Member Info for Biffadog

It's just the calm before the storm. HUR are just quietly getting on with it and the SP is subject to daily fluctuations as investors come and go, each on his/her own whim. There's no major news (good or bad) to shift it either way as things stand. Major price moves in Brent aside, or a complete collapse of global markets, I can't see this situation changing until the AM makes her move. The fuse is then lit and FOIL becomes very real. Look at it as the last decent opportunity to buy some HUR shares at a half decent price. Personally, I wont be doing that as my boots were filled long ago. Patience WILL be rewarded.

GLA.

Article by John Kemp (Snr Market Analyst at Reuters) on hedge fund positioning.

"LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Hedge funds left their positions largely unchanged in the run up to last week's meetings among oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Hedge funds and other money managers trimmed their combined net long position in the six most important futures and options contracts linked to petroleum for the ninth week in a row.

But the combined net long position was cut by just 14 million barrels in the week to June 19, the smallest weekly amount since the middle of April, taking the total reduction so far to 330 million barrels since April 17.

There were only very minor changes to positions in all crude and fuels contracts.

Portfolio managers cut net positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI (-9 million barrels), U.S. heating oil (-1 million) and European gasoil (-8 million) but added positions in Brent (+3 million) and U.S. gasoline (+2 million).

In most cases, position changes were driven mainly by small reductions in existing bullish long positions rather than the creation of new bearish short ones (https://tmsnrt.rs/2tt9dX9).

Even after the long liquidation over the last nine weeks, fund managers remain overwhelmingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices later in 2018.

Bullish long positions outnumber bearish short positions by a ratio of more than 7:1, down from a peak of almost 14:1 in mid-April, but still exceptionally high.

Hedge fund managers have become slightly less bullish about the outlook for oil prices rather than outright bearish.

Short positions remain at unusually low levels in all petroleum contracts and there has been no sign of significant new short selling".

GLA.

Should read.......

Before I get shot down in flames, I'm well aware HUR are quoting "by the end of Q4" but it's food for thought.

I put Q3 by mistake.

Morning All...

It may be that some technical buying moves the SP up (for down) as opposed to an actual event. It's happened before and we are drifting very close to the 50 SMA at the moment, so a break out either way is not unreasonable. If Brent holds or goes higher, I really can't see a break to the down side, with so much action to come.

Going back to SIPP's timeline of action points, I can't help but feel that the AM sailing away from Dubai is the big one.

Before the company got a bit tight lipped about dates and were a bit more specific, RT said on a number of occasions that they aimed to have the AM in the WOS by September. As it stands, everything has gone to schedule and things look to be progressing well in Dubai.

So hypothetically, with a 6 week sail time (inc stop off to fit the stack) the AM could leave Dubai anywhere between mid July and mid August, depending on whether you use an ETA of the end or the beginning of September.

Before I get shot down in flames, I'm well aware HUR are quoting "by the end of Q3" but it's food for thought.

GLA.

Just dropped $1.50 in the last 5 minutes (23:00 to 23:05)....very interesting.

Sorry forgot to attach the link.....

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:0.713/centery:56.770/zoom:14

Hi Geo101.

I haven't made a note of the exact dates but if you want to keep track of tanker offloads you can use the AIS website.

I've attached the link with the BW Catcher co-ordimnates and if you access it now you can clearly see the Navion Oslo next to BW Catcher.

Hope that helps.

GLA.

Hi WM,

But the bad news is that the ii discussion board is now unusable. They've changed the format and it is a disaster.

FWIW you didn't need a broker account to post on there. I've posted on the ii BB for years without one.

GLA.

Hi Manjukwai,

Glad I'm not the only one keeping an eye on Catcher production. Regular as clockwork with an offload takeing place every 8/9 days.

It's worth highlighting, that Catcher has been one of the most successful global FPSO projects in recent years. All the remaining production wells are now drilled and I am told we can expect an upgrade to 2P resources in due course.

It will be interesting to see if PMO manage to grab any of MOL Group's 20% stake in Catcher. TD is on record as saying PMO are very keen to increase their stake and I've heard that there is a possibility that they are talking about splitting it 50/50 with Cairn. It may not be feasible though, because MOL Group may only be for sale as a whole.

PMO's share of Catcher is not for sale.

If any of PMO's many and varied assets are sold, it will be Zama after it has been fully appraised. IMHO.

The direction of Brent now looks to be upwards thanks to OPEC and looking forward to a steady increase in the SP moving forward.

