaned from the likes of the FT, Reuters, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal etc and he also includes articles he has written himself. The reason I have highlighted this is that his articles are hugely well informed and come with no agenda (hidden or otherwise), which is a refreshing change to most of the regurgitated garbage out there written by journalists with a fleeting knowledge of the industry. Just email him at john.kemp@thomsonreuters.com and he will include you on his mailing list. Apologies to all those who are well aware of JK already. GLA.

I can't help but feel that anybody who wanted to get in at under 108p has missed the boat. That bounce off the 50 SMA was pretty clear cut with real volume. The institutional buyers are back and providing the support that PMO have missed out on for years. Hope all of you that have been waiting so patiently to buy back in made your move. I'm sure you'll tell us all about in a few days time when you remember that you bought back in and the SP is moving along nicely. GLA.

That's the reason for the "proposed" increase of only 300 to 600k bopd. The market had been primed for 1M to 1.5M bopd. It will keep Iran, Iraq and Venezuela happy and at the same time placate the Russians with an increase in output. Russia aren't in a position to suddenly open up the taps anyway and any talk from them of $60 oil being fine and dandy is simply not true. So an extra 100 to 200k bopd for them should keep them happy. All will become clear after the weekend. Expect a volatile ride between now and then but hopefully this morning's news has put a bottom under PoO. It is absolutely nobody's interest to crash the price of oil any further. Trump has been placated at this level. All IMHO of course. GLA.

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/opec-said-to-discuss-oil-output-hike-of-300k-to-600k-bpd-20180618 GLA.

Interestingly PMO had already bounced up to 108p (bounce off the 50 SMA started at 8:40am) before the OPEC news hit the wires at 9:40am, when PoO bounced, so it wasn't driven by PoO on this occasion. OPEC latest if you don't already know, is that they are considering an increase of only 300-600k bopd to be phased in gradually and will commit to covering short term price spikes. GLA.

ricfle, So, what you are saying is, that a second FPSO is Plan B if they do not get a FO partner or sell the company. Fair enough. The time to starve HUR out was last year and it failed. GLA.

Hi IJWT, I just can't see this scenario ever happening and it's got nothing to do with financing it. No suggestion here of "Muskonomics" as that's clearly not the case. FFD requires a FO partner (single or multiple) and the only reason is that HUR have clearly stated they have no intention of being Operator and developing Lancaster any further on their own. They have been implicit about this on numerous occasions. They are happy to just get on with further exploration/appraising drills on GLA and GWA funded from the EPS and accumulate cash UNTIL they either find a FO partner(s) for some/all of their acreage OR sell off their acreage as it becomes fully appraised OR sell the company outright. Why complicate things trying to get a second much larger FPSO off the ground. It's just not in their plan and rightly so. All IMHO. GLA.

Hi fecm, You are correct in your understanding. I think there is some confusion surrounding this but this was exactly as described at both the PMO and RKH AGMs. FWIW rpoodle also clarified this point recently on ii. GLA.

"I heard it was K" well well. I find that very, very hard to believe. Kerogen are in for the end game and are not in the business of dropping a few shares here and there. They have so far sold not one single HUR share. GLA.

"Tweets from Rhomboid1 saying that CA is a forced seller once Hurricane exceeds 25% of the Fund. Not true. We have no such restriction. Our last trade was a purchase of 1 million shares at 44p. We have been shareholders for 5 years and remain hugely optimistic." tweets Bernstein today. Interesting that RB says that there is "no such restriction". This in itself is quite ambiguous. Does he mean that there is no restriction at all or that there is one, but not set at 25%. I personally don't think there is one because CA have held over 35% of their NAV in HUR in the past. I think they just sell to derisk along the way which is a perfectly sensible approach. The other question raised is whether or not the 1M purchase at 44p (recent low) was to support the SP. Quite possibly, as CA have plenty enough shares and don't really need to add the odd 1M here and there, unless somebody fancied a quick trade for Friday afternoon entertainment. The volume has really tailed off over the last week, so I think we are likely to be rangebound between say 44p-48p until further news or a significant move upwards in the price of Brent. Can't see it dropping below the 50 SMA (43p and rising). All IMHO. GLA.