Member Info for Biffadog

pijoe1212,

Splitting hairs to avoid answering the question, so I'll rephrase it just for you.

Say you don't get your 49p (or 48p or 47p or 46p or 45p or 44p or whatever it is you're waiting for) and the SP continues in a slow climb upwards from here, do you swallow your pride at say 52p or 53p or 54p (or whatever is applicable) and buy some HUR shares, or do you just let it go and watch it climb away from you.

It's a genuine question as I am intrigued how you would play it.

GLA.

I'm curious as to exactly how it work with you 46p boys (Mandrill, pijoe1212 and others).

If you don't see the SP drop to 46p and instead it continues to rise (personally I'd be surprised to see it go below 48p but that's irrelevant to the question), do you just swallow your pride and buy in at say 55p, or do you just say missed by target buy in price and don't bother buying any HUR despite the fact that you must believe it to be a good stock.

I'd love to know your thoughts on this. Don't all rush to answer at once.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

I misunderstood you. Apologies. I see what you mean, the CBHs convert to equity before HUR have enough cash to redeem the CBs early.

However, the point regarding VCP shares not actually existing until after the vesting period in November 2021, or in the event of a company TO, still stands.

As such, the VCP shares have no voting rights.

In the event of a company TO they are taken into account when the deal is settled and the BOD would see payment per share at this stage but will not have owned them pre settlement day and hence will not have had any voting rights.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

You say "Any TO is likely to give them time to convert without HUR having cash at bank to redeem"

This is just not true. If the CBHs choose to convert early they can only convert to equity and not cash, so the scenario you describe is simply not possible.

HUR can choose to convert them to cash under predetermined conditions but not the other way around.

THE CBs can only be redeemed for cash at the end of the five year period in 2022.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

The VCP shares do not have any voting rights until they actually exist. They don't exist until after the "vesting period" in November 2021 or until after an event such as the sale of the company.

Your calculations for dilution of Kerogen's shares are correct on the basis that all CBHs have converted. A rough guidelines is a 20% reduction in percentage of shares in issue.

GLA.

Hi Mario,

Top work.

Really appreciate all you recent posts. Informative and sharing decent information with all. As it should be.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

Just a small point but the VCP shares do not actually exist before either the end of the vesting period in November 2021 or until the company is sold, when they are taken into account. RT has about 26M shares (say 1%) but again that's pretty irrelevant and for this purpose he only counts as standard shareholder.

However, as you quite rightly say, the key point is Kerogen and just a small number of shareholders (Pelham or The Capital Group would easily do) could block any TO anyway.

That's why I said the whole scenario is just one big red herring. Why worry people over something that's just not going to happen ?

GLA.

The chance of a TO before the EPS system at Lancaster is up and running is virtually nil IMHO.

That opportunity went once HUR had secured the $530M to go it alone.

I think it's fair to say that HUR are feeling pretty damm confident, so are not going to sell on the cheap.

Therefore at the price they would require, the risk/reward factor just doesn't stack for any prospective TO partner.

It suits all parties to sit back, properly analysis the results of the EPS and put a sensible price on the assets at that stage.

The surreptitious buying of bonds and staging a hostile TO is a complete red herring. Not sure why you mention the BOD's shareholding, as it's minimal and play's no real part in any TO bid. IMHO.

That's my sixpence worth.

GLA.

ROS1,

FWIW a big percentage of the remaining CBHs are involved in a bit of CB Arbitrage and have been building up their respective short positions over the last few weeks in anticipation of the forced conversion.

They are the usual suspects, Polygon, Whitebox, Marshall Wace, WorldQuant etc and their combined short position is currently 2.75% or 21.4M shares (with 776.8M shares in issue).

These positions will get closed off when the 31.4M new shares hit the market, so that takes care of 2/3 of the new shares.

This leaves 10M new shares outside of the control of this bunch but others will have short positions under 0.5%.

There will be some CBHs who are just selling ahead of the issue and this will be putting some pressure on the SP but it's nothing like the volume from last time (231M new shares), so I don't think you will see the SP driven right down, as it was before.

If we get a sustained increase in the price of Brent, I think that will override the selling by the CBHs.

It will be interesting to see what it opens at tomorrow but my feeling is it will be back well above 120p again if oil sticks.

You mention Andy.p and I agree he was very knowledgeable but unfortunately he used his knowledge to intentionally twist the truth to suit his agenda.

GLA.

http://guerillainvesting.co.uk/2009/12/15/stock-bashers-3/

Read and draw your own conclusions but it's worth highlighting the first point
"Lesson 1: Stock Bashers never pick bad stocks...."

GLA.

well well or should I say pijoe1212 ?

