Member Info for Biffadog

CA fund very overexposed to HUR at 20% of NAV. What if HUR EPS fails to produce ? Unproven play in UK waters. Maybe CA holders of a nervous disposition should think about derisking until the EPS is proven, or if they are confident it will work, then why not invest directly in HUR for maximum profit ? Just a thought.

" I agree that DrT has not always been honest. For instance, he assured the 2018 AGM that there would be no deals until the assets were proved." says NigWit.

That is a down right lie. He did not say that.

IJWT,

Whilst I have emails from HUR IR (which I realise you refute) saying that the delay in leaving Dubai was nothing to do with the Spirit deal and that any modifications required for a GWA tie in will be done whilst the AM is on location at Lancaster, you on the other hand, have provided no evidence to back up your claims.

You rightly say that any decent board would get the AM producing as soon as possible and I think that's exactly what they have tried to do.

As it happened there were unexpected delays in the AM leaving Dubai (we all agree on that) but that could very easily be down to issues completing the original Lancaster EPS works. This was covered by a poster at the time but I can't remember who provided the info.

For the record, the Lancaster EPS project is NOT late. HUR have always officially quoted H1 2019 and by the look of it FOIL could be in January or February 2019 and that's right at the START of the guidance.

I also think you often detract from what has been a relatively smooth and trouble free programme. RT's only mistake was to suggest that the AM could make Lancaster by September and obviously there was an issue that prevented that from happening.

Give the guy a break, it's only 3 months after the end of September now. That's nothing in programme of this scale.

If you think this is bad then I suggest you study PMO's Solan project this evening and you'll feel a while lot better about how HUR run things I'm sure.

GLA.

That's old news. The ETD was changed yesterday at 2pm. Hopefully this one sticks.

GLA

wellwell,

Just to clarify, I meant a problem that has surfaced since the AM left Dubai. I fully agree with you that she would not have left DDD with a known problem.

GLA.

That's a very good point themarl. If HUR are upgrading the AM before any further drilling then they must think the GWA is a stone cold cert.

However, I don't buy it. Why delay FOIL and spend money on AM upgrades (debottlenecking etc) that might never be needed. I've said this countless times on here that HUR IR have said that any upgrades (if required) will be done in the field.

It's 30k to 40k bopd (not 17k).

The AM is either waiting for a weather window or if she doesn't go for the slot next week then it's down to a problem that's sailed with her from Dubai. I certainly hope it's the former but we will know either way by Sunday morning.

GLA.

The forecast has changed a bit (see attached link) but I agree with you, if HUR miss this weather window then there must be an issue that needs fixing with the AM.

I'm hoping they are fine tuning the ETD with the weather sweet spot and a Sunday morning departure would work. Fingers crossed.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-0.php

Weather has changed slightly. Wednesday to Friday now the best three days weather wise.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-opec/opec-to-release-country-quotas-for-oil-output-cut-document-idUKKCN1OJ0ZR

GLA.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-opec/opec-to-release-country-quotas-for-oil-output-cut-document-idUKKCN1OJ0ZR

My sixpence worth.

Once the buoy is hooked up we can begin the countdown to FOIL. It could conceivable be in 3/4 weeks time and on that basis, it's reasonable to assume the JIT (Just In Time) merchants might want to take up a few HUR shares, particularly if we get an uptick in oil after Christmas. At under 40p, it's a great price to buy in at.

OPEC are getting a formal statement on quotas out by the end of the week and KSA are already cutting more than they promised. So with oil pretty much bottomed out it's quite possible that the trend will reverse. It's all just a game anyway and there's not much money left to be made on the downside now.

Personally, I'd hope hooking up the buoy will nudge us back into the 40p-45p range ready for FOIL.

Only my opinion and as likely to be right as any others expressed on here.

GLA.

Should read "wait" not "hit" in para 3.

Also, it's not 6 days to get to WOS. It is between 3-4 days.

Hi slipanchor,

I see where you are coming from however the weather has been very rough of late and only just started to calm down.

