Member Info for Bhants

Everything’s gone south on the back of the info from the UK.

B

I know I am old - I admitted to being 75 while on Iona. Getting towards £11.50. Any bets on how much lower QRT will force it?

A good buy-in point?

B

We, too, had to weather the storm of 14-15% mortgage rates. Just an aside from our recent jaunt on Iona was that it was full of families. Maybe a week’s cruise costs similar to a week (all inclusive) on land. I think people prioritise holidays higher than the pundits think.

Bot, I will not be precipitate in any action I take. If interest rates still have at least one more rise to come (personally I think there may be more than that) then NatWest, particularly, will benefit. They do just seem to keep stepping on man traps, or is that person traps, at the moment, e.g. Alison Rose and Ulster Bank and the resurrection of the whole sordid GRG business. Surprised that Fred the Shred hasn’t been mentioned.

Anyway, the interest rate rise has had the predictable effect on the CCL share price as it is down 11p.

B

PS BRILLIANTLY DONE THE LIONESSES!!!

Thanks Bot. My take:

Interest rates in the UK will go up again to 5.5% because although the headline inflation rate has dropped to 6.8%. However, the “core” rate remains at 6.9% and private sector wage rises are now higher than this at 7.8%. Tg3 squeeze has to continue. Feel sorry for mortgage holders who are coming off their fixed rate this year and next.

Having said all that, cruise bookings remain at record levels (noted your theoretical vs reality comment earlier) and we have a small rise in price.

Still thinking what to do about NatWest………

B

Spot on, Bot. Just what I thought as I breathed a sigh of relief.

B

NatWest yield has been good owing to special dividends but I am a bit reluctant to sell at a 14% loss although ………

I will look at Lloyds, anyway. As for CCL my average is about £7.95 so I am still happy, whatever. Roll on Q3 results.

When’re you off next?

B

Absolutely not, Bot, and I don’t take it as advice but a sound, alternative perspective.

The bit of advice I will take is to step back and look and re-look. The share is now XD, so would be trading slightly lower than otherwise but that doesn’t account for the drop, by any means. Part of the problem is that HL gave it a “buy” over the weekend. I thought at the time i5 might be the kiss of death. Nit that I take any notice of HL, you understand.

Thanks again.

B

FWIW, my personal view is that shorting should be banned. It doesn’t benefit anyone, other than the shorter and their co-operating share-lenders and certainly isn’t an economically productive activity. I know there is a lot of stuff (technical term, sorry) that goes on that I simply do not understand, e.g. the disproportionate effect manipulating up to 3% of tge shares in issue can have. Self-fulfilling prophecy comes to mind.

I guess my problem is that I have invested on my own sentiment - should I spell that naivety?

B

TBH Angus, I would almost want to hope that th3 Stock Market iIs more fun than cruising! That would be very mean to those who go cruising but have no interest in the SM.

Bot, that is a not surprisingly very depressing report on the state of the global economy. How did we get to this state? We seem to be back to the situation, almost, of 2008 but without the actual precipitating crisis. We have somehow drifted into it, even sleepwalked, perhaps. Mind you, with Bailey in charge at the BoE, that does not really come as a surprise. NatWest seem to have found another scandal in their Ulster Bank subsidiary that the FCA is looking at. So my two main holdings are on the slide. Admittedly, CCL is still in positive territory. Hangin’ in there until Q3 hopefully brings some good news - not that that would help the share price any going by past experience.

B

Just for a moment coming back to QRT and the like - they have shorted around 1% of the shares. Why does this have so much effect.

BTW, I would give you the job, Bot, for sheer cheek! Is RCL still up or sinking, too?

Have a good day all.

B

So, is it down to QRT that the share price has dropped another 20p today?

Still inclined t9 believe the mischief makers have a lot to do with it because the underlying numbers for Carnival haven’t changed.

B

Thank you, Holo. Will you be on the interview panel?

It does give an alternative perspective. What will cause QRT to leave this share alone?

B

No but have seen it around - nearly got it on my Kindle but forgot.

Fortunately- spoiler alert - I don’t think it’s about a cruise line or the effects of its share price.😎

B

I won’t take the comparison to a grumpy old dog too personally, Bot! Lol.

Looks like a slow downward drift again this week.

B

Well, we have two booked for next year - a family do just after Easter (not a cruise) then round the British Isles on Arcadia in May. I am trying to persuade other half to do Arvia next September. Then we are round the Western Med on Arcadia in July 2025.

Brochure for after that net yet out. That’s probably the most exciting thing we are looking forward to!

Have a good weekend everyone.

B

I could not agree more, Bot, about theory and reality. Trouble is, the stock market, whilst looking forward, also looks over its shoulder.

Definition of an economist (analyst, actuary etc) - someone who tells you the directions while looking in the rear view mirror……..

B

Well, we’ve lost 20p so far today, what is the US going to give us?

B

The cruise we just came off was for my 75th, so I remember all those TV progs, in particular Kent Walton’s “Good afternoon grapple fans!”.

Still got gardening to catch up on. Yuk.

Have a good day all.

B

It’s getting down below 12.30…….

B

We’re on exactly the 5p drop today so far that Bot suggested.

B