Either way, you are the Master of The Dark Art of Sowing the Seed of Doubt....

“Nobody has jumped in because the technical risks are too high at this early stage, “ said Chris Cornelius, a British geologist and oil entrepreneur."

FWIW that's just this previously unheard of guy's opinion plucked from the ether.

Let me tell you how I think it is based on a conversation with Alistair Stobie at the AGM and other snippets picked up along the way.

Simply put, nobody thought HUR would pull off a $530M raise to pay for the EPS and like vultures they consumed the data and waited to pick HUR up for peanuts.

No offer was made. That's direct from AS in response to me asking him in front of 5 or 6 other investors.

The boot is on the other foot now, as all things being equal, HUR will have the cash flow to fund their own drilling (stated aim) and further production (if they had to, though not the preferred route).

So, why don't you stop spending so much time posting on here on what you so obviously believe is a duff, or highly risky investment, which I can only assume you have no intention of being part of.

It's time spent that you could be concentrating a bit harder at work, looking after your kids and saving up for the train fare to London once a year for the AGM.

If you did you wouldn't continually post with the intention of sowing doubt and undermining the company.

Please feel free to suggest AS lied, as I'm sure you will. However, I and a number of others were there at the AGM and I for one believe him.

GLA.

JoeSoap,

That's standard disclaimer type stuff from a fund raising document. It's a bit like the slip of paper in a medicine packet covering all eventualities. If you notice it also says "if any" after "volume of water produced.

Early water production arguments aside, there's a lot of posting that goes on here that is not in good faith. Shame on you that do.

Bottom line is if you think the risk is too high don't invest. Plenty of other places to put your money.

GLA.

Anybody that thinks water breakthrough, or coning as it's know in the O&G business, is a real problem, would do well to listen to Rob Trice at the Capital Markets Presentation from April 2017, where it is addressed at some length.

http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/58e4d292ad2a006c3094befe/58e4eb5e253d08b958000035

The chances of it being a problem are really minimal and this generally only occurs when the the well is being worked far too hard and too soon. Coning is reversible by laying off for a while anyway.

Like Greenmachine67, I have also attended the last 3 AGMs and indeed we met in the pub after the last one.
What I would say is that if you spend a significant amount of time posting on here, are heavily invested in HUR and don't make it to the AGM, then you are missing a trick.

It's your one chance to look these guys in the eye when you ask the questions that really matter.

IMHO water breakthrough is simply not an issue. I've discussed it with the main man too and am 100% happy with what I've heard.

I changed the title of the thread as got fed up with uninformed idiots talking of £5-£10 a share without having a scooby what the company and it's assets are all about.

GLA.

Why stop there laidback....could be £50 or more. Keep up the good work.

GLA.

Mandrill,

Your only posts on HUR are either suggesting the SP will drop back down to 46p (or less), making spurious comparisons between HUR and XEL (despite the fact that you and I both know there is no comparison between the two companies) and now bringing up the fact that the weather is likely to get worse in October.

I don't know why some of the others are entertaining you to be frank. Keep up the good work.

GLA.

Hi wessexmario,

I think you are 100% correct but unfortunately nobody is listening to you as they much prefer any old red herring to your simple explanation.

I'm guessing it's because it at least replaces the unsure discussion on PPPs.

GLA.

All you need is a bit of very basic TA supplied by our very own ricfle earlier on today in reply to Boyzee's wonder post.
Sometimes, I think people overcomplicate things. What's a penny amongst friends on a buy in price anyway ?

"Guys ...the sp is rising ... just a thought ... might be telling us something?" (Boyzee)

--------------

I think it is telling us, it likes bouncing off the 50 day MA. (Ricfle)

GLA.

Here, Here !!

Hi Sipp,

Totally agree with you. I fully expect a steady climb leading up to FOIL. Of course there will be retraces after each leg up, that's normal. I don't think 70p is unreasonable at all but it's anybody's guess really.

I think the SP will be very difficult to predict and quite volatile in the 6-12 month period after FOIL.

I envisage people coming in and out with the drilling cycles and general derisking pre any announcement on the ultimate success of FB in the WOS.

GLA.

Hi MUAS,

Thanks for the kind comment.

I simply cannot see Kerogen indulging in selling off small chunks of their holding to derisk.
It's simply not in their game plan. I spoke to Roy Kelly at the AGM and can only reinforce what he told me and that is that Kerogen believe absolutely in HUR and FB WOS and are in this for the long run and the best possible returns on their investment.

He certainly had a wry smile on his face when I suggested that it was probably the best $52M (at 15p back in April 2016) investment the company had ever made.

FWIW I'm keeping my holding until Kerogen cash out out in whatever form that takes.

GLA.