Member Info for Biffadog

Hi wellwell,

In point 2 you mention an article suggesting Statoil made an offer. The two companies were certainly in discussion but the talks fell through (link attached).

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5918723/MARKET-REPORT-Hurricane-Energy-thrust-limelight-BP-takeover-target.html

I say this because I actually asked Alistair Stobie at the last AGM a direct question about whether or not any offers where made to HUR during that period.

He was unambiguous with his answer in that no offers of any kind were made to HUR and went on to say that he was of the opinion that the major players thought HUR would fail to secure any funding (not an unreasonable assumption) and that they would pick up HUR for peanuts.

There were about 6 of us present at the time and if my memory serves me correctly, some are posters on here.

This makes perfect sense and it's not unusual for big oil to just "starve out" the little guy. Against the odds the HUR BOD came up with one of the biggest O&G finance deals ever for an AIM company.

We covered point 1 in detail a while back and I think the great majority thought RB's question regarding "selling" Lincoln for £500M rather absurd (happy to re post early detailed post).

I looks to me at least, that you seem to be back to subtly trying to undermine the HUR Bod. It certainly that way.

If you think the BOD are useless, please just come out and say it. Nobody will be offended.

Is that the case ?

Outside of the warrants fiasco (who knows the real story), I personally think they have played any absolute blinder so far and managed to avoid falling prey to the big guys. I would suggest that is the biggest single factor that could "rob" them and us of a decent return in the long run.

GLA.

Hi SIPP,

Not the right time to start a career in trading.

Don’t forget basic support is close by at 51p (50 SMA) and 48p (100 SMA) so not much further to drop, I suspect.

Forget 46p as I would be amazed if you see that again.

Great post by Arbitrader75.

GLA.

Hi Diver69,

I'm glad that you don't think HUR are a fraudulent company. Your post certainly could have led people to believe that was the case. Your post was a bit ambiguous to say the least.

I agree with you in that AIM can seem like a casino on occasions. I wouldn't like to comment further on here but I've certainly seen some interesting scenarios play out.

Xcite's woes and it's CEO have been commented on in depth on the XEL board and I think it's story is well known to most in the O&G investing sector.

Good luck with your investment in HUR. FWIW I think you might be onto something !

GLA.

Hi Diver69,

Suggest you avoid AIM shares as you seem to think they are mostly fraudulent. You seem to post these claims on a regular basis.

It's a shame that you seem to suggest HUR are fraudulent. Is that what you really think ?

Suggets you lay off making accusations like this, unless of course, you want to back it up.

Everybody knows (or should know if they are a regular investor) that the buy/sell ratio is nonsense anyway and purely a product of "best guess" as to what each trade was. That's why ii stopped producing such stats a while ago.

GLA.

Hi Ricfle,

I didn't work it out like that as I have a different view on what CA's strategy might be to you.

I looked at the last few reported tranches of sales and they were as follows (using 1.96B shares in issue).

11/7: 1.13% or 22M shares
16/5 and 1/5: 1.13% (0.28% and 0.85%) or 22M shares (I've grouped these together as they are only 2 weeks apart)

My view is not that CA are sticking to a rigid 25% of NAV at the moment. I hold the view that CA are looking to derisk their HUR holding before the EPS results are known to the market. If the EPS fails for any reason, the fall in the SP would be catastrophic for CA and whilst the risk is very small and us humble PIs might be happy to take it, I just don't think RB can run that risk with his fund.

At the end of the day neither of us know what his strategy is but he certainly has form for selling into any rise going right back to the 10p days, so I think it's safe to assume he will still be a seller along the way.

Only a TR-1 will give us the true picture.

GLA.

Hi wellwell,

I'd say for a small O&G company that's not yet producing oil, the SP (Mcap of just over £1B) is pretty high.

That would suggest that investors are very confident that FB will work as RT has predicted it will. It works the world over, so no reason it shouldn't work here given the findings to date.

Having said that, HUR managed a Mcap of £800M back in May 2017 and we were in nowhere near as good shape and close to FOIL as we are now, so hopefully plenty of upside to come.

Not sure why you suggest it's "the big fat elephant in the room" as this is a subject that's been discussed at great length and on many occasions on this board.

GLA.

I'd be surprised if it's not towed back to WOS.

Poll anybody ? (a joke)

GLA.

Hi Fred and Joe,

This was a strategically important deal for HUR. It was not designed for instant gratification but for long term reward to shareholders. I'm guessing you boys don't fit that profile.

Nobody (inc Ricfle) said the deal was going to put the SP through the ceiling.

As it stands, the SP is up and not down, so overall the market likes it.

As for your sub 50p projections, I think it is highly unlikely.

However, time will who is right and we will see where it goes over the next few days/weeks.

GLA.

Over the weekend a simple poll was run to see what people thought of the Spirit deal.

The deal had already been dissected and discussed at length on this board over the last week, so I thought it would be good to get a binary answer on it.

“Good Deal” or “Bad Deal”

I think it is useful for new investors and current investors alike, as you get a nice simple snap shot of what others thought about it.

It also meant that people who are sometimes more hesitant to comment, could have a say.

The poll is now closed and I think the results speak for themselves.

GLA.

