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Summary:
Strong Q1 2023 Financial Results and Integration of Opiant
• SUBLOCADE Net Revenue of $132m, +55% versus Q1 2022
• Opiant Acquisition Completed; May 22nd Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) Date for OPNT003 (emergency treatment of known or suspected opioid overdose)
• Additional U.S. Listing of Indivior Ordinary Shares Planned for June
Given that there is no mention of the massive contract received last week it appears that the Jefferies Report was written before the contract news was announced. If so the Jefferies Report is completely out of date.
Below is the current list shown on LSE going back to July 2022. It appears that approx. £2 was pretty much a consensus prior to huge contract win disclosed last week. New target £3, £4, £5...??
18-Jan-23 Barclays Equal-weight 200.00 200.00 Reiteration
21-Oct-22 Barclays Overweight 175.00 170.00 Reiteration
24-Aug-22 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 1,500.00 1,500.00 Reiteration
24-Aug-22 Barclays Equal-weight 200.00 200.00 Reiteration
12-Aug-22 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 180.00 175.00 Reiteration
12-Aug-22 Berenberg Bank Buy 200.00 200.00 Reiteration
12-Aug-22 Barclays Equal-weight 200.00 200.00 Reiteration
18-Jul-22 Barclays Equal-weight 200.00 200.00 Reiteration
13-Jul-22 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight - - Reiteration
will be coming soon. News of further contract wins? Grant Shapps just going to Japan to trumpet UK's expertise in wind energy/renewables. SP still well below its "true" value were it not for the shorts who will be feverishly looking for the exit.
What's not to like?
One does wonder how many more contract awards will be disclosed over the coming days/weeks/months. A little bit like London buses... Very pleased for Asfari & all LTHs, its been a tough few years. Stay for the ride through to a proper SP and high dividends.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1006700/indivior-sell-off-ignores-its-solid-long-term-potential-says-leading-broker-1006700.html
Current SP is a "steal".
The upbeat elements of the Results have been almost totally drowned out by the litigation news. Ideal for traders as creates uncertainty. For LTH's its a case of currently sitting this one out as the narrative changes to closure of the Opiant deal and upcoming US listing. Its also not helped that the Dow is nearly 400 points down today.
Crossley - "Looking ahead, we expect 2023 to be another year of progress for Indivior, marked by continued strong NR growth of SUBLOCADE and PERSERIS, the planned integration of Opiant and the listing of our shares on NASDAQ. As a proven leader in addiction treatment and science, Indivior is well-positioned to deliver for patients and drive long term value creation for all our stakeholders. I believe our prospects have never been brighter."
Obviously the litigation news was very disappointing and totally over-shadowed the positives on trading . However, I believe that the "litigation effect" on SP will not last that long & many of those who have sold today will buy-back in. INDV (as earlier poster commented) are "clearing the decks" ahead of the US listing. Once the dust has settled the SP will claw back much of today's SP reduction as INDV will be much "cleaner" going forward after making this provision.
I have given this a Strong Buy opinion as anyone (private or II) looking to invest in this market leader, this pull-back (current SP £17.25) represents a great opportunity to buy-in on the cheap.
IMHO, DYOR
Initial mediation sessions in late January 2023 regarding legacy civil multidistrict antitrust litigation provided the Group with new information on
"Indivior is a global pharmaceutical company working to help change patients' lives by developing medicines to treat substance use disorders (SUD) and serious mental illnesses. Our vision is that all patients around the world will have access to evidence-based treatment for the chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD. Indivior is dedicated to transforming SUD from a global human crisis to a recognized and treated chronic disease. Building on its global portfolio of OUD treatments, Indivior has a pipeline of product candidates designed to both expand on its heritage in this category and potentially address other chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD, including alcohol use disorder and cannabis use disorder."
INDV is not just about opioid addiction (although that is a whole mega-industry on its own). It is concerned with developing medicines to combat substance use disorders (SUDs) and serious mental illnesses. The important part in the above abridged "Mission Statement" is that "Indivior has a pipeline of product candidates designed to both expand on its heritage in this category and potentially address other chronic conditions and co-occurring disorders of SUD, including alcohol use disorder and cannabis use disorder." I like "pipeline of product candidates" which indicates a highly motivated, focused organization looking to grow & develop outwards from the success of SUBOXONE & SUBLOCADE.
Much more growth to come from INDV & next Thursday's results will not disappoint. I am expecting news of dividends to re-commence & possibly new product initiatives. It is to be hoped that INDV will be allowed to develop its business for a little while yet before it gets taken out by Big PHARMA for a price well North of £30-£40 per share which is only £6 to £8 per share pre-consolidation.
IMHO, DYOR etc
Indivior PLC (LON: INDV) today announced that it will release its Q4 / FY 2022 results on February 16th at 7:00 a.m. London time (2:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern). The results will be available via the London Stock Exchange's Regulatory News Service (RNS) and on the "Investors" section of the company's website at www.indivior.com.
Mark Crossley, Chief Executive Officer, and other members of Indivior's leadership team will host a presentation via live webcast at 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern) on February 16th.
Should be good appreciation in SP ahead of Q4 results. Given the increasing bank balance & imminent US listing I would expect details of dividend re-commencement. There are now only 136m shares in issue so a dividend of (say) USD1 / share (approx 4% of SP) would cost $136m. This is well covered by cash at bank.
very, very quickly. The shorts will be scrambling to get out whilst buyers will be involved in a buying frenzy to get super cheap stock. At current 78p PFC is still grossly under-valued. It will not remain like this for much longer.
Lots more appreciation to come with INDV. Any short-term weakness will be bought into as the positive factors grossly outweigh any negative ones. The company has more than USD1billion in the bank which will be benefiting from interest rate increases. US listing 2-3 months away. IMO re-introduction of dividends very shortly. But most importantly being the market leader in a growth market as the opioid crisis continues to escalate in the USA.
but When PFC starts confirming news of large contract wins which will propel SP back to a fair valuation. PI's don't know when news will drop but it will and at current SP and given level of shorts as well as FOMO kicking in, news will have a dramatic impact on SP
DYOR etc
but When PFC moves back to a "fair" valuation awaiting news of significant contract wins. Still an absolute gift at circa 73p. First SP range to gravitate to is 92p & thereafter £1+ . SP will seriously appreciate when news of large contract wins drops. Fully loaded & looking towards SP well North of £3+ & paying dividends.