Member Info for Biffadog

NigWit,

Nothing sinister about Kerogen's strategy or involvement in HUR. This is just the business they are in. I've attached a link so you can bone up on them.

http://www.kerogencap.com

Kerogen are invested for the long term and unlike Richard Bernstein they have in depth knowledge of the O&G sector.

Incidentally, unlike CA who sell into every rise in the SP, Kerogen have not sold a single HUR share to date and more importantly, their shareholding pretty much prevents hostile TOs.

I've spoken to RT about Kerogen and he seems very, very happy to have them on board.

I also took the opportunity to speak to Roy Kelly at the last AGM and I think it's beneficial to have them on board too.

Obviously, you don't see the benefits to the humble PI but I can't for the life of me think why.

Perhaps you could enlighten me ?

GLA.

I'm much more interested in Kerogen. They hold the trump cards here but hardly ever get a mention. Kerogen are the friend of the LTH and will enable full value to be realised for the those that stay the distance. Bernstein is now thankfully irrelevant and lest me forget he caused a lot of PR damage to HUR along the way. All IMHO.

GLA.

Personally, I don't give a fuck what CA think about HUR, it's strategic plans or it's BODs.

CA's holding in HUR is now pretty much inconsequential, as is Richard Bernstein's influence over proceedings.

GLA.

Correction "Nothing to do with the Spirit deal". Apologies.

IJWT,

My personal view is that work on the AM in Dubai was delayed but the delay had nothing to do with the AM deal.

I thought it was very unusual that there was no big thank you to DDD in the RNS when the AM set sail, so that leads me to believe works were delayed and DDD were at fault. I seem to remember a post talking about this in more detail at the time.

There are two reasons I don't buy the Spirit deal being the cause of the delayed departure. Firstly, why spend money on enhancements to the AM before you they know the GWA is a sure fire runner.
Secondly, I contacted HUR myself and was categorically told that any works required as part of the Spirit deal could and would be conducted "in the field."

I'm not sure why you are getting hung up by the delay as it was hardly significant in the greater scheme of things and it's history. What's important is we should be seeing FOIL in about 2 months time and will be drilling again in 4 months.

I looked back at your last post and couldn't find any direct question regarding the SP (or to anybody else for that matter) but here's a few thoughts as you seem keen to hear them.

At 60p odd pre FOIL, I agreed with wellwell at the time that it was a bit toppy. Not surprised at all to see it back at 40p given the circumstances. In fact, I think it may go lower still.

The drop in the SP is all about derisking and has been speeded up somewhat by the crash in the price of oil. I think most were caught out by the sheer pace of the drop and would have been expecting more time pre FOIL to offload a few shares and cover the risk. Still plenty of derisking going on IMHO. Don't forget a lot of the institutions only paid 32p and not forgetting all the investors who build up a hefty shareholding in the silly season (24p to 30p). That's outside of the happy campers at 10p odd.

On a long term return basis, I'm not with you on the big numbers I know you have quoted on here in the past.

£2 to £3 tops but that's plenty of profit if your holding is big enough.

If it the SP drops back further, it's no big deal as my eye is on the bigger prize and I think by the end of 2019 we will all be laughing. If it goes back into the mid/late 30's I'll buy some more anyway, as at that price it's a real bargain. I understand that you are a potential buyer at the moment too.

GLA.

DiveCentre,

I chose today for FOIL because all those months ago I felt it was a possibility. HUR always like to under promise and over deliver, so I optimistically went with a late 2018 date.

My point being to IJWT and Boyzee is a that HUR or RT have never FORMALLY ADVISED anything other than H1 2019. Whether I personally felt it was possible at an earlier date is neither here nor there.

Anybody who thinks FOIL is late is deluded. Whilst we may have wished for an earlier date, it is not late by definition.

GLA.

Boyzee,

A lot of us thought Q4 2108 FOIL was a distinct possibility. I was one of those.

However, HUR or RT have never formally quoted anything other than H1 2019, or more recently "early 2019".

You say yourself that RT wouldn't commit to an earlier date and rightly so.

Please feel free to post up any interview or RNS where RT says FOIL in 2018 once the Lancaster EPS project had been formally sanctioned.

So, on that basis it is simply wrong for IJWT to say the project is "seriously late". That's my point.

I'm as disappointed as anybody that it hasn't transpired but I am very happy with the way things are progressing.

FWIW Nothing wrong with trading HUR but I'm not a trader as such, although I do vary my holding from time to time.

GLA.

