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The size of increase in SP today must be II buying. Obviously want to be fully loaded ahead of DoJ settlement news.

The SP is consolidating awaiting news of DoJ settlement. Speculation about size of settlement and when will be announced is obviously impacting on SP with fairly sizable moves on SP. As previously posted, if there is a reasonable settlement then SP should head towards £1.80. Longer term the SP should appreciate towards £4 based on being market leader in a growth market free of the legal issues that have dogged the company for the last 2-3 years and bolstered by PERSERIS sales growth, benefiting from a US policy of US manufactured pharma being given preference over FE alternatives & possible predator interest.
As ever IMHO & DYOR

It is quite clear now that a settlement is imminent with DoJ. What INDV needs to pay and when will determine the short-term SP. Given the RNS earlier this week it is also clear that the amount already provided for in the accounts is sufficient to cover it. If INDV is allowed to pay it over a 3 or 4 year term then that will be beneficial to the SP. I also believe that there is a reasonable chance that a predator will be circling. INDV are a market leader and have a SP that is still possibly half its true value (assuming a reasonable settlement). Longer term (and if not taken over) the SP will head back towards the £4 level given market leading status in opioid addiction treatment and through take-up of PERSERIS which will be needed for the next major US addiction of schizophrenia emanating from wide use of cannabis and derivatives.
IMHO & DYOR

The RNS specifically states:
" As the Group has previously noted, it continues to pursue its strategy to resolve outstanding investigations and litigations as expeditiously as possible, and as the matter is ongoing it has no further comment.
The Group notes that the provision for litigation/investigative matters remains unchanged as of today's date."
Which means that a settlement is near and the provision already made covers the likely settlement figure.
Thaxter's "misdemeanor" agreement with DoJ & removal from office is obviously part of that process toward settlement.
IMHO, DYOR etc

Today's RNS looks very much like the precursor to an imminent settlement with DoJ. Following upon that there will be a re-rating for INDV.
IMHO, DYOR etc

The changes in personnel suggest 1 or both of the following:
1.disagreement over the terms of settlement with the DOJ;
2.the impending acquisition of the company by a large pharma company.
The SP following notification of Thaxter's removal has hardly been affected and if anything has strengthened. However, the company remains significantly under-valued and represents small-change to any large pharma wanting to take-out the market leader.
IMHO, DYOR etc

The continuing strength of the SP both in UK and USA & recent significant stake taken by Kairos (5.13%) would suggest that a settlement deal with DoJ is imminent. Also to be added into the mix is the obvious attraction of INDV to a predator with its SP at such a low level. Once DoJ saga is resolved (assuming a reasonable settlement) INDV is in play with initial SP target of £1.80+ moving back towards £4 over the next 12 months. IMHO, DYOR

Given the continuing recent strength of the SP, the resolution of the long-running DoJ saga must be near. In previous posts I have indicated that following a (reasonable) resolution the SP should be fairly quickly north of £1.50 and thereafter head towards its previous high of £4+.
As always IMHO and DYOR

SP rose very quickly last Friday & this Monday so easy profit-taking which causes pull-back & then buy in again. Now one of my core holdings with target price of £1.50 +
IMHO & always DYOR

Very good article and will be a game changer. Trump championing US drug makers at the expense of China/India makes the INDV case even stronger. This will have had a positive impact on the SP. But I do also think that a settlement with DoJ is very close. Once that risk has been quantified/eliminated the SP will head towards £2 short-term with plenty more upside to come after that. IMHO, DYOR etc

Big rise today of over 10% as I write. Possibly II's loading up in readiness for settlement announcement?? INDV SP continues to be massively under-priced due to DoJ case. Based on v conservative estimates a few weeks ago my own calculations suggested a SP now of about £1.80. Once DoJ case settled this should be easily achievable with a lot more upside to come. IMHO & obviously DYOR.

Interesting in-depth analysis carried out by Simply Wall St (see link below) which gives INDV a fair value of £5.23. Research was carried out a few days ago and may explain to some degree the SP increase last week. No mention is made in the Report of the DoJ case so this is purely based on the company's fundamentals, industry norms etc. As all LTH's will know the DoJ case involves large sums & is currently severely depressing the SP. That case needs to be settled to enable the SP to properly reflect the company's value.
As a matter of course DYOR etc

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/pharmaceuticals-biotech/lse-indv/indivior-shares?utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=integrated-pitch&utm_source=post&blueprint=1126851#executive-summary

Obvious disappointment that the case was not dismissed and that gets reflected in the SP. But the fact has not changed that this is a grossly under-valued company being held back by the DoJ case. Once that is settled, and it will be, the SP will be reflective of the true value of the company. IMHO I believe that following settlement the SP will be in the £1.50-£2.00 range by the summer. Current SP when I started writing this was 39.98p (and has moved to 41.20 in the space of a few minutes) so enormous upside.

I don't know about the price that it may fall to but the difficulty in physically collecting will currently be a problem and the predicament of customers given reduced income/job losses/reduced economic activity will also be a negative.
The uncertainty about Covid and how long lock-down is to be in place is a major problem for everyone. For the sub-prime market that effect is magnified. For now its all about survival.

Or could be a competitor taking advantage of potentially buying INDV on the cheap given its very depressed SP and the 2 potential block-buster products that INDV has developed namely SUBLOCADE and PERSERIS. SUBLOCADE allows 30 days treatment for opioid addiction patients whilst PERSERIS is targeted at the growing market of schizophrenic patients.

Given the size of the rise (18%) this has to be IIs loading up in anticipation of a positive resolution of the DoJ saga.

Resolution of DoJ case is imminent IMHO so not tempted to day trade even though today's increase over 10%. The SP at 52p is still only a relatively small fraction fraction of "true" worth of the company.

Day gain now above 20% but if good news is imminent the SP should double up from here in a very short time.

Big rise today (18% at time of writing) which may indicate that there is major news to be released about the DoJ case. If good news then the SP will go into orbit.

The main driver for INDV is the court case. Given this is set for May there are about 8 weeks for the start of the case in the event that no settlement has been agreed. A settlement will be agreed before then. That means that the major constraint on the SP will be removed in the next few weeks. It is obviously a matter for conjecture but my opinion is that the settlement (if any) will be a relatively low amount and well within the company's capacity to pay. This will mean a very significant rise in the SP. My own speculative target is £1.50 - £1.80 by the summer with further increase from there.
Amidst a sea of negativity and fear INDV offers an outstanding opportunity albeit not without risk given the court case.
Above is IMHO, DYOR etc.