Don't forget the AM has to cross the North Sea with an open moon pool before arriving WOS.

So it makes perfect sense to hit until that crossing is in fair weather and timing the arrival at Lancaster for the sweet spot next week. Why leave a port in a storm ?

The litmus test is that the AM must leave by Friday or Saturday. Otherwise I am inclined to agree that there is an issue with the AM that needs resolving.

For the record, I am not suggesting there is an issue and my money is on tomorrow at 06:00 hours local time.

GLA.

Hi Sipp,

Leaving tomorrow at 06:00am (05:00 GMT) would have ETA at Lancaster sometime on Monday.

Perfect for a Christmas Day hook up.

Weather good to go from Monday through to Friday but Tuesday to Thursday is the absolute sweet spot with only 1m waves and wind less than 10 knots. A veritable mill pond for WOS in December.

It was good to see the SP holding up so well, considering oil was down 4% odd earlier this morning. I suppose there are only so many shopping days left before Christmas for HUR shares before the action starts in earnest.

GLA.

Here's the presentation again. Well worth a read. Don't know how I missed it first time around. Thanks Geo101.

http://sparkexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Spark-Exploration-Bader-Prospect-Extending-the-Basement-Play-on-the-Rona-Ridge-16_9-Format.pdf

We've got a really nice weather window starting from this Friday through to Thursday next week.

Wave heights under 2m from Friday and by Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday next week they are nearer the 1m mark.

Just need the AM to set sail. We will know soon enough I guess.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-0.php

GLA.

I think we'll get a Tweet to let people know the AM has left Rotterdam giving an ETA for Lancaster field followed up by an RNS when the buoy is hooked up.

GLA.

Waterboot 5 bunker ship along side the AM now. Fuelling up.

Weather window looking good for the weekend.

GLA.

"Together with running my daily car on LPG and eating no beef or lamb it helps me feel better about my investment here." says NigWit.

I kept out of it over the weekend but just read your last post. Hilarious.

GLA.

NigWit says there is no interest in HUR from institutional investors. Below are the current Top 20 institutional investors in HUR taken from The Morning Star website. Quite a nice selection I think most would agree. There are many more.

Once HUR have achieved FTSE250 status it will open up a whole new avenue of institutional investment. As we all know a lot of these guys can't invest in AIM stocks.

Why do you peddle this lie NigWit ?

Capital Research and Management Company
Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc
Artemis Investment Management LLP
Royal London Asset Management Ltd
Miton Asset Management Limited
City Financial Investment Company Ltd
Marlborough International Management Limited
Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA
BlackRock Fund Advisors
Investec Asset Management Ltd
Invesco Asset Management Ltd
Odey Asset Management LLP
T. Rowe Price International Limited
BlackRock Fund Managers Limited
FIL Fund Management Limited
AXA Investment Managers Paris
Miton Trust Managers Limited
AXA Investment Managers UK Ltd
Rathbone Unit Trust Management Limited
Universal-Investment GmbH

GLA.

I'll leave it to those that have lost the desire to live to discuss the decline (it's still increasing year in year out guys and has so far shown no sign of declining) in fossil fuel consumption all weekend and lack of investor interest, as I'm sure you will no doubt do.

However as far as HUR is concerned, it will not stop anybody invested here making many multiples of the current share price, given HUR's plans for rapid appraisal and sale of assets or company.

There will still be plenty of demand for nice 38 API crude within the lifetime of HUR.

The only difference it could conceivably make, is that HUR will receive a smaller valuation than they may have got a few years ago, before every man and his dog pulled out of investing in oil companies. I think that's what NigWig would have us believe, although I'm sure there is still a demand out there somewhere for highly profitable O&G companies with 3B odd barrels of oil.

The usual caveat applies. That is that HUR's assets prove to be as plentiful as expected.

Maybe you could chuck electric cars and BREXIT into the mix too NigWit.

Enjoy your weekend on here. See you all on Monday, unless the AM sails before then.

GLA.