Member Info for Biffadog

Hi Ricfle,

HMS Dragon currently at the entrance to The Straits of Hormuz. I agree that this could well be coincidence as the Iranians haven’t kicked off yet.

Looks like you were indeed correct about the AM sailing under her own steam.

Not expecting a tick up in the SP on Monday either but would hope it would creep up as we get nearer to the WOS.

Once the buoy is hooked up it should get more interesting. I’m putting my money on 4 weeks to FOIL from that date.

Realistically, it would look to be January 2019 for FOIL.

Exciting times ahead for HUR.

GLA.

Hi Ricfle,

The fact that you spotted it makes you a ship watcher by default surely !

I noticed HMS Daring was just rounding the spot that the AM just set sail from. Be interesting to see if the AM gets a naval escort befitting the importance of her role in the WOS and all that.

PS: Not a ship watcher either....

GLA.

It's 6 weeks to Lancaster, including a stop off in Rotterdam to fit the flare stack, not 8 weeks.
Source: RT in an interview with Malcy

GLA.

Correction to last post. Should read "The SFB is a dead duck"

rpoodle is spot on regarding the SFB licences being relinquished. RKH aren't likely to ever drill them and neither is anyone else in the foreseeable future. Unproven, expensive to drill and in 1500m of water.

There are plenty of excellent drilling opportunities in the NFB just waiting to be drilled. Isobel/Elaine, Helen/Susan, Chatham etc

The NFB is a dead duck.

FWIW RKH are not in any danger of losing any NFB licences, so not sure where galileo1 is coming from.

GLA.

Hi WM,

Please post the link as my version still says "sea trials"

Cheers,
BD.

Hi SIPP,

I would expect a jump when we get the FOIL RNS and would hope for a slow rise leading up to FOIL.

We've already hit 60p, so I don't think it's asking too much to drift back toward that level as FOIL gets closer.

All IMHO.

GLA.

Same here JD but if you hit the "Route Forecast" button it will show you the planned route that will take the AM to the Suez Canal. That's not previously been shown.

GLA.

Nice little article from the IEA on oil supply/demand. Worth a quick read.

http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/october/omr-twin-peaks.html

On a day of absolute carnage in the O&G sector, the Rock actually managed to post a small rise.

Unbelievable.

GLA.

Great post SXX-P-P.

RT video clearly and concisely covers off the water issue i.e there isn't one !

I was almost waiting for RT to say "put that in your pipe and smoke it" at the end of that little clip.

Looks like the 100 SMA (50.6p) has held and we might even get a close over the 50 SMA (52.7p).

Hopefully all the LTHs on here held their nerve and didn't sell.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

I'm pretty sure that HUR require a period of about 6 hours with waves of less than 3m.

I should have said that I asked Neil Platt the question at the AGM regarding how long it would take from hooking up the buoy to FOIL and he despite a gentle push, he would not give an answer.

GLA.

Hi Genghis,

As a good comparison, BW Catcher arrived on field and hooked up the buoy within 24 hours. It's just weather dependant and requires wave heights of under about 3m.

FOIL took 10 weeks once the buoy was attached but as I said in a recent post, PMO's Catcher project had 12 wells and 3 distinct areas to take into account. HUR have only the 2 wells and 1 location, so my guess is 4-6 weeks.

At the AGM, Neil Platt wouldn't be drawn on the the commissioning time period after the buoy was hooked up, not how long it would take to hook the buoy up.

Hooking the buoy up is purely dependant on getting a short window of calm weather.

GLA.

50 SMA 52.8p
100 SMA 50.6p

I would suggest any LTHs think very carefully about selling now, as it looks to me to be very near the bottom of the dip and consequently a very poor time to be selling HUR stock.

HUR are in a long term uptrend and we will get dips along the way. Nothing to panic about.

GLA.

Hi CP,

BW Catcher arrived on field on the 18th October 2017 and had successfully hooked up the buoy by the 19th October. PMO got lucky a period of calm weather. Providing we get a 24 hour weather window with waves of less than about 2-3 metres, the actual hook up procedure does not take very long at all.

FOIL was announced on the 27th December but it's worth remembering that PMO's Catcher project was way more complex and at that stage entailed 12 separate wells split between 3 distinct fields.

I would have thought it was reasonable to expect FOIL 4-6 weeks after the buoy has been hooked up.

Hope that helps.

GLA.

Thanks WM. Top notch info as always.

Luckcounts,

I don't think you have taken into account share in issue, so your calculations on where the SP should be now do not stack up.

You need to compare Mcap at each stage you have highlighted to get any meaningful comparison.

Maybe it would help to post your workings to validate your claims.

GLA.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45733111

I looked at the last few reported tranches of sales and they are as follows (using 1.96B shares in issue).
It seems like he likes to offload shares in roughly 20M tranches.

4/10: 1.02% 0r 20M shares
11/7: 1.13% or 22M shares
16/5 and 1/5: 1.13% (0.28% and 0.85%) or 22M shares (I've grouped these together as they are only 2 weeks apart)

My view is that CA are not sticking to a rigid percentage of NAV.

I think that CA are just looking to derisk their HUR holding before the EPS results are known to the market. If the EPS fails for any reason, the fall in the SP would be catastrophic for CA, and whilst the risk is very small and us humble PIs might be happy to take it, I just don't think RB can run that risk with his fund. I think he has to be a seller until his position is covered from profits taken along the way.

Although I personally wish he wouldn't sell into any rise, keeping the lid on it to some extent (limited ?), I think it is prudent on his part to do so.

At the end of the day, nobody knows what his strategy is, but he certainly has form for selling into any rise going right back to the 10p days, so I think it's safe to assume he will still be a seller along the way right up to Lancaster EPS results.

GLA.

I think wellwell is absolutely correct in that RT means getting two FFDs in place and operational by the mid 20's in the Edison interview. He's not talking about FID or mid 2020.

We can argue what exactly the mid 20's constitutes, but for sake of argument, I would have thought 2024 to 2026 was reasonable.

What HUR could achieve by mid 2020 is another story and not relevant to the Edison interview. However, I still think getting FFD signed off for GLA and GWA by then is not remotely realistic.

GLA.