Member Info for Biffadog

I said "according to your view on oil etc......you're not going to see your 51p target"

The clue is in the "your view" bit. Not my view.

My view is that HUR will go somewhat higher.

You are obviously a complete moron or wind up deramper but will need a comment from time to time, so you don't taint too many people's view on HUR with the garbage you spout. So no filter for you, unfortunately.

GLA.

Crude: +6.81MM, Exp. -2.5MM
Gasoline -740K
Distillates +3.57MM
Cushing +1.64MM

This board is dire.

It's as shame because the ii one was quite a reasonable place to hold a discussion. I've gone to post here several times but given up halfway through typing. It just doesn't seem worth posting, which is a shame.

GLA.

Nicely put Mario. Thanks for taking up the slack today guys....

GLA.

Let's hope so. I notice there is a tug and pilot vessel standing nearby.

GLA.

Hi extrader,

You seemed to be inviting comment on a dspp post, so at risk of getting my head blown away, I'll have a go !

I think dspp's synopsis is pretty much on the money and fits with what Rob Trice was saying at the last AGM.

The only bit I disagree with is this paragraph.

"The farm-in would be done with a mix of shares & cash. That would leave HUR to return the bulk of cash to shareholders and work up Whirlwind (plus other exploration opportunities) with the balance."

I can't see any shares changing hands in a FO deal. It simply doesn't make sense. In a TO it's a possibility but not in a FO situation. The BOD should be looking to maximise cash inflow into the company and BP/Shell/Statoil shares just doesn't meet that objective. As a shareholder, you would hope the HUR shares would outperform BP etc, so why take BP shares when you can have cash to invest in HUR.

Secondly, I just can't see any money being returned to shareholders in the form of a one-time special dividend payment. Any cash generated is best reinvested in the form of future exploration and appraisal drilling. There's heaps of drilling the can be done and that's how you maximise returns for shareholders.

Any suggestion by the BOD of returning "the bulk of the cash" is frankly very worrying. I'm sure they would agree with that too.

If HUR gets to the stage it can look at paying any dividends (a one-time special dividend or otherwise), it's way past the time it should have been sold.

GLA.

"Ok I shall get back to work and lay the topic to rest until I spot another opportunity to destroy investment sentiment in this dog of a share I’ve put a few million pounds into. Just punt money mind you. My main cash is in CRS." says wellwell.

Honestly, you could be Richard Bernstein with a post like that.

Only joking but you might want to look at your fund allocation and do a bit of post investment risk analysis, as unless I'm mistaken, CA have a huge holding (23%) in HUR already. It was over 35% at one stage.

Bit of a risk taker is our RB but nice to see his vote of confidence in HUR.

GLA.

Maybe I wouldn't feel the need to highlight your comments, if just for once, you managed to post something remotely helpful to somebody on here. It hasn't happened yet.

Keep up the good work.

GLA.

ifonly1,

It's going lower for sure. Sell now to avoid further disappointment.

Keep on nailing those colours to the mast.

GLA.

It would seem to me at least that wellwell's goal is always to subtly sow the proverbial seed of doubt at any given opportunity.

Cue the post saying "that can't be true because I am a HUR shareholder"

So you say, so you say.....

Just my opinion but it certainly looks that way to me.

FWIW the rampers are just as bad.

GLA.

Ricfle,

I agree 100% that HUR could have a value of over £5 at some stage in the future, if the company survives long enough without being sold.

I'm thinking of a FO of GLA allowing further appraisal on the other fields and further production (obviously not as an operator but retaining a healthy percentage for significant cash flow) etc etc

My point about "mindless ramping" applies to the idiots who come on here and post "£10 by the mid 2019" and suchlike and never post any useful information to back up or justify such claims. As I say, mindless ramping. We all know who they are as they are not difficult to spot and they help nobody.

I hope that clarifies that.

As an aside, wellwell said "As someone once said Hurricanes problem is that they have too much oil and I agree" in an earlier post today. Are you serious ?

GLA

I don't think a three paragraph article in TMF warrants any serious consideration. Most of the well informed posters on here will know far more about HUR than the writer of this article. I looked up Roland Head and here is a brief summary of his background supplied by TMF. Hardly an O&G expert is he ?

"Roland Head has a background in telecoms and IT engineering that's helped him to develop an investing style that's focused on value, income and quantitative factors. He also has an interest in commodity stocks. Roland has been writing for the Motley Fool since 2012 and holds the CFA UK Investment Management Certificate (IMC). A keen private investor, he also runs an internet business."

And here's his article. Light on detail and light on everything else.

"A triple bagger?
Hurricane only has 62.1m barrels of proven and probable (2P) commercial reserves at the moment. But the group has almost 2.6bn barrels of so-called 2C resources. These represent oil resources that have been discovered, but aren’t yet ready for commercial production.

The Lancaster Early Production System is intended to provide some of the information that’s needed to convert these resources into commercial reserves. Founder Dr Robert Trice expects a much larger partner to get involved in the business when this happens. For shareholders, the result could be a tidy takeover offer.

