Member Info for Bhants

Carnival is nowhere near a C11, I think. Cash flow is good and getting better. I know they postponed a new ship but that wasn’t in their control. Net debt is well below their target of 75% of assets at around 50%.

There was a big dump of shares from an Asian sovereign fund, I believe, a few days ago but I suspect we must wait for the webinar on 21st. It will be broadcast from both Carnival websites. If the results turn out no worse than market expectations, we might see an improvement.

Well, pretty soon after the start of the last webinar thingy, the share price dropped below £5.

So, Dunno, really. The analysts gave the two senior execs from Carnival a VERY easy ride. Apparently, the drop was due to the results not “meeting market expectations”. Let’s hope they do it this time! Might produce a different result.

One wonders why you are so bothered - those of us who bought in at a higher price earlier this year saw it drop to less than £5 after the last quarterly results. One has to hope that the next set will be better. Like you, nobby, one to leave in the drawer. Can’t help being curious though.

I just do not know what it is about this share but the pattern seems to be that any gains made during trading here will be dumped on the opening of trade on the NYSE. Today, the price went from 649 to 693 and then down to 658. I don’t doubt there will be little if any gain on the day.

Along with a bit of bounce back from the large sale by a sovereign wealth fund.

Yes, it is weird, especially since the FTSE’s are barely moving from high levels.

Even though/if Carnival don’t hedge their fuel, it will take a while for any oil price movement to affect their performance let alone the share price.

Not really, just thought they might need any excuse for a knees-up!

When I said buy back in at 690 I meant 670.

Maybe the action to take with CCL is sell at 720 and buy back at 690?

You don’t get a crossing the equator as well, do you?

Likely because of security/safety concerns. The Baltic states are a temptation to Russia/Belarus and they have that enclave on the coast. Others have already done it, I think.

I sort of get that, except the total “shorts” are now half what they were a couple of weeks ago, the FTSE 100 is up to more than 7,500, the £ is 20% stronger against the $ …..

Oh well.

Monday’s good news effect very short-lived. All indexes are up, as is £ v $.

Just sitting back in wonderment.

Anyone any ideas?

PS does anyone have any inkling of how the 4th Q numbers are looking? I suspect that if CC can do better than “market expectations” at least we might not see another “tank” like we did in October.

How goes the bridge? Or are you waiting for the next cruise?

We can only do one per year, next is May, 2023.

I agree that the company is managing its affairs well. Just seems a little odd that the SP was so much higher a year ago when things were much the same as they are now. The £ seems to be recovering against the $, at 1.20 today, and the FTSE 100 is up to over 7,500. The markets must think the UK is doing something right!

I am slightly perturbed by the reintroduction of COVID protocols - not in the UK where numbers are steady/falling slightly. I wonder if complacency is creeping in?

I’ve said before I’m in for the long haul on CCL.

Met someone on our last cruise who bought in at £48. Ouch.

You and I agree on that but are, perhaps, a little biased.

How goes the bridge?

I agree that the time taken to benefit Carnival, or anyone else, is rather longer than we think or would like, although eventually it will affect the bottom line. Is fuel their biggest cost? Doubt it. More likely staff and overheads. They pay their senior management pretty well, even when they get put our to pasture as a “consultant”. The last one gets $1million a year for two years!

The fuel timing etc is also why I get so annoyed with EC’s ramping on here. Not the only reason, mind.

Got to be in this share for the, possibly very, long haul, I think.

If they do not hedge, which I would be very surprised about - at least at a fleet level - why does a drop in fuel price not benefit the bottom line?

Not at all. Cruise lines hedge their fuel costs. Works against them a bit when the price goes down.

I think my problem is in trying to take a long view but watching the short-term movements.

Is there some sort of equation of reduction in share value equals the amount of cash raised, or vice versa?