Member Info for Biffadog

Mandrill,

Aren't you the guy that thinks HUR are a similar proposition to XEL ? Really ?

Now you are floating the idea of a drop to 46p.

Please do the decent thing and try posting this tosh on a less well informed board. You are wasting your time over here.

GLA.

Hi purves,

I'm not sure if CA sell to keep the price down or sell chunks when the price rises. I suspect the latter is true.

More importantly though, you have made a significant error in your risk assessment assumptions.

They will not stop selling come FOIL.

The biggest risk comes 6-12 months after FOIL, when the FB concept (in as much as it applies to Lancaster and WOS) is proven or not. I think there will be some signifiant SP movements after FOIL and because of this I'm sure that CA will seek to further derisk in the period between FOIL and the "Big Event" as you call it.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a drop off in the SP immediately after FOIL as investors derisk some of their holding but one would hope that this would quickly pick up again with further drilling planned and a nice income stream coming in.

I realise that I will take a bit of flak for even suggesting the SP will drop back just after FOIL but I think it's quite possible and I will certainly try and do the sensible thing and sell a percentage of my holding at this stage. I don't for one moment think the FB concept at Lancaster will fail but if it does the SP will plummet and a little insurance taken in the form of banking some profits is no bad idea. Having said this, I suspect I will fail miserably to do so. I think HUR is a winner.

Anyway, back to CA. I suspect they will derisk at every opportunity until their investment is totally covered by pre banked profit. RB simply cannot afford to take the risk that you and I might be "happy" to.

GLA.

Hey ricfle,

I know we've had our differences along the way but I liked your posts. Telling it as it is. Nothing wrong with that.

GLA.

I can't see an entry point for you to make an actual investment in HUR until the EPS and FB is proven to be a 100% winner and by that stage it's too late to make any real money.

So the truth finally outs. HUR is just a trading share for you. That's fine and goes a long way to explain some of the posts you make.

GLA.

The extra wells do not increase capacity necessarily but prolong the period Catcher can stay at peak capacity and help with reservoir management.

GLA.

Hi pijoe,

Thanks for the reply. I'm still a little confused though.

I don't think there is any doubt that the Lancaster EPS will produce and carry on producing at a level that easily covers HUR's G&A for 3 years. Indeed HUR are confident enough to quote "No decline forecasted within 6 year EPS period" in their most recent presentation.

The key to HUR's ultimate success is how the FB performs over a 6-12 month basis but financial survival for the three year period is pretty much a given. When you were previously invested in HUR that 3 year financial survivability factor wasn't there, hence my confusion.

You could wait until 6-12 months after FOIL and confirmation that the data is as RT expected but by then it will be too late and the SP will have left you behind in it's wake. Similarly, you may well miss out on any early FO or TO action.

What needs to change from where we are now for you to invest here ?

A question for you, if I may.

You spend a huge amount of time posting on this BB and yet you remain uninvested here.

Maybe you are waiting to invest in HUR. That would explain it. If that's the case, why don't you feel HUR is a good investment now and what needs to change to make it a good investment for you ?

I'm sure you can spare a few minutes to enlighten me, as I think most of the people that post on the HUR board have some skin in the game, or are very obviously spoilers.

Where do you fit in ?

MAM is absolutely correct. This comes under international law.

Should RKH win the case and the Italian government choose to not pay up in cash, RKH can simply seize Italian assets to the value of the compensation. With a "no win no fee" arrangement with one of the most successful legal firms in this specialised area there is no down side and the upside is a huge cash bonus at some stage in the next year or so. If successful, it's anybody's guess at how much the award will be ($40M to $200M).

In the greater scheme of things, it is but a side show.

Meanwhile FID inches closer by the day.

GLA.

You can check for all major shareholders on the HUR website under AIM Rule 26 or just look out for TR-1 RNS announcements as they occur.

Any SH selling significant chunks into the rise will limit the upside to the SP, so CA have played a part in keeping the SP rise in check on occasion. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess as to by how much mind.

http://www.hurricaneenergy.com/investors/aim-rule-26

GLA.

To be honest, I don't know why anybody is interested in CA's holding in HUR.

They only hold 5.77% and have absolutely no influence over anything. Best forgotten.

The lack of professionalism displayed by RB on Twitter and in the financial press when he got caught out being way too overexposed to HUR last summer was shocking.

It's also worth highlighting that he used to ramp HUR shares on Twitter whilst selling into the rise.

He also has a most unfortunate smug look on his face most of the time.

Good riddance.

CA do not have any restrictions on NAV for any one stock. Indeed at one stage in 2016 they were running nearly 35% of their NAV with HUR.

CA will continue to offload HUR stock as they still need to further derisk their investment before we reach the critical point where FB performance over the long run is a known factor. Whilst as a PI, one can chose to risk the lot on a good outcome, CA as a professional investor cannot be seen, or indeed afford, to take that risk.

