Member Info for Biffadog

Just to clarify that the GWA drilling campaign is totally independent from the Lancaster EPS. Confirmed by HUR.

GLA.

I'll keep it simple.

If RKH do not get a rerate after FID is agreed, then they will become a prime TO target for those wanting a slice of Sea Lion and the whole NFB on the cheap.

This could well mean that those on here waiting for the really big payout don't get to see it.

However, the compensation will be a decent multiple of the current SP and in a vastly shortened time frame.

Either way you win.

GLA.

Why don't you guys just ignore ifonly1. He is a troll or a fool. Thanks.

To put things equally simply, the original Halifax well data was limited. I think it is highly unlikely that with a proper and full data set from a new Halifax well that the 2C resources will not be revised and I'd be amazed if it wasn't upwards.

You seem to be saying that that the 2C figures for the GLA are set in stone. Doesn't sound very plausible to me.

GLA.

Ricfle,

I haven't mentioned "flowing the oil" in any of my posts. Blueclyde mentioned the flow rate, maybe that caused the confusion.

What I have said is that if the data taken from a second drill on Halifax is comprehensive and can prove that Halifax and Lancaster are linked, then there is scope to considerably increase the 2C Contingent Resources for the GLA. That is the simple fact of the matter.

If you don't agree with this statement, then there is nothing else to be said, other than we must amiably agree to disagree on this occasion.

GLA.

Ricfle,

Never heard of "P2 reserves". What is their definition ?

I disagree with you, a successful Halifax drill could well mean an upgrade to 2C resources.

GLA.

Ricfle,

Whilst any upgrade to 2P Reserves requires a plan and finance in place by definition, it's worth highlighting that if Halifax is drilled (new drill or reentry of original well) and the relevant data is collected proving that Lancaster and Halifax are all one large field spanning 30km along The Rona Ridge, then there will be a significant upgrade to 2C Resources.

If this is proven then this will have a significant impact on the SP.

GLA.

PMO's stated preference is to bring on board a Partner for Sea Lion. This is to further share out the risk as well as lightening the financial burden.

It could also be beneficial for RKH to FO say 10% of their share but that's a whole new post.

FO discussions cannot begin in earnest until the exact details of the finance package are in place.

Don't forget that RKH and PMO are going to have to renegotiate the exact detail of their arrangement too.

PMO can go it alone but I don't think it's their preference. Tony Durrant said so at the PMO AGM.

At the RKH AGM, David McManus said PMO can finance it themselves and a FO partner was "a luxury" for them but would be their preference.

I think it's worth remembering just how much oil is down there. It seems to get forgotten on here sometimes.

FID is planned to be taken by year end (hopefully) and there will be an estimated 6 month gap to mid 2019 to allow time for the UK and FI governments to sign it all off. This is just like getting OGA approval in the UK North Sea but with much longer time scales. So FID means FID and things can progress with the assumption of government approval.

Personally, I think it would be sensible to get another decent size player involved in the NFB and with PMO's finances improving by the day (investment grade by Q2 2019) and the structuring of the financial deal nearing completion, it is a distinct possibility.

At the moment PMO are doing all they can in the background whilst they are waiting on the ECA funding to be agreed. This is out of PMO's hands.

Now is not the time to sell if you are a LTH.

GLA.

Hi Boyzee,

The CBHs are covered anyway, even if there is there is fairly limited flow from the Lancaster EPS there will be enough cash to pay them back. HUR only need $220M to cover this off.

Many will be conducting a bit of CB Arbitrage anyway, so have the security of their respective short position on the stock.

If they do start converting you will see an RNS as new shares will have to be issued.

No CBHs have converted to date.

I remember when the SP first hit 40p and the lead up to that moment (40p is the minimum SP that the CBHs can take the Equity option) and "arguing" with Ricfle about how many would convert.
My view was that very few (if any) would convert and none did.

I don't think you will see any convert before FOIL.

FWIW I think you're just seeing a bit of a shake down, maybe some derisking pre FOIL and I personally would be very surprised if this went under 48-50p.

Would suggest it is a bad time for any LTH to panic and sell. Traders must do as they will and good luck to them too.

GLA.

Hi Boyzee,

Nothing odd going on.

The 100 SMA is about 50.7p and intraday the SP has dropped slightly below that.

If the SP dropped down to 40p then that would be odd, given the fundamentals.

GLA.

It's all about the risk/reward ratio.

Those that have done their research will know that the risk/reward ratio here is phenomenally good.

No more to say really.

GLA.

I don't normally respond to posts like that, but if you don't mind me saying, you don't sound like the sort of chap that actually has any money to invest or spread bet with. Just an observation.

GLA.

I suspect Capital Group are simply derisking a bit.

Now is the time to do it if that's part of your game plan. That applies to all on here too.

GLA.

daltry,

Suggest you copy and paste it back on the NANO board because that's where crap like that belongs.

Suspect the your are currently "out" as opposed to "super confident". This view being based on this post as well as your posting history on here. daltry the deramper.

Please feel free to back up your post with a reasoned argument.....

GLA.

IJWT,

My understanding was it was only an issue drilling in the near vicinity of the EPS and that drilling 30km along the Rona Ridge at Halifax was not an issue. I remember this being discussed at the AGM.

GLA.

Ricfle,

I agree with you that any drilling on GLA is likely to be later in 2019.

I think the 2 drill option on the PBLJ for Q2 2019 will expire or be put back until later on in the year.

However, nothing would please me more than to see a 2 rig drilling programme kick off in March/April 2019.

GLA.

"From what I can see Hurricane have no costs on the GWA until Q4 2019." (Ricfle)

I think that's correct but the point I was making (and I suspect Dubliner was making too) is that HUR need to start "saving" cash from the Lancaster EPS to pay for the Q4 2019 GWA work.

Maybe they will still drill GLA in Q2 2019 but I suspect they will play it safe and bank a bit of cash first.

GLA.

Hi Dubliner,

I hope you don't mind but I've changed the thread title as I think your post warrants it.

You have highlighted a very interesting point with regard to HUR being on the hook to pay $46.9M for the GWA Tie-Back. I guess it really depends how much of the $46.9M is needed in 2019 for long lead items on whether or not this has any impact on any drilling activities on GLA.

On an entirely separate note, I think last week's correction in the US market (hopefully that's all it was) is a reminder of how fragile the markets can be and with a number of global issues building up steam, I am all in favour of the BOD trying to monetarise HUR as soon as possible. A bird in the hand springs to mind.....and we don't have even have one in the hand at this stage.

GLA.

Hi SG2,

I'm not sure there is a loss of enthusiasm for further GLA drilling. I think it just took second seat to the Spirit FO, the AM nearing completion of works at Dubai and FOIL becoming a near term event.

Regarding your question on Halifax and Lancaster being one big field, I understand that RT strongly believes this to be the case but I think they need a further drill on Halifax or a reentry of well 205/23-A to prove it one way or the other.

GLA.

Ricfle,

Whilst there was certainly a 2 well option for Q2 2019 (with no cost to HUR if they weren't taken up) on the PBLJ, RT always stressed that HUR hoped to have money for at least one drill with the emphasis (IMHO) being on one drill only.

I personally don't think they will take them up now and will look at drilling the GLA area later on in 2019 once the EPS has produced a bit of cashflow and the Lancaster EPS has provided more data.

I really hope that they start in Q2 2019 and in this event, I think it will be one drill only on Halifax (reentry of 205/23-A or a new horizontal well).

GLA.