Member Info for Bhants

That is a much more important message than anything to do with fuel.

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Arcadia and Arvia due out on same day. Let us know what you think of the new one. We really like Arcadia (due for dry dock refit in November 2024).

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Never have been on Carnival’s side. Slightest possible reason to downgrade and it happens. Reminds me of the song “Slip sliding away……..”.

Still, only 12 days to our cruise and I’m really starting to look forward to it.

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Stupmy, did you not mean hoping not to get the plague?

I do hope so. Being on Arcadia, though, never feels like being penned up, or in.

Have a great weekend everyone, even if you share some of Topo’s pessimism, as I do.

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Although I would forgive them if they did it again and the SP went up another 20p……

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I hope they didn’t sneeze on my ship!!

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Enjoy! I’m sure you will!

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We’re on Arcadia on 14th May and, as you say, BeeJay, are expecting a full ship. P & O and Cunard are only two of the ten Carnival brands and possibly the smallest after Seabourn. Having said that, the numbers world wide are looking good, too.

We just booked for 2025 and that was selling fast on first day of availability.

Q2 results due end of May. Should be good enough to overcome the negative sentiment.

I wonder when the “experts” will realise that cruising is barely affected by interest rates, recessions and, to some extent, oil prices?

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And yesterday Carnival bought 181,000 UK shares at an average price of £6.37 per share. This is under their “stock swap” programme. It included one trade of 40,000+ recorded just after UK closing.

Will they eventually de-list in London? They haven’t announced that as their intention.

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I agree with Bot, Mirik.

Logic does not seem to apply to Carnival Share Price, or is ruled by sentiment and all travel companies seem to be undervalued.

Q2 results will be out at the end of May and we should see the upward trajectory in those continue. There will be a webinar/simulcast at the same time and that is worth a listen, if only to hear the inane questions from the brokers/institutional investors!

Carnival certainly have a plan and projections and these govern the “market expectations” so, provided they are achieved or exceeded, we should see that work through into the share price.

As Bot says, if you’re holding CCL, patience, real patience, i.e. a year or two, will be need to see a return to anything like pervious levels. FWIW, my average purchase is £7.95. It’ll only be a loss if I actually realise it. Still doesn’t look too comforting on paper, though!

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PS they bought back another 103,000+ shares yesterday.

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Stupmy, Have you seen the size of the awards? There is no way the board is going to go for an RI any time soon. Especially since the award was made as a nominal cash amount converted to a number of shares by dividing that amount by the share price.

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Well, maybe no5 so much a tank as a large dip, but right on cue, nonetheless, after NYSE opened. Getting to be all too familiar a pattern. Like Boskowski’s triangles…….

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Cineworld’s debt as ratio to assets was in excess of 100% and potential earnings did not allow further borrowing as investors felt they were over optimistic estimates. So, you’re right, the inevitable happened.

Carnival is of a different order altogether, both in magnitude and in terms of a plan to recover to previous positions. Its future earnings are much less of an estimate as they are based on actual bookings.

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Expecting another “tank” any time now……..

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PS I met a guy on our last cruise who bought in at £48.

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Our next cruise is on 14th May and also looking forward to that.

Stupmy, I didn’t want to get into a “Yes it is, no it isn’t “ argument. Time will tell here but there are other factors, too. Carnival have been vacuuming up UK shares over the last few years - in the last two weeks that has amounted to more than 500,00.

So I would still make the same comment about the directors “share bonus” which they would not want devalued immediately post acquiring them as it will have been the value of the bonus that dictated the number of shares - at least, it always was in my day - and whilst past performance is valuable, (the triangles you mention occur in other areas, too, notably the valuation of health insurance claims), all financial products in the UK carry the health warning that “past performance is no guide to the future”.

So, folks like Topo, ken, Fordy, Bot, i and probably a large number of others, being “under water” simply have no choice but to run the risk of hanging in there. The longer term prospects do look sound and Carnival are working to a plan.

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Except, Stupmy, sir, they are the very people who would have the final say on whether an RI would happen. Self-interest rules and they are hardly likely to dilute their own recently acquired holding, which they got at no cost. Indeed the new shares would actually then cost them money.

I know which way I would vote.

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Well, if they do go the RI route, the Directors and others (14 of them!) who have just been allocated around 10,000 shares each according to the Section 4 filings will be pretty unhappy, I suspect.

Personally, I don’t see any option but to hang in there.

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Going by previous years, cruise companies generally seem less affected by recession as they are more generally used by “grey” money. Huge generalisation, I know, especially as they are targeting families much more now.

You might try going to the Carnival website and subscribing to their news by email. You can then see their SEC filings etc which paint the true picture of where they are at. Many folk focus on the debt pile/mountain but it is around 50% of assets, mostly on fixed rates and there are plenty of institutions willing to lend. The last issue of Senior Notes was well over-subscribed.

So, you pays yer money and all that. A number of posters on here are, like me, in for the long haul hoping/expecting to get to £15 - £17 in the next 12 to 18 months.

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