For example, an offer valuing 1bn barrels of oil at $4 per barrel would be worth about £3.1bn, or 157p per share. That’s three times today’s 50p share price."

Going back to Malcy's £1 prediction. For this to have any real meaning we need to know at what stage in HUR's development is the £1 per share valuation applicable. Is it at FOIL for example, or at another stage in HUR's future development (post a FO of the GLA for example).
Bear in mind it's pretty much impossible to predict where HUR will be 6-12 months after FOIL, it's also pretty much impossible to place a price on the company after that milestone.

On that basis, I can only assume that he is talking about immediately after FOIL. This is only my opinion, so I will email him and see if I can get a definitive answer.

Having said that, it's anybody's guess and who's to say that the more informed posters on here haven't got a much better idea anyway.

I think all the wild speculation of £5-10 per share is exactly that and pretty pointless, unless you're indulging in a bit of mindless ramping and it serves it's purpose on that level I suppose.

I think it's pretty to safe to say that there is some serious money to be made here and leave it at that.

GLA.

Hi Irene,

Aren't you the bloke who said about HUR on 1 August "it's the only explanation that explains why the majors haven't jumped in yet, nothing wrong with discussing that and being candid about it" during the discussion on coning ?

As you well know, there are plenty of reasons a deal wasn't done in 2017 and it's not "the only explanation" as you incorrectly say. Not another ShareProphet stooge are you ?

GLA.

pijoe1212,

You're beginning to sound like one of ShareProphet's many stooges.

You say "Tom's comments are fact". Not sure that's actually true is it ?

I've met Malcy on numerous occasions and he's a decent chap. Lay off the "pies comments" as it just shows you up for the toe rag you are.

GLA.

"In terms comparing hurricane with ukog and getting a serious commercial return on their endeavours who would you be betting on ?" asks ifonly1.

UKOG are by far the better investment.

I'm surprised that you don't already know that as with over 3,000 posts in just under a year you are a prolific poster. Hope that helps.

GLA.

Hi Ricfle,

I think your timeline is pretty much spot on. 2 weeks for sea trials and 6 weeks to get to Lancaster have both been mentioned by the company and 4-8 weeks for commissioning sounds imminently reasonable to me.

I think the market knows this but I think they want to see the EPS fired up before a decent rerating of the SP. My feeling is that the SP will creep up a bit more over the next few months but nothing too dramatic. Having said that, it's anybody's guess.

GLA.

I'm not implying anything. What I have concluded and was trying to highlight to the well meaning folk on here what type of poster you clearly are.
I've had a look at your posts. I haven't seen an informative post amongst them. Not even one. You're just back from a ban in July.
You clearly like to point out small SP fluctuations as though they are a major crisis (why ?) and have never contributing even a snippet of shared info.
You are obviously welcome to post what you want but please don't play to poor ill informed new boy that nobody helps as it just doesn't wash.

GLA.

"big drop to almost 49p" ifonly1 nails his colours firmly to the mast. Didn't take long. Nice one.

Moving on to FOIL, it might help to look at the PMIO's Catcher project. Whilst BW Catcher was a brand new FSPO with new crew and a much more complicated well system (3 separate fields and 12 wells in total), they bought the first field (Catcher with 4 wells to balance) online after only 2 months. As previously stated the buoy was hooked up the day after the FPSO arrived as the weather was good.

GLA.

Things can move very quickly given a decent weather window (or should I say a 24/48 hour period).

You need only look at PMO's Catcher project. BW Catcher left Singapore in September and arrived at the Catcher field on the 18th of October. The weather conditions were good and the buoy was connected the very next day and they had successfully conducted a swivel test by the 20th October.

There were 12 production wells in total from 3 separate fields so getting to FOIL was a bit more complex than just bringing one well on-line, but even so, PMO achieved FOIL by the end of the year. The 27th December to be precise.

I think once the AM sails we know it's only 6 weeks from arrival at Lancaster (inc the stop off to fit the flare tower) and then it will be more a case of weather watching, rather than ship watching.

http://www.windy.com/60.180/-3.870?59.554,-3.867,7,m:fltaf2I

GLA.

On that basis, I'll drop it for now. Please can you just let us all know when you buy in, at the time of doing it (as trades posted hours/days/weeks later don't have that ring of authenticity that makes them so much more, how shall I put it, believable), so we can all benefit from your considerable experience and maybe add a few well timed buys too.

Love the bit about moving the SP. It wasn't that difficult back then when the SP was in the 10p-13p range and volume was very small. Out of interest, what size buys were you doing back in 2015/16 and what sort of SP movements did you manage to create with your "trades of the scale I make" mega buys ?

You missed the mid 30's to mid 50's, That's quite a bit of profit to miss out on. Best not miss the next jump or you could risk looking a bit stupid for someone who claims to be on it.

GLA.