Member Info for Biffadog

Hi Bear13,

Spot on regarding Trump's Tweets.

The market has to decide whether to believe the recent OPEC deal or a Trump Tweet containing the words "maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels".

It will be quite amusing when the market just chooses to ignore him.

Still think a bit of a tree shake will happen but in the end facts and figures will prevail not Trump bluster and half truths.

GLA.

It will be an excuse for an almighty great tree shake but i'd be surprised if it doesn't recover pretty quickly.

Possibly a nice buying opportunity for those that missed out.

"maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels" means jack**** anyway.

Shame though, it was on a nice steady tick upwards with 130p break out pencilled in for Monday.

Let the EIA data do the talking on Wednesday.

GLA.

From CBS News.....

But Saudi Arabia says that, while Salman has spoken to Mr. Trump, the country gave no mention of the 2 million barrels of extra production Mr. Trump mentioned.

A statement on the state-run Saudi Press Agency on Saturday afternoon said: "During the call, the two leaders stressed the need to make efforts to maintain the stability of oil markets and the growth of the global economy."

It added that there also was an understanding that oil-producing countries would need "to compensate for any potential shortage of supplies." It did not elaborate.

From CBS News......

But Saudi Arabia says that, while Salman has spoken to Mr. Trump, the country gave no mention of the 2 million barrels of extra production Mr. Trump mentioned.

A statement on the state-run Saudi Press Agency on Saturday afternoon said: "During the call, the two leaders stressed the need to make efforts to maintain the stability of oil markets and the growth of the global economy."

It added that there also was an understanding that oil-producing countries would need "to compensate for any potential shortage of supplies." It did not elaborate.

US oil production actually dropped last week. It's pretty much universally acknowledged that shale (particularly in The Permian) is maxed out for the foreseeable future. Lack of pipeline capacity and also service companies to support the new drilling activity.

All Trump has actually defined in his Tweet, is that he has asked SA to increase production and King Salman has agreed. That was agreed by OPEC the other week.

I'm sure it will have the desired short term effect on bringing the PoO down (Monday might be a bit dramatic on this front) but long term, nobody has agreed (maybe isn't worth Jack S) to an extra 2M barrels from SA and I'm sure they will clarify this in due course.

For the record, Saudi Arabia has around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of unused output capacity, while the UAE has around 330,000 bpd and Kuwait around 220,000 (according to the International Energy Agency).

GLA.

"I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels" Trump.

The key wording here is the "maybe" up to 2M barrels.

However, I'm sure it might calm the price on Monday but as a headline it might keep oil in check for a few weeks at the most. SA don't have 2M barrels to turn on at a moment's notice.

The worse scenario for PoO is Trump starting to empty down the US National Reserve.

GLA.

Should read "AIM listed O&G company"

I think Cebo456 is 100% correct in his 13:52 post.

GLA.

Hi Boyzee,

I asked AS specifically after the AGM (there were a group about 6 present, some of whom post on here)
"was there any offer forthcoming last year in the period leading up to the fund raising".

The answer was an emphatic "No".

What he went on to explain was, that although there was a lot of interest in HUR's assets, nobody made a move on the basis they felt it was very likely HUR would not secure any funding and were then ripe to be picked up on the cheap.

Against the odds, HUR secured the largest funding package ever for an AIM listed company and the boot was then on the other foot.

There is no point in anyone making a low ball offer now as it will simply be turned down. Hence it's now better for ALL parties to wait and see what the y have got and negotiate a fair deal at that stage. I'd frankly be amazed at any deal action before 6-12 month of data is available, it doesn't stack for either side.

In his AGM presentation, RT stated: "We don't expect that any meaningful commercial discussions will take place until we've had at least 6-12 months of steady production" and I think that is how it stands.

I hope that sets your mind at rest Boyzee.

GLA.

Hi IJWT,

Before the company got a bit tight lipped about dates and were a bit more specific, RT said on a number of occasions that they aimed to have the AM in the WOS by September. As it stands, everything has gone to schedule and things look to be progressing well in Dubai.

So hypothetically, with a 6 week sail time (inc stop off to fit the flare stack in Holland) the AM could leave Dubai anywhere between mid July and mid August, depending on whether you use an ETA of the end or the beginning of September.

My money is on a September arrival at Lancaster. RT mentioned trip to Dubai next month with NP, so I can only assume that is to have a ride during the sea trials and marvel at their new toy.

Just need some good weather and FOIL before the end of 2018 is certainly a possibility (just a possibility and not a certainty. Hopefully that will keep the humbugs on here happy).

PS: Investing in O&G companies comes with risk attached. Remember share can go up as well as down.

GLA.

