The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Won't be attracted by D4E. The RNS is simply stating that all options are still being considered. This maintains the uncertainty given that options are available which is required when conducting negotiations. The PFC board need to play their hand very shrewdly to get the best deal.
SP still well behind the curve based on last results. Broker upgrades to come together with share buy-backs until April & a move to USA. I would also throw in takeover speculation as big pharma circles this relative minnow.
INDV continues to storm ahead despite increased competition. The SP was far too low so today's price increase is just partial catch-up. The switch to US main listing is a good move & will generate a lot more interest from US based investors. The big questions are how much longer will INDV remain independent before big PHARMA swallows it and at what price? To answer my own questions, not that long & North of £25.
IMHO and SP currently 20p, do the math.... Lot of shorts to unravel, new contracts in the offing and takeover speculation thrown in for good measure....what a difference a day (and a RNS) makes...
Long term value IMHO is £3+ on the good assumption that PFC gets through this sticky period...So LTH's take heart, there's a lot more to come...
I was not expecting that very positive development.
At today's price that will result in a further approx. 6m shares being bought. This is about 4.3% of total equity.
The buyback starts Monday 20th November.
All LTH's like myself know that PFC is seriously undervalued. When that fully registers with the wider investing community the SP will motor. New contract wins, shorts closing, institutions taking positions, oil price firming all add to the compelling investment case for PFC.
First of all, there can be many reasons for a sale, not all are down to the share.
Secondly, I would consider the investment case for PFC and base my decisions on that.
Thirdly, if you are a LTH then welcome the opportunity to load up on a cheap SP.
PFC is very cheap IMHO. When it moves upwards it will move fast. In the meantime keep loading up on the dips.
The results are very good but gave the opportunity for profit taking. I wonder whether Morgan Stanley (MS) will buy back in once the SP has settled (currently 17.51 but has been down to approx 17.20). MS have been in and out on a regular basis & the size of their holding when invested (approx 6%) drives the SP. I think they will buy-in again.
Crossley is giving a live telecast at 1pm UK time. That should be a positive for the SP.
INDV continues strong growth with 2023 guidance raised. Results highlights:
Strong H1 and Q2 2023 Financial Results; FY 2023 Guidance Raised
• Q2 2023 SUBLOCADE® Net Revenue (NR) of $155m, +58% versus Q2 2022
• OPVEE® launch projected for Q4 2023
• FY 2023 SUBLOCADE NR and overall NR guidance raised; FY 2023 adjusted operating income now expected to be higher than FY 2022
If there were to be an offer(s) for PFC then it would be when the SP was very weak and before the new contracts had started impacting on the financials.
So PFC is currently a very attractive target.
The next few weeks/months could be very interesting.
PFC has just turned a very big corner and is now winning massive contracts. I don't think Asfari would be looking to sell when PFC's fortunes are just on the up & neither would many LTH's including myself.
That is not to say that offers for the company would not be forthcoming. At current SP the company is a steal & may well attract offers whilst SP is in bargain basement territory.
This is a copy of Hargreaves Lansdown message sent at end of May detailing the Prax offer and timescales where known:
"As you will be aware, Prax Exploration & Production Plc have made an offer to buy Hurricane Energy plc for 4.15p cash, a supplementary dividend of up to 1.87p, and 1 Deferred Consideration Unit (DCU) per share. The expected effective date of the takeover has now been announced.
Shareholders approved this takeover at meetings held on 4 May 2023. The takeover still needs court approval at a hearing on 7 June 2023.
The 4.15p in cash will be comprised of a transaction dividend of 3.32p per share and a cash consideration of 0.83p per share. The supplementary dividend is dependent on whether Hurricane Energy plc has sufficient cash resources, in particular it will need to have received the proceeds from the oil lifting from the Lancaster Field.
The DCUs may deliver up to 6.48 pence per share in cash. The option to elect to receive loan notes instead of any cash you might receive from the DCUs has passed.
If approved, the offer will complete on 8 June 2023. It is expected that the cash will be paid, and shares will be credited on or around 22 June 2023. If you want to sell your shares before the takeover completes, you’ll need to do so before 4:30pm on 7 June 2023. If you’d like to sell your shares you can place a trade online.
If you hold your shares within an ISA, please note that further to our message sent on 18 May 2023, we are still waiting for HMRC to confirm whether the DCUs can be held within an ISA. We will let you know once we have received a response back.
This message is a summary of the Hurricane Energy plc announcement. It is not personal advice. You can read the full announcement on the company website."
Jefferies raises Indivior price target to 2,330 (2,115) pence - 'buy'.
Plenty of upside with strong trading reflected in recent trading update.
NASDAQ dealings begin June 12th.
FDA approval of OPVEE® (nalmefene) Nasal Spray, An Opioid Overdose Rescue Medicine for Natural and Synthetic Opioids Like Fentanyl.
Interesting article (part copied below) in Daily Telegraph covering link between cannabis use & schizophrenia.
INDV's Perseris combats schizophrenia.
"Almost a third of schizophrenia cases in young men triggered by cannabis use
Heavy use of the drug described as ‘a major public health issue’ despite an increasing number of countries embracing legalisation.
Young men with a serious cannabis addiction are at increased risk of developing schizophrenia, a new study suggests.
Experts estimate that nearly one third of cases of schizophrenia in 21 to 30-year-olds were triggered by cannabis use disorder.
Cannabis use disorder is thought to impact around 1 in 200 people, and relates to problematic cannabis use where people cannot control their intake and suffer withdrawal symptoms if they stop taking the drug.
A new study led by Danish researchers analysed the health records of nearly seven million people over 50 years and found a strong link between schizophrenia and serious cannabis addiction.
As many as 30 per cent of cases of schizophrenia among men aged 21 to 30, and 15 per cent of cases in 16 to 49-year-olds, could have been prevented by preventing cannabis addiction, they estimate."
Kawash's following comment is particularly noteworthy "we must be selective and disciplined as we grow our order book over the coming years. " Deciphered "we will only take on orders that give us good margins and low risk". Going forward PFC is looking to build a business based on solid returns and avoid low margin, risky contracts. Profitability will be enhanced and dividends underpinned. Current SP is a steal.
Summary:
Strong Q1 2023 Financial Results and Integration of Opiant
• SUBLOCADE Net Revenue of $132m, +55% versus Q1 2022
• Opiant Acquisition Completed; May 22nd Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) Date for OPNT003 (emergency treatment of known or suspected opioid overdose)
• Additional U.S. Listing of Indivior Ordinary Shares Planned for June