Good Deal

Biffadog
Snowcameron
extrader
haggis_trap
Klepto
JayKay1
DRUSS
SpruceGoose2
wessexmario
SantiagoBouffant
shelfful
stix40
mrJimV
Apachewind
Happy To Learn
Sonofthebull
SIPPn00b
adoubleuk
yuyus
mallye
MUAS
Practioner
DickyH
Cherryvale
RainBowchaser
pijoe1212
escargot
ENTANGLED
pickswinger
Robbie68
Jacdaniels
johnpwh
MalcolmS
wellwell
Dubliner
Genghis15

Bad Deal

InJamesweTrust

Hi Moonlanding,

Look forward to seeing you at the 2019 AGM. I've a feeling we will all have much to be happy about.

I'm sure HUR have a few more surprises to spring along the way (GLA anybody ?), as well as the expected news on FOIL and such like.

I think it's likely that The Goat Tavern will be the venue for drinks afterwards, as it's been lucky for us thus far.

You'll be surprised at how many posters on here you will meet there. Most of the regular crowd were there last year.

https://www.greeneking-pubs.co.uk/pubs/greater-london/goat-tavern-mayfair/

GLA.

Hi Moonlanding,

My memory is a bit blank on who I sat next to. Did you got to the pub afterwards or did we speak at the AGM ?

I agree that Och Ziff have increased their short position in line with their CB arbitrage strategy but I'm not sure how significant that was in keeping the SP down. The change of 0.11% only accounts for about 2M share sales. I would expect to see further shorts appear from Polygon and Och Ziff as the HUR story unfolds. Nothing to be worried about as these are straight forward shorts but are hedges.

It will be interesting to see if a TR-1 is forthcoming from CA over the next few days. If they sold into the rise you could reasonably expect anything between 10M and 20M shares to have been traded. This figure is based on the more recent CA dealings in HUR. For the record, I'm not saying that they have sold any.

I've taken the liberty to change the thread title as we stopped discussing Solan a while back.

GLA.

Hi Sipp,

Whilst we didn’t get an immediate rerate of the SP, it has risen.

I still think it’s too early to say whether or not it will initiate a steady climb upwards and feel this will be apparent either way by the end of the week.

Don’t forget there was a huge amount of selling into the rise in the first few days of last week.

I think it will certainly put a lid on people selling after FOIL to derisk a bit, which is a good thing.

GLA.

Ricfle,

There have been no personal repercussions as a result of this poll.

I thought a line had been drawn under that one. It’s only you that keeps bringing it up now.

I’ve met IJWT after the last AGM and I can assure you that he is big enough and bad enough to look after himself, so don’t fret on his account.

I also think that in amongst the hubris of this board, the poll provides a nice little snap shot to new investors and current investors alike, as to what people think of the Spirit deal.

GLA.

typo "poll" not "pole"

and

should read "seemed happy to participate"

GLA.

Hi JoeSoap/Ricfle,

The purpose of the pole was to get a binary answer. Much as the BOD would have had to do, once the details had been thrashed out.

The discussion on the disadvantages and advantages of the deal had already taken place over the last week or so and everybody (except Rifle) had plenty of opportunity to comment in detail. Ricfle has since posted his views.

It also meant that people that are sometimes more hesitant to comment could just post a quick answer.

Nobody was forced to take part and it was also a bit of fun. Some added comments and nobody was chastised for that.

IJWT mentioned that the BOD should have put this to the vote. Whilst I disagree strongly with him on this matter, it's interesting to see how the result turned out.

Sorry it didn't work for you guys but the vast majority seemed happy to have to participate.

I'll post it up one more time on Monday morning to give the week day posters a chance to have a say.

Well founded negative posts on HUR are always welcome on this board.

GLA.

Hi escargot,

RT has satiated that "HUR do not want to be a producer" on more than one occasion.

On reflection, I think RT must be talking about HUR not wanting to be the Operator, because by virtue of even getting the Lancaster EPS up and running, they become a producer.

Again, by virtue of owning a stake in any future FFD, HUR are again oil producers, so I think it's the responsibility of being Operator they want to avoid.

This makes perfect sense because they are not set up for this role and their time is much better spent on exploration and appraisal drilling.

On a separate note, Solan is only producing at circa 4.5k bopd and infill drilling is not scheduled until 2020 at the earliest. I believe maximum capacity is 30k bopd (Solan was initially targeting 20-25k bopd) and the under water storage facility has a capacity of 300k bbls. So, certainly some options there in the short/medium term.

GLA.

Hi SantiagoBouffant,

Just read your post and you make two very good points regarding Spirit buying into HUR.

I think they have been somewhat overlooked in all the talk of sale price per barrel of 2C, drilling schedules etc

GLA.

IJWT says "There are many other strategic avenues without imperilling the company survival" (post at 22:42).

I know you don't like the deal. That's fair enough but you're way off the mark with some of your statements today.

Now you seem to be suggesting the company has been "imperilled" by this deal. Maybe time to call it a day.

By the way, the PBLJ was never booked. HUR simply had a no cost option to use the rig. Small point I know.

GLA.

IJWT "The drilling and activity proposed in the deal is no more extensive than that which could be achieved via cashflow."

This is simply not true.

I'm off. Apologies for so many posts.

GLA.