Member Info for Biffadog

NigWit,

I was at that AGM. For the purpose of proof, RB was in the second row in the aisle seat on the right as you walked in. I instantly recognised his smug face from my seat in the front row. I believe you have previously claimed to have sat directly behind him. Made licking his **** easier, no doubt.

So to the facts. RB asked RT if he would accept £500M for Lincoln. A hypothetical question. No more, no less. Not a deal. Nobody had £500M on the table and nor would they have. Lincoln had not even been drilled at that stage, so a FO would have been the only option.

RT answered it hypothetically and basically said that in the future he felt that Lincoln would be worth a lot more than £500M. This will probably be proven correct.

So, RB put forward a rather daft hypothetical question. That's it. No offers of £500M were available. If they were then I'm sure HUR might have given it some serious thought as I don't think it's hard not to draw the conclusion that they got seriously close to being insolvent not that long afterwards (IMHO).

For the last time please stop misrepresenting things on here. You're getting almost Trump like.

I think it's only fair to warn you that I have recently opened a Biffadog Twitter account and look forward to using it when the opportunity arises.

GLA.

IJWT,

Last time HUR was in the mid 50's was 3 months ago back in early October but I agree that weeks can easily fade into months and then years on a BB.

You are obviously not at all confident in HUR, as with FOIL on the horizon and Brent on an upward trend, it's an odd time to be out.

Good luck to you in your other investments. We can compare notes in a few months time.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

In the absence of a major partner, HUR have two options. Either sit there and do nothing or plough their own furrow.

They have evidently chosen the second option.

I'm sure you would not be happy if they just waited in the face of what looked to be a buyer's strike. Yes Spirt got a very good deal but at least it got things moving. Lancaster EPS in the face of HUR's $300M CB debt and hugely volatile oil prices wasn't going to get an awful lot of drilling done, unless of course you are willing to bet the farm on it.

However this does not mean that the other options that you crave are off the table but that they are just not available to the HUR BOD at the moment.

Agree with you 100% on the Halifax drill. Looks like somebody made an error of judgement on that front. It's somewhat surprising as HUR have stated that Lancaster and Halifax are so similar.

As for the SP, it's been rising nicely recently and I don't personally think it's at an unreasonable level, given where HUR are in the proceedings (i.e the EPS is still unproven and FOIL has not yet been achieved). MCap is nearly £1B FFS.

As always, only my opinion and each to their own. However, if you believe the BOD are not making the right decisions on a regular basis, then maybe HUR is not the one for you.

GLA.

I guess anybody that is unhappy with HUR's projected path or potential options or just unsure of the future of the company, can sell their shares or cash in their long position once the EPS is proven and still be quids in.

No need to stay on board for the long haul if you don't want to.

I've no idea when I'll jump ship but will stop posting when I do.

GLA.

Reverting to GLA for a moment.

What's not to say a partner(s) appears once the Lancaster EPS has proven up the goods. GLA can then be concurrently run with GWA. I'd be surprised if this doesn't happen.

I can't see a huge dilution going forward. It doesn't suit anybody. PIs, IIs or the BOD.

Previously it was the only realistic option but going forward we will have significant revenue from between 20k bopd to 35k bopd (30k Lancaster EPS and 5k from splitting GWA feed 50% with Spirit).

GLA will either be developed organically at a rate commensurate with funds (unlikely in my opinion) or will be part of a FFD FO deal.

Whatever your opinions are, it was great to see such a well written article from Jeremy Cresswell in Energy Voice today.

It nicely laid out the road map fro HUR, and unusually for these articles, was not bereft of facts or peppered with inaccuracies.

GLA.

You do realise that those short positions are more likely than not, a hedge against the price of oil rising and are part of a wider delta neutral play running alongside some long oil positions ?

In which case, they are not a straight bet against PMO but a hedge against the price of oil and as such, should not be of any concern to you chaps.

That would explain why they are not closing out as PMO's SP heads North at a rapid pace.

Just a thought for the day really.

GLA.

Hook up the buoy to FOIL in 20-22 days.

GLA.

What a superb article. The road map for HUR. Essential reading, as they say. Exciting times.

GLA.

P.S. Just noticed you changed the time period you were using as well !!! Neither works so I'd give up if I were you.

No window there mate. It's all 3m waves plus waves for that time period.

I wish that were not the case but I just can't see the AM moving for the foreseeable future.

GLA.

wellwell,

It helps if you pinpoint the right spot.

You've chosen a spot on the coast where the weather is milder and not right out to sea where Lancaster is situated and the waves for that period are 3m odd.

See attached link for the correct location.

http://www.windy.com/60.180/-3.870/waves?59.654,-3.867,7,m:fltaf2I

I can't see any calm weather in the next 14 days myself, so don't expect the AM to be going anywhere for quite a while.

GLA.

No obvious weather windows over the next 14 days. In fact, it's looking pretty rough for the foreseeable.

