Member Info for Biffadog

Waiting it out whilst still just about in the shelter of calmer waters overnight by the look of it.

It's a lot rougher just North of where she's stopped, so no point getting there too early I guess.

Only about 10 hours sail away anyway. ETA still 21:00 Thursday evening. WW still very much there for starting operations in the early hours (03:00) of Friday morning.

GLA.

adoubleuk,

I'm pleased to hear that you've changed your tune on that 1st trip to Lancaster.

The bottom line is that nobody knows what actually happened. Trial run, aborted run, technical failure, Sunday afternoon drive etc

Hopefully, we can avoid the tirade of misinformation we got from you last time, should there not be an obvious hook up over the next few days.

GLA.

The AM is definitely back on the move and heading at a steady 9 kn towards Lancaster.

All on to start the hook up procedure in the early hours of Friday morning. Should all be done by Friday afternoon if all goes well. IMHO.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-2.php

GLA.

Shhh (joined 15th Jan) = carnegie.

Same style, rubbish grammar and typos and tries to make friends. Next will come the abuse.

You have been warned.

Weather window still there from early Friday morning but is now a bit shorter by the look of it. Don't expect the AM to leave just yet as she doesn't need to arrive until late Thursday evening.

GLA.

Agree DC. It's still far too rough on Thursday. Friday is the day IMHO.

The AM is definitely off to Lancaster. Currently steaming at 9 knots ETA 17.1.19 at 21:00.

Looks like all systems go for the WW starting 06:00 Friday morning. Perfect conditions for at least 24 hours.

GLA.

Definitely looks like a solid 48 hour WW from 06:00 Friday through to 06:00 Sunday.

I guess we'll know soon enough because the AM will need to set sail by Wednesday evening at the latest.

http://marine.meteoconsult.co.uk/marine-weather-forecast/marine-coastline/british-isles/weather-forecast-coastal%20areas-west-shetland-14938-3.php

GLA.

Thanks missdosh. Nice one. Drilling starts in 2 weeks then. Excellent.

GLA.

The weather, PoO, RB (again)....

Bring on the drilling !!

IJWT, You mentioned the Lincoln drill to start on the 1st February.

What's your source, as I thought it was the end of February ? Happy for an earlier start, of course.

We pretty much know that Lincoln is a winner from the results of well 205/26b-12, so I personally think the DST (if successfully carried out) will have a decent impact on the SP even if they are not drilling down to find the exact height of the oil column/defining the OWC.

Anything to get away from the weather and RB really.

GLA.

Substitute "risking going bust" to "sailing very close to the wind".

Hi IJWT,

Thanks for backing up that $50M figure. I thought it was towards the higher end but was deliberately a bit cautious. A nice cash cushion.

I can't agree with you regarding funding 2 to 3 drills in 2019 from EPS at $35 oil but we have already agreed to disagree on that one and nothing has changed. The Spirit deal is about a lot more than funding a few drills, otherwise I would agree you have a point. However at $35 oil and 2/3 drills you would be risking going bust !!

GLA.

Until the AM is producing, HUR are not paying any fees to BW.

However, all the time that the AM is not hooked up and producing oil, HUR are losing revenue and so are BW for that matter. So the sooner the AM is hook-up the better.

The 7.5% coupon payments for the $220M CBs issued in July 2017 are payable quarterly in arrears and the first 8 payments (2 years) are covered by money held in an escrow account and are thus totally guaranteed for that period.

The last of the escrow payments will be made October 2019 and the first payment required from HUR directly will be in January 2020. Each quarterly coupon only amounts to about $4.1M anyway.

The other point worth highlighting is that HUR still have a fair bit of cash to hand. We are probably talking somewhere in the region of $30M to $50M. Perhaps somebody else could give a more accurate figure here.

So with FOIL in the next 2 months, anybody who is suggesting that HR have a cash flow problem is quite frankly barking.

GLA.

Once the AM is fully connected to the buoy it will not have to disconnect except in the most extreme circumstances.

