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This is already taking place. Best to buy back shares now when they are very cheap at £1.60 than waiting until they are £2-£3+
Just calculated forecast SP based on assuming half year figures are simply replicated in second half (so ignoring further growth) & assuming total shares in issue of 700m (after only some buybacks from the $100m). Using PE of 8.7 (INDV ratio) and 18 (sector average) gives approx SP of £2.50 and £5. These should be viewed as a minimum because of ignoring further growth in second half, the share buyback program should reduce the shares in issue below 700m and given its high growth trajectory INDV should be on a PE higher than the sector average of 18. It will be interesting to see the imminent broker updates.
Market leader, strong growth, very profitable, share buyback program initiated. The SP will eventually catch up with the actual value of the company which is well North of £3.
This has to be one of the best opportunities currently available in large cap. Massive over-reaction to recent results compounded by innate volatility of the share & today's general market sell-off has presented a SP as low as £4.15. The bounce will come shortly and be significant. Ex-div on 22 July so expect the bounce to be sooner rather than later. The turn-around gaining traction over the next few months & take-over speculation will further boost the SP.
Investors will soon be waking up to the massive potential that INDV represents with a re-rating imminent. Market leader in a growth sector of the PHARMA market with the US government prioritizing opioid addiction treatment for financial support. Very profitable, cash generative and involved in 2 other growth sectors with treatments for schizophrenia & problems associated with marijuana use.
"Trading overall in line with our expectations. Strong growth in the EPS division and new energies Continuing impact of Covid-19 on E&C project schedules."
Solid Trading update, PFC SP simply waiting for the SFO enquiry to be finalized. Once that is out of the way the SP will motor.
"New York's Marijuana Regulation and Taxation Act, signed into law on March 31, is the most progressive cannabis legislation in the country and has profound ambitions.
Besides legalizing adult personal use of cannabis and drastically downgrading penalties for illegal use, the MRTA aims to create and regulate a new cannabis market on principles of social justice. Its goal is to channel tax revenue into communities of color, which were most affected by decades of marijuana enforcement, and give them opportunities to create thriving businesses."
New York creating precedent for other states to follow suit. This makes INDV's recent deal for exclusive distribution of medication to combat Substance Use Disorder (SUD, which includes use of marijuana) all the more compelling.
Jefferies raises target price to £2.25. Price drop today is great opportunity to pick up cheap shares.
The true current value of the company in terms of SP is well north of £3 IMO and this excludes any potential takeover premium. The move into CUD has enormous potential and is a natural progression for INDV cementing its position as market leader in SUD. As the DOJ trauma wears off the SP will appreciate as value considerations take precedence. Interim results due shortly (possibly July) so should see further appreciation in SP over the next few weeks.
The true current value of the company in terms of SP is well north of £3 IMO and this excludes any potential takeover premium. The move into CUD has enormous potential and is a natural progression for INDV cementing its position as market leader in SUD. As the DOJ trauma wears off the SP will appreciate as value considerations take precedence. Interim results due shortly (possibly July) so should see further appreciation in SP over the next few weeks.
Expect a strengthening of SP as head towards 1 July Interims with prospect of further dividend.
RNS just out with respect to an agreement leading to securing the global rights to new treatment for CUD. Apparently 10% of cannabis users in USA had a CUD in 2019 amounting to 4.8 million people. However, there is no FDA approved medication for CUD. This further underpins INDV's position as the market leader in SUD (Substance Use Disorder).
"Our heritage and focus is helping address unmet needs for people struggling with substance use disorders," said Mark Crossley, Chief Executive Officer. "Increasing prevalence of cannabis from the growing movement to legalize medical and recreational marijuana use is leading to greater concern for the potential of adverse outcomes, including elevated addiction risk2. Cannabis is the most commonly used substance of abuse in the US after alcohol and tobacco3; however, we have no FDA-approved medications for cannabis-related disorders, which are complex and concerning. AEF0117 is the most advanced new chemical entity under investigation in the clinic and potentially represents a unique opportunity to address a growing unmet public health need."
Over 48 million4 people used marijuana in the U.S. in 2019 and 4.8 million4 people had a CUD during the same period. The United Nations also recently estimated that 192 million people globally used cannabis in 20185, making it the most used drug in the world. The most recent global burden of disease study including 195 countries over the 1990-2016 period estimated that 22.1 million people met the diagnostic criteria for CUD (289.7 cases per 100,000 people)6.
"We are excited about the potential for our partnership with Aelis," said Christian Heidbreder, Chief Scientific Officer. "Our collaboration to advance the clinical development of AEF0117 reflects the success of our Connect and Develop R&D strategy that seeks to marry our drug discovery and development capabilities with innovators targeting the most promising pharmacological mechanisms in substance use disorders and related CNS diseases. Favorable data in support of Aelis' new CB1-SSis have the potential to yield the necessary clinical proof of concept to advance AEF0117 closer to regulatory approval as the first medication to treat CUD."
Broker Shore Capital said it doubts a Court will go against the wishes of creditors, especially when the majority voting in favour is likely to be so large, and it noted that the FCA has already said it is not proposing to take any additional regulatory action that might stope the scheme were it to be agreed by the creditors and sanctioned by the court.
"Amigo has also previously indicated that the business would be forced into insolvency proceedings if the scheme fails to win approval, in which case claimants would get nothing. As such, if the FCA was to be successful in stopping the scheme going ahead, this would likely see an even worse outcome for claimants, thus defeating its own objective.
"We think the FCA likely knows this and therefore is simply trying to be seen to do the right thing."
The Court will back Creditors vote rather than FCA who are basically saying that Creditors can't make a rational decision about how to vote. If that were applied to political elections there would never be any.
Received below article today from Energy & Capital which although referencing another Gold Miner is still applicable to GGP. Hardly rocket science given the Biden "stimulus" to the US economy that inflation will dramatically increase and Gold will go through the roof. LTH's will not need any reassurance that GGP is seriously under-valued but may assist new investors to realize the incredible opportunity that the current GGP SP represents.
Energy and Capital
4 Trillion Reasons to Own Gold Right Now
Rupert Hargreaves at Motley Fool makes the following comment about INDV in a recent (27th March) recommendation:
"Based on current estimates, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.7 for 2022, compared to the sector average of 18.
While these are just estimates, I think they illustrate Indivior’s potential. That’s why I’d buy the stock today."
Based on the sector average P/E of 18 as opposed to INDV's 8.7 means that INDV would need to be approx £2.60 to have a sector P/E average of 18. No wonder the SP has been heading North over the last few days.
The other factor that could well be motoring the SP is the interest of large PHARMA. INDV is market leader in opioid addiction treatment which is a growth market. It also has a grossly under-valued SP compared to the market average. It is ripe for takeover and must be a target for several large PHARMA companies. This may have influenced recent changes in governance and also explain Scopia's (INDV's largest investor with 16.9%) being given a seat on the board. When being involved in a bid war it makes sense to have the largest II on side as well as seasoned industry experts with large PHARMA backgrounds to assist. Interesting times ahead.
shareholder and significantly strengthening the board is very positive for the company from a growth perspective. The skills of the new board members and closely working with Scopia will also be very beneficial managing takeover advances (as & when they occur) from large PHARMA.