Member Info for Biffadog

GTLD,

Your £120k BUY at around the 99p mark last week is not looking so clever now.

Maybe now's the time to admit you just copied and pasted some trades onto the LSE board and aren't actually out of pocket.

Either way, it's not a great situation for you.

ralph201, labongus, carroteater, Kurgan3909, Olliesky and the gang all hard at it.

Keep up the good work boys.

GLA.

I don't think anybody can accuse PMO of "rushing into sanction and running into the project head first".

That's one of the funniest things I've heard on here for a while.

GLA.

Hey Sipp,

Relax man. It's all cool at HUR.

GLA.

Saudi's to cut supply by 500k bopd for the month of December.

This is outside of any unilateral agreement OPEC and the Russians reach.

http://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/11/saudi-arabia-in-talks-to-cut-oil-output-after-us-waivers-hit-prices.html

GLA.

Hopefully that will be enough to put the brakes on the longest losing streak in the price of oil in 34 years (1984).

Yes, 34 years. That's how bad it was.

If it doesn't happen tomorrow then the official 6th December OPEC meeting in Vienna when it all becomes official will reverse the trend. Of that there is very little doubt. Trump made a mistake when he stitched up the Saudis and got them to open the taps up.

My money is on a trend reversal starting on Monday.

What was quite interesting though is that HUR (and most of the other small/medium oil companies) dropped off to it's 200 SMA quite quickly and then even after Brent dropped a further $8.50 from the 29th October (nearly 11%), the SP held up reasonably well all things considered.

wellwell looks to have called the bottom correctly at 43p. Nice one.

Interesting day tomorrow.

GLA.

Hi JK,

Some confusion here I think. I wasn't including you in that category. Apologies if you thought I was. It was a bit ambiguous.

GLA.

Hi JK,

Most trades nowadays are A trades anyway. A meaning an automated trade. This doesn't mean they are anything to do with an Algo that has been set up with the specific aim of buying/selling throughout the course of the day with the aim of manipulating the SP up or down.

Posts on the subject generally see to be aimed at worrying investors who may not have too much knowledge on the subject. Unsettling tactics. Note they never get a mention when the price goes up. All IMHO.

GLA.

JK,

Don't get too hung up on Algo trades.

They are not as sinister as you seem too think.

I sometimes use Algos when trading with IG if I'm making a reasonable size buy (or sell for that matter).

I simply ask the desk to set my maximum price and choose to ride on the back of all the buy trades as they happen and we aim to pick up between a predetermined percentage (typically 10% to 25%) of the volume of those trades at the same price each trade was made. It won't manage to match them all, but it means I can buy under the radar in without upsetting the price. These trades will appear as A trades throughout the day. All sorts of other "normal" buying will appear as an A trade (as opposed to an O trade) so it's not something to spend too much time worrying about. Iceberg buying or selling also will produce A trades.

It's a useful option to have but in other cases it's best to just leap in a grab a load off the RSP (Retail Sales Platform) if you want an immediate price on a high volume buy.

I hope that helps.

GLA.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil/return-to-oil-production-cuts-in-2019-cannot-be-ruled-out-opec-sources-idUSKCN1NC1K8

I'm pretty sure oil is being set up for a big reverse trend starting Monday.

It's been taken down and down and it's primed and ready to be manipulated back up again.

OPEC and "allies" meet in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. Production cuts will be discussed as a prelude to the official 6th December OPEC meeting and leaked to the press Sunday evening.

They can't afford to wait another 4 weeks before announcing production cuts and these things are pretty much decided well before the official OPEC Vienna meetings.

US mid terms have been and gone, people seem to have forgotten about the journalist chap that came to a sticky end and it's become pretty apparent that Trump stiffed them all up on the Iran sanctions with waivers to one and all.

Hope I'm right as I bought shed loads of PMO at less than 100p.

GLA.

Given that TLW, PMO and RKH are all down over 6% I would suggest that HUR is holding up rather nicely on a day like this.

GLA.

Uncensored story of HUR's origins told by RT himself.

Key players are Jim Barney the taxi driver, James Huddleston and RT.

Read and enjoy....

http://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/125969/exclusive-hurricane-uks-basement-pioneer/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EV%20Daily%20Newsletter%202016-12-05&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

GLA.

PMO, RKH, TLW all down by a similar amount. Must agree with wellwell that this is not HUR specific.

OPEC lads having an unofficial (pre OPEC Official 6th December meeting) to discuss possible cuts. They have already said this much.

Don't be surprised when this gets leaked on Sunday evening and oil magically recovers on Monday and starts a new up trend.

They really have no choice and Trump did stitch them up by asking for extra supply to cover Iran going to zero exports by the start of November and then letting all and sundry have a free pass on buying Iranian crude.

Great time for the brave to buy. I'm hovering over the BUY button on PMO myself, for a bit of instant gratification come Monday. Just need to get over the fear factor and press it !!

Whether you buy or not, I still think it's a very poor time to being selling HUR shares.

GLA.

Albi1 and Straycat,

I wish you every luck with your "substantial" and "significant" holdings in HUR.

Your warnings of impending doom but a great long term future have been heeded by all I'm sure.

Good luck boys.

GLA.

Straycat,

Comparing HUR to GKP is frankly laughable.

They are poles apart and have completely different fundamentals.

MW have a small short on HUR (currently 0.6%). It's been there since June 2017 (started at 0.5%) when the Convertible Bonds were issued, so whilst I can't prove it, I would suggest it's highly likely that they form part of a Convertible Arbitrage play, which is something MW specialise in.

The GKP shorts were taken out for another reason entirely and that's because people thought the company would fail or at least suffer a huge collapse in the SP due to unsound fundamentals, cash-flow being a key reason.

If you don't understand the difference between these scenarios, maybe you should bone up on it this evening.

GLA.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil/return-to-oil-production-cuts-in-2019-cannot-be-ruled-out-opec-sources-idUSKCN1NC1K8

GLA.

Just noticed that 6M shares have been traded already today, so we have some volume to back up the rise in SP.

GLA.

"HUR is in a period of inactivity" (Boyzee)

Not sure I agree with you there. Arrival at Lancaster is possibly only 3 weeks away (open to debate but it's not 3 months) and hook up to the buoy soon afterwards (not going to guess but BW Catcher got lucky with a weather window and did it within 24 hours of arrival). FOIL in 4-6 weeks after the buoy is hooked up (IMHO).

If the AM was stuck in Dubai with lots of work outstanding I would agree but we are only a few weeks from some RNS announcements.

Also, I'd be very surprised if the OPEC boys don't add a bit of meat to their statement of reducing output over the weekend and formalise it in the 6th December OPEC meeting.

I take your points on quant trading but we've got some serious fundamentals on the horizon and my feeling is they override this. I think PoO is by far the bigger factor anyway.

GLA.

The 200 SMA has been at roughly 44.8p for the last few days, so we have already broken well below it and at the moment are just above.

The point being that's it's been broken already and we didn't then see a huge sell of as a result, so not sure what your point is regarding this particular price point.

GLA.