I'm talking about either an emergency or extreme weather, and by that I mean much, much worse than has currently been experienced WOS.

To reinforce this point, there are two FPSOs out there now and they did not disconnect during the recent weather nor have they disconnected in recent history to my knowledge.

They are BP's Glen Lyon (larger than the AM) and the Petrofarl Foinaven (smaller than the AM).

These FPSOs are designed for these conditions once they are commissioned. It's only the hook up procedure that is an issue weather wise.

GLA.

Hi escargot,

It's only 24 hours maximum to sail to Lancaster and that's plenty of time to leave and arrive before any decent WW starts.

Why would you chose to waste fuel and energy in choppy waters when you can wait it out in the comfort of the current mooring. More relaxing for the crew, stable waters to carry out any routine work and you are not wasting fuel.

No point anybody saying "oh, there looks to be a decent 12/24 hour window in two days time" and expecting the AM to leave. You will be disappointed. The AM is not going to move until an obvious 48 hour plus WW of sufficient quality appears.

Patience is all that is required here and I'm sure a suitable WW will arrive soon enough.

GLA.

P.S: The only WW that looked pretty perfect and was for a decent time period (4 days odd I seem to remember) was over the Christmas period but unfortunately the AM wasn't bloody ready. Whilst, I've previously pointed out WWs that might suit on here, I haven't ever been presumptuous enough to suggest that opportunities have been missed.

I think it is foolish for anybody on here to think they have a better idea about what constitutes a suitable WW (defined by the right sort of weather spanning a period of time that is long enough to ensure a safe operation) than the Captain of the AM and BW.

Unless conditions and time span are guaranteed, then they simply are not going to risk going for it and that's as it should be.

GLA (including those that think they know better).

FWIW I would think hook up to FOIL in about 4-6 weeks.

Hopefully see the buoy hooked up by the end of January and FOIL by the end of February.

Roll on calm seas.....

GLA.

IJWT,

Just to clarify my post.

You guys seemed to have already assumed that HUR had been successful in their endeavours and would warrant a TO bid, so I started from that premise. In which case, "either way you make money" holds true assuming you have invested at 48p or below.

However, just to be clear that there is no guarantee that anybody is going to make money at this stage in the proceedings. If the EPS does not perform as expected then you could indeed lose money.

I think we all know that anyway but happy to clarify it for you.

GLA.

The key factor here is either way you're going to make money.

The difference is, that if a TO like you guys are describing went through, you would probably make less money but you would see it far sooner and not have to worry about when to sell your holding for optimal gain.

Whilst Kerogen can easily block a TO with their 21.87% holding, don't forget that it takes 75% plus of the votes actually cast to pass a resolution at a GM to sell the company.

I'm in it for the long haul and would hate to see HUR taken out early but at the end of the day it's largely out of our hands. Of course, should a hostile TO emerge you do of course get a vote on the outcome.

Personally I think it's far too early in the day to worry about this and my own feeling is that Kerogen know exactly what they have in HUR, so why on earth would they chose to sell out on the cheap.

As I said, either way you will make money but maybe it's best to ensure that you've got enough skin in the game and then you won't be disappointed with either scenario would be my advice.

GLA.

I wouldn't expect the AM to leave it's safe haven in Cromarty Firth unless there is an obviously suitable weather window of at least 48 hours. At the moment there clearly isn't one available over the next 14 days or so.

It's a 20-24 hour journey and it makes absolutely no sense to travel all the way to Lancaster for a debatable 12 hour window. The AM is going to be on-site for 6-10 years and there is no point in taking any unnecessary chances hooking up the buoy.

On another matter. I did some digging on the quoted 20-22 day buoy hook up to FOIL and it appears that RT has been misquoted here. So, don't all shout "problem" if we don't see FOIL in 3 weeks from the buoy hooking up.

I'm sticking with my best guess of 4-6 weeks but the reality is nobody really knows.

Patience is the name of the game.

GLA.