I'm not a TA guy but can't help but feel a break out above 48p into the 50s is on the cards.
Good volume (5M) so far today and a really strong bounce off the 50 day SMA yesterday at about 10:25am.
Any thoughts from the TA guys on here ?
Maybe it's just range bound but it looks to be stoking up for a break out to me.

GLA.

Main points to take away....
Will RNS Wells completed, Buoy tied in, AM sails (but don't mistake sea trials for sail away), Buoy attached and lastly FOIL.
Sail away then 6 weeks to Lancaster via Holland to have the flare stack attached.
3-6 months to ramp up to 20k bopd (17k net). After 12 months HUR will have all that data anybody could possibly need.
Stressed what a simple operation the EPS was. Compared it to extended flow testing (true) and also made a point that the AM was very much a proven vessel.
Once EPS is up and running will have "funds to drill AT LEAST one well"
Options are
1) Flow test Lincoln (mentions deeper than Lancaster so potentially more oil).
2) Warwick (unfdrilled and must drill by the end of 2020).
3) Halifax: Either a new well or further work on the 2017 well
Selling the business/HUR's assets or FO options. Open to all.
RT said that "all parties want the lot" and "nobody was just interested in Lancaster" pre the fund raising.
Will not be operator on any FFD. No way. Will sell out or FO and keep 30% (just an example) and get the cash flow.
The key point I took away is that once HUR have got the cash (either as a lump sum or cash flow from a FFD) they will be off exploring FB elsewhere. The FB play from WOS going round to Ireland sounded very likely.
RT said "FB hugely under exploited globally"
It was obvious RT has some target plays lined up once the cash is there.
All very exciting and for once Malcy let him get on and do the talking. Well done Malcy.
Exciting times.

GLA.

HUR just bounced off the 50 day SMA which was at about 45.2p.

Looks like range bound between 45p and 49p unless it breaks out. No predictions as to whether it might but it would be nice and add a tad of excitement to the proceedings.

GLA.

Perhaps I should explain that I am also over from ii and despite my somewhat negative interpretation of yesterday's rise in the SP, I am a LTH of RKH and have absolutely no doubt this will pay out in spades in due course. My post was not some shoddy attempt at deramping.

However, I just can't see any other reason for such a rise. Only a FO partner, FID or at the very least some sort of confirmation of a finance deal is going to have a lasting effect on the SP.

PS: Good morning to Frogga, fecm, TGF.

So no RNS this morning that could add some substance to the recent rise in the SP. No great surprise.

The volume wasn’t that great and mostly “algo” stuff.

I think it started with a small technical bounce off the 50 SMA which began late Friday afternoon, combined with a generous helping of oil price action, traded up by those that do.

Expect it will drift gently back down again just like the last leap up to 44p (again combined with a rapid hike in the PoO).

GLA.

Off to the races.....

GLA.

Crude -9.891MM, Exp. -3.0MM
Gasoline: +1.16MM
Distillate: +0.02MM
Cushing: -2.713MM

Agree with you 100% on that one Bear13.
To be fair, I don't think anyone posting on here today has either.
Would hope that EIA numbers that show at least some similarity to the API ones might shift it along, but who knows. Nothing wrong with the oil price action so far.

GLA.

If you play the video clip when the guy does a 4 minute piece to camera, the really interesting bit is when he goes into detail as to why The Permian production has topped out and will not be able to take up any of the slack for the foreseeable future. In essence, lack of pipeline capacity and service companies. Explains why the rig count has hardly moved of late, despite the price of WTI being more than enough for profitable shale production . Looks like with 200k bopd from The Russkies (not sure how much extra they have left to give but it's not likely to be that much more), it's all down to The Saudis to control the supply and the price of oil over the next year. Nice.

GLA.

GTLD,

You also said with conviction that Brent will be $69/$70 by Friday before you bought in. I assume that now you are on board and $76.50 has been broken we can expect posts of Brent $80-85 over the next few days. That's the way it looks anyway from where I'm sitting.

Anyway, looks like Brent has stated it's intent and hopefully PMO can get on with a steady climb upwards.
With Brent at $70 plus and stable, the fundamentals are fantastic. Should really shine towards the end of 2019 when when the debt starts to show a meaningful reduction and PMO become an investment grade proposition.

GLA.

Just to remind you that you had Brent at under $70 by this Friday on Saturday.

"Biffa, it will go down on Monday and close lower on Friday than this week, Brent will fall Monday, consolidate tues/weds then fall again thurs/fri to 69/70 dollars." so said GTLD on Saturday.

You were also touting the possibility of PMO at 70p only 9 days ago.

"Next week it's likely Brent will fall to 70 dollars, will this cause mass selling?, looking at the chart it is feasible that a deep retrace could see PMO at 78-80p, I'm not saying I think this will happen, but it is one of 4 scenario's I am looking at." so said GTLD on the 17th June.

Make your own mind up on GTLD's predictions and motives. I have.

GLA.