Suggest everybody takes time out, much like the AM is now doing in Cromarty Firth.

Wake me up when the ship moves.....

GLA.

If there was an incident (damage to the buoy or AM) last Thursday or Friday which would result in a significant delay to hooking up the buoy, then HUR are obliged to advise the market via an RNS.

No RNS has been forthcoming.

So, I think it’s safe to assume, that bar a more minor technical issue, there is nothing to worry about.

The bottom line is that nobody actually knows if hook up was even attempted on Thursday.

If it was, and the process was not completed, then this could have been for a variety of reasons.

It could have been that things took longer than expected and the weather window ran out or that there was a minor technical hitch and the hook up was aborted. I very much doubt we will ever know.

Moving forward, it looks like the AM is waiting out the bad weather in a safe haven and it’s now just a matter of patience and waiting for that break.

Maybe in future, those with unfounded conspiracy theories, could keep from relentlessly plugging them on this board.

All IMHO.

GLA.

adoubleuk.

Just a quick reminder about how much you actually know about FPSOs.

It was only the other week that you made a phone call (allegedly) to Rotterdam Port and reported back that the AM could only sail out of the port in dayligh.

Literarily, an hour or so later, the AM left Rotterdam in a blaze of light.

Bearing this in mind, can I respectfully request you pipe down a bit until Monday morning when an RNS (or not) from HUR will clarify if there is indeed a problem.

Until then you simply do not have the facts to hand to make the statements you have been plastering all over this BB all weekend.

GLA.

"I have just telephoned the Rotterdam Port Harbour Authority, just to check things.

A polite young (I think) man on the phone, who spoke perfect English. I had to wait about a minute while he checked vessel name and curren informationt update.

It would appear that on the Captain's request, (no doubt in consultation with his company Bluewater, who own the boat), sailing out of port must be in daylight, and hopefully with good visibility.

I find this completely understandable, given the money involved, and the fact that the Aoka Mizu,is not a Riva speedboat.

So about 10 tomorrow. Maybe."

"There has been a big Operational balls-up over the last 72 hours" says adoubleuk.

For the very last time, please put a sock in it.

You simply cannot make statements of this significance when you have absolutely no proof or evidence to back it up.

You know as much as I do about things, so don't pretend otherwise and please stop making outrageous statements like that.

You are making yourself look pretty stupid at the moment.

If this proves to be then case (note that I'm I'm not discounting it, but only because I do not know the facts) HUR will be forced to issue an RNS on Monday morning.

Till then it's safe to say that nobody on here (including you) knows whether it is simply the weather or a minor/major technical problem.

GLA.

Adoubleuk,

Got to concur 100% with kaytom.

You do not know that as fact, so saying stuff like “balls” is patently ridiculous and somewhat ignorant.

It’s more likely weather related but at this stage nobody on here knows.

I normally ignore you ramblings on here but today you are making a right Pratt of yourself. Suggest you review your posts and put a sock in it until Monday.

If there is a significant problem then an RNS will be issued. I’d be surprised if this proves to be the case and if so, you will end up with egg on your face.

GLA.

I wasn't going to post again but having seen the deluge on here this morning, I thought it worth pointing out that on Thursday the weather was not ideal and that there was no support ship equipped with a ROV in place to make good the hook up.

It would make sense to have a practice holding the AM in place in weather conditions that were only slightly worse than required for the actual hook up and that would certainly explain the AM staying in place over Lancaster for a prolonged period.

If there is an issue HUR would have to have issued an RNS. They would have no choice in the matter. We didn't get one on Friday and I very much doubt we will get one on Monday.

adoubleuk, you are just spreading unsubstantiated panic and seem to rather be enjoying it. Pipe down man.

GLA.

If there is an issue that means that the buoy cannot be connected, for whatever reason (excluding the weather) and this means a significant delay until FOIL, then HUR must issue an RNS with immediate effect.

So, if for any reason this is the case, you will see an RNS on Monday morning at the latest.

In the meantime, please feel free to wind each other up and fret away your weekend, if that's your bag.

Personally, I don't think there is anything to worry about and that we are still waiting on the weather.

Maybe they were just conducting some preliminary work on Thursday or were just testing out holding a position for the actual hook up, as I don't think the weather on Thursday was ideal.

We can all surmise to our hearts content but I'm out of here until first thing Monday morning.

GLA.

I can't believe that anybody is vain and narcissistic enough to post their IQ (alleged IQ) on a BB.

Speaks volumes.....

GLA.

Nice 24 hour weather slot starting Wednesday evening according to today's forecast.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-5.php

Situation is fluid to say the least. Just requires a bit of patience.

It's not all bad news anyway as the steady rise in Brent is not doing the SP any harm and if that continues, then we may well get an SP boost on hooking up the buoy from a higher starting point as a result.

Again, a subjective view, but worth highlighting.

GLA.