GLA.

GTLD,

There is NO way this is going down next week (if by that you mean by close of play next Friday and not just Monday's trading).

After finally biting at 108p, I'm pretty surprised that you ditched out at 116p and didn't at least wait for the obvious 118.5p and then hit the sell button.

FAO SK: Anybody that posts how much they have invested/traded on here, is either a fantasist or a liar trying to impress and only putting down £20k (yeah right £2000 tops) when you've been given such a huge BUY signal by OPEC and then the PoO, is quite frankly a joke in it's own right. Particularly for somebody that spends their entire life on here talking the SP up or down and themselves up.

Successful/Professional traders or investors do not reveal their stakes on here nor do they spend so much time incessantly posting.

Unfortunately, I made the mistake of reading your post today when I checked to see if the site was back up.

I can only assume that you must either be a paid poster or a small time player scratching around for a living.

Moving slightly forward, PMO are now looking really, really good for a decent run upwards from here. IMHO.

GLA.

So 108p tempted you boys in the end. Love the way you all refer to "dipping your toe in" so if you've called it right and it's onwards and upwards, you can say "I got in at 108p" if it doesn't pan out that way, you can refer back to "toe dipping" and it only being a small punt. Maybe you would all have more credibility if you posted up when you are fully committed, at the actual time you make the trade. Jokers one and all. GLA.

Crude -5.914MM, Exp. -2.5MM Gasoline +3.277MM Distillate +2.715MM Cushing -1.296MM Imports: 143K Production: 10.9MM, unch

"Iran clearly softening on their approach to OPEC production hikes. Iran oil minister will now attend, and they will consider a moderate output increase, with conditions" As always, it will come out in the wash. Personally expect a small increase in output (500k bopd) with some fancy wording to say they will cover any supply deficit as and when. Gives the Ruskies an extra 200k or so, placates Trump and keeps the market in equilibrium. Obviously only IMHO but would seem to be the sort of deal that keeps everybody reasonably happy. GLA.

Hi Cebo456. You're right. Much more interesting stuff going on. Thanks for the apology but maybe from my side I should have used words like "could" or "might". Apologies for being a bit pedantic. BD.

As an example, PMO provide a monthly RNS update on any CBs or Warrants that have been exercised. Interestedly, very, very few CBs were converted to equity once the PMO SP had risen above the exercise price of 74p. The vast majority (87.5%) took the early conversion offer made by PMO in January (RNS attached). I wouldn't get hung up over the lack of covering shorts either. HUR are a very different proposition to SXX and PMO and many CBHs are probably happy to just run with the CBs on their own. At the moment, HUR's CBs are a bit of a side show and I don't think warrant that much attention (IMHO). However, there will be the dilution factor of 400M new shares at some stage and that is an important issue but that's a long way off (IMHO). http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/premiere_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1168&newsid=967495 GLA.

PS: I didn't say "it will drop off after oil" as you've quoted me. I said "No doubt there will be a drop off immediately after FOIL" Very different statements. "IT WILL" is a statement of fact and I wouldn't make one of those in connection to the SP. GLA.

Hi Cebo456, I certainly hope that the SP doesn't drop off a bit after FOIL but I certainly think there will be some profit taking and derisking going on and this will result in a drop off in the SP in the short term. However, I agree with you that with the prospects of inclusion in the FTSE250, drilling and the potential of a FO or TO this drop will hopefully be short lived. Who knows, maybe the SP will rise. Probably shouldn't have commented as it's finger in the air stuff anyway ! FWIW I won't be selling any shares after FOIL. GLA.

Hi IJWT, Great. Looks like all things being equal, we should see some drilling activity start by Q2 2019 (even allowing for the Repsol slippage). It's important, because we need something to support the SP after FOIL. No doubt there will be a drop off immediately after FOIL but with some drilling activity in the not too distant future that should limit it. From there on in, we will be producing oil and increasing 2C. Happy days. GLA.

Hi Genghis, This is true but it would be odd to use another rig when HUR have the drilling slots reserved already. Just to add that they are a no cost option should HUR not take them up. Suitable rig availability from Transocean is very tight, so finding another rig would be difficult anyway. GLA.

Just found the latest Transocean Rig Satus Report dated 18th April 2018, so I may have answered my own question. HUR have 2 options. March-June and June-August. Don't know if these have been pushed back by 2 months mind. http://www.deepwater.com/Documents/April%202018%20Fleet%20Status%20Report.pdf GLA.