Some would argue that they pushed their luck with HUR pre the Kerogen investment when there were no funds for further drilling on Lancaster and with very limited cash in the bank (18 mths G&A) they were in a fairly precarious position (Hence shares were trading at 10p) and indeed last summer, when HUR could easily have been taken out for peanuts had the BOD not pulled $530M of financing out of the hat.

Anyway, RB's risk taking is one for CA investors to mull over. Personally, I'm sure he will come to of this one smelling of roses.

GLA.

Hi Diver69,

"I would love to know the minimum Dr Trice has as a figure in mind."

I'm not sure that has any relevance. If you're interested in anybody's bottom line figure, I'd point you to Kerogen.

Any TO (hostile or otherwise) needs 75% of all votes cast, so the reality off the situation is that without a "Yes" vote from Kerogen, nothing happens. The are in this for the long game, so I really don't think people on here need worry about HUR being taken out on the cheap. It's just not going to happen.

I've not aware of any issue RT has with BP. I've spoken to him at various AGMs and he's never said anything remiss. I've also not seen anything in writing or interviews that points to this being the case. I don't think that comment is very helpful.

GLA.

Crude +5.836MM, Exp. -3.622MM
Cushing -860K
Gasoline -3.17MM
Distillate -0.37MM

Crude +629K
Gasoline +425K
Distillate +1.71MM
Cushing -1.34MM

Evening Genghis,

IMHO It's a red herring because firstly it needs congressional approval and if it gets that far I'd like to see how long it would take to get to court, be fought over in court and reach any sort of enforceable conclusion.

Just can't see the US suing the Saudis somehow. Particularly as they are openly asking for OPEC manipulation of oil prices at the moment.

In my view, anything that is years away, improbable (we can argue that point) is just background noise and classifies as a red herring. Each to their own but I'll be long gone out of my oil shares by the time this is an issue and ready and willing to short the market if it ever happens.

GLA.

To yuyus,

Ditto wellwell's post of 17:47 (There's a first time for everything).

Apologies if I got you wrong but you simply cannot go around throwing that sort of misguided information about.

It's so off the mark, it bears all the hallmarks of a classic deramping post. Share dilution coming !!

Obviously you won't effect the share price but you may put off an individual investor who will then miss out on the profits which you obviously are hoping to make.

I'm sure we will all see fair value from our HUR shares when the time comes and wish you well.

GLA.

yuyus,

What a load of old tosh.

It seems your views are at total odds with that of the BOD and I would imagine the vast majority of shareholders on here. There is simply no need to do an equity raise.

Nice try at deramping because that's all it is. Why do you people do it ?

Hi IJWT,

"the delay to PBLJ has probably pushed back delivery of Aoka Mizu which Trice originally stated would be on field in Sept. " (IJWT 08:46 post)

I have to reinforce Genghis's post (09:54) as I just cannot see any connection between the two.

Whilst the PBLJ was delayed in starting the well completions, they are now completed and ready for production and have not put back the overall project schedule.

The AM just needs the SURF and mooring systems installed but that's all progressing in good time and the buoy is already there.

It's in everybody's interest for the AM to get there ASAP and start producing revenue for some more drilling.

There is no reason why the AM can't arrive in September if the sea trials start in the next two weeks. Not saying it will make September but just that it is entirely possible. My money is on September arrival with FOIL before the end of 2018 FWIW.

Any talk on here about an equity raise to fund further drilling is utter nonsense.
It will be paid for by the Lancaster EPS cash flow, which no doubt will be factored to prevent any delays to a drilling programme.

HUR made this abundantly clear at the AGM and RT also made this clear in the recent Malcy interview. I can only assume these posts are placed by individuals who are desperately trying to deramp the share. Failing that, they have a very poor understanding of HUR's financial set up and objectives.

The appointment of Morgan Stanley is a massive statement of intent and will help the company hugely in future negotiations with the likes of BP and the admission to the FTSE 250 and all that it brings in terms of big institutional investors.

GLA.

Despite the usual luke warm TU from PMO and yesterday's huge drop in the PoO, the SP is holding up unusually well.

Having said that, I personally wasn't expecting anything else about Sea Lion in the TU. PMO's financial position gets better by the day and the main thing is Catcher is performing as it should. 2.5x EBITDA by end Q1 2019 will make them investment grade again and that should bring in a few more of the bigger players.

News on Sea Lion will come out of the blue but we are inching closer and now is not the time to be sitting on the sidelines.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a break over 45p in the very near future if oil bounces back from that mega drop.

GLA.

"In the North Falklands Basin, a pathfinder bank has been appointed to assist with the development of the senior financing structure for the Sea Lion project. Premier is also continuing to put in place letters of intent with selected contractors for the provision of key services and vendor funding. Premier's focus remains on securing funding for the project ahead of a final investment decision."

From the PMO TU. As you were.

GLA.