"while overseeing a project that is by any objective measure now quite seriously late - regardless of the H1 guidance to market." (IJWT).

What are you talking about IJWT ?

Its' reasonable to expect FOIL in late January/early February 2019 against a much publicised target date of H1 2019, so how on earth is the Lancaster EPS project "seriously late" ?

HUR have never quoted anything other than H1 2019. RT did mention early 2019 was looking good at the AGM but that's still pithing the same guidance.

All seems to be ticking along nicely as far as I can see. The SP will sort itself out in due course.

I think some people on here need a bit of patience.

GLA.

Boyzee,

Would you not expect more than a "little raise" if OPEC decide to turn the taps down a bit at their Vienna meeting on the 6th/7th December ?

You don't seem to place much emphasis on this rather significant event. Just a thought.

GLA.

Hi Genghis,

Still keen on that 3 week plus stopover at Rotterdam ?

"The repairs took less time than expected and, at noon yesterday the Aoka Mizu was off the north-west corner of Spain travelling at around eight knots and about to cross the Bay of Biscay en route to Rotterdam where it will pause for week or so."

Latest quote from RT states a "week or so"

Suggests somewhere between 1 to 2 weeks to me. If I had used the term myself, it would be to imply not much more than a week, but that is of course subjective.

We'll know soon enough.

GLA.

Good article. Made me smile when Alistair Stobie popping up right at the very end.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northsea-bp/big-oil-digs-north-seas-final-frontier-idUSKCN1NS0CR

GLA.

ETA Rotterdam 16:00 hours.

You can check for swell on the website I attached the link for. Had a quick look and swell is generally less than wave heights anyway.

It will be obvious when it's about to happen anyway as the AM's position will give the game away.

The main risk, as I understand it from our resident TA expert, is getting the crew out of the bars and knocking shops in Rotterdam if we get too close to Christmas.

GLA.

I can’t see FOIL this year but early/mid January looks odds on.

I appreciate there are all sorts of weather and sea factors to take into account but when looking at the forecast for possible opportunities for hooking up the buoy, under 2m waves are as good for guidance as anything and what HUR have referenced.

GLA.

I appreciate that this is only if everything goes according to plan (1 week in Rotterdam and 3/4 days to sail to WOS) , but the AM could be on-site ready to hook up the buoy by the first week in December.

Before I get shot down in flames for this, I am only saying that this is possible and not that it will transpire.

Having said that, second week in December anybody ?

With regard to the unknown weather factor, as an example of what's possible, the forecast wave heights for next Tuesday and Wednesday are well under 2m.

http://www.windy.com/60.180/-3.870?59.554,-3.867,7,m:fltaf2I

Hi wellwell,

Agree with your post 100% but remember there are other ways SA can pay Trump back for overlooking that journalist chap coming to a sticky end.

The war in Yemen and the blockade of Qatar, for example.

I'm hoping he's been placated with the $20 drop and can see that SA need to earn a crust and all that.

http://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/saudi-arabia-could-pay-back-trumps-support-after-khashoggi-murder.html

GLA.

SXX,

Great video clip. RT should really have added "and put that in your pipe and smoke it" at the end.

Totally and utterly demolishes the Heriot Watt and Kelly Gilblom articles.

GLA.

"Lancaster has a uniquely highly connected fracture network which results in very high flow rates and the associated high Productivity Indices (PIs). The quality of the fracture network at Lancaster, and we believe the West of Shetland Rona Ridge basement play, is attributed to the age of the reservoir (2.4 billion years) and the associated geological history of the reservoir’s structural evolution." RT from the attached article from Offshore magazine.

The key words here are "highly connected fractured network"

This subject has been done to death on here but why not do it one more time for old times's sake.

http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-78/issue-8/offshore-europe/lancaster-eps-to-address-basement-flow-uncertainties-west-of-shetland.html

GLA.

Hi Boyzee,

It's been noted by more than a few people on here that you seem quite keen to post TA based stuff when the it's negative but very rarely do so when it's positive. Unlike some, I do not regard you as our "resident TA expert" just because you present yourself as such.

With regard to the Bloomberg article, I've read everything I can get my hands on regarding FB and my personal opinion is that the odds are very, very good and we will get the result most on here are hoping for.

It is not however a binary play, so please don't put words in my mouth.

GLA.

Hi Boyzee,

Not so. It's an entirely different point that you are discussing.

You either believe in RT and FB WOS or you don't.

I do so I'm invested.

If you have doubts then now is the time to sell. Hit that sell button if you are worried it won't be all it's cracked up to be.

GLA.