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Investors keeping their powder dry for possible "large" (however defined) fine. I don't think this will be the case due to the deal already done with SFO. I expect a very soft landing which will quickly propel the SP over £2. Thereafter appreciation to £4+ as there will be lots of good news being delayed until after the Hearing. Make no mistake the settling of this matter with SFO is a massive game changer for PFC. In a year or 18months time this could easily be back up to £6+.

SP still dirt cheap and 12 months trading update due in November.

The following is taken from today's statement & clearly shows that the SFO's part of the deal with PFC is to effectively "support" PFC at the Hearing ("SFO's recognition that Petrofac is a changed company...transformed leadership...etc"). Whether PFC was actually "guilty" of any wrong-doing is open to debate but getting this legal overhang out of the way makes complete sense from a commercial perspective. A return to normality for PFC and a return to a SP (£4+ in due course) that properly reflects the intrinsic value of the company.
"The penalty will be determined at the sole discretion of the Court. It may take into account submissions by the Company as to its ability to pay, along with the SFO's recognition that Petrofac is a changed company with transformed leadership, personnel, compliance and assurance processes."

The fine should be "reasonable" as previously commented which makes PFC a huge Buy. The horse-trading behind the scenes between the legal teams has obviously been going on for some time and will be the major reason why Asfari left in December 2020. I think that both sides will have been looking for a win:win and this appears to be the best way of achieving that position. Major upside to PFC's SP.

There is a risk with the Hearing on Monday but already well priced-in to the SP. This will rapidly re-rate after the Hearing assuming that any fine is "reasonable". My SP target is £4+ within 3 months assuming a "reasonable" fine.

Daily share buy-backs have been costing about £450k / day. So assuming this level of daily spend continues buy-backs will carry on until approx. Jan/Feb 2022. There are 3rd Quarter results due in October 2021 and FY in February 2022.
There doesn't appear too much appetite for selling currently which is hardly surprising given steady re-purchase of shares to continue well into 2022.
So SP continues to climb back to where it should really be which IMHO could easily be £6 based on a continuation of the trading improvement reported with the half year results together with the buy-backs.
A £6 SP would only put INDV on a PE in the high teens which is only in line with the sector average. It could be argued that this is far too too pedestrian for INDV given its market-leading position in a high growth market and also does not include any potential predator interest from big PHARMA.

BUY at this SP. Must be attractive also to break-up specialists. So whether hold for inevitable SP appreciation ahead of results in November or benefit from a bid attracted by the very low SP MCRO is a no-brainer buy.

Daily share buy-backs have been costing about £450k / day. INDV has allotted about £72m ($100m) in total for buy-backs. So assuming a daily spend of approx. £0.5m, buy-backs will carry on until approx. Jan/Feb 2022. 3rd Quarter results due in October 2021 and FY in February 2022 will straddle the buy-backs.
Assuming INDV have continued to perform well (at least in line with previous guidance) and that there are no IIs who decide to significantly reduce their current holdings (why would they when SP heading North), the SP could easily climb to £6+ possibly even by February 2022 (assuming general market conditions/economies etc stay reasonable). This would only put INDV on a PE in the high teens which is in line with the sector average.
If above is the case then we are virtually at the beginning of a major re-rate for the SP which will also attract other IIs and funds giving further impetus to the SP.
Given the amount of cash generation that the company enjoys it also raises the question whether there will be a second buy-back initiative (another $100m?) to begin when the current one ends or whether the company will commence dividends. Either of these would further propel the SP beyond Feb 2022.
Still waiting for broker upgrades & any large pharma interest in potential take-over gives added momentum to the SP.

The SP peaked in 2018 just below £5 but was being held back even then by legal matters & fears of SUBOXONE losing market share to copies. All legal issues have now been resolved, SUBOXONE is still very much the preferred variant & INDV's slow release SUBLOCADE is generating significant growth. The opioid problem is still growing particularly in USA so a move back towards the previous £5 peak and very possibly beyond is well within the capabilities of INDV. The new product to combat problems caused by using cannabis and takeover interest from big PHARMA simply adds further weight to the upward momentum.

Share buyback and Director buys are fueling the rise but I wonder whether the imminent broker upgrades are soon to be announced. Still massively under-valued, with current SP of about £1.72 being less than half the "true" value of a share IMO.

Graham Hetherington, Chairman of INDV just made the purchase (RNS out today).

The Buyback purchasing is driving the SP upwards ahead of Broker upgrades which will be imminent. These will give further momentum to the SP.

This is already taking place. Best to buy back shares now when they are very cheap at £1.60 than waiting until they are £2-£3+

Just calculated forecast SP based on assuming half year figures are simply replicated in second half (so ignoring further growth) & assuming total shares in issue of 700m (after only some buybacks from the $100m). Using PE of 8.7 (INDV ratio) and 18 (sector average) gives approx SP of £2.50 and £5. These should be viewed as a minimum because of ignoring further growth in second half, the share buyback program should reduce the shares in issue below 700m and given its high growth trajectory INDV should be on a PE higher than the sector average of 18. It will be interesting to see the imminent broker updates.

Market leader, strong growth, very profitable, share buyback program initiated. The SP will eventually catch up with the actual value of the company which is well North of £3.

This has to be one of the best opportunities currently available in large cap. Massive over-reaction to recent results compounded by innate volatility of the share & today's general market sell-off has presented a SP as low as £4.15. The bounce will come shortly and be significant. Ex-div on 22 July so expect the bounce to be sooner rather than later. The turn-around gaining traction over the next few months & take-over speculation will further boost the SP.

Investors will soon be waking up to the massive potential that INDV represents with a re-rating imminent. Market leader in a growth sector of the PHARMA market with the US government prioritizing opioid addiction treatment for financial support. Very profitable, cash generative and involved in 2 other growth sectors with treatments for schizophrenia & problems associated with marijuana use.

"Trading overall in line with our expectations. Strong growth in the EPS division and new energies Continuing impact of Covid-19 on E&C project schedules."
Solid Trading update, PFC SP simply waiting for the SFO enquiry to be finalized. Once that is out of the way the SP will motor.

"New York's Marijuana Regulation and Taxation Act, signed into law on March 31, is the most progressive cannabis legislation in the country and has profound ambitions.
Besides legalizing adult personal use of cannabis and drastically downgrading penalties for illegal use, the MRTA aims to create and regulate a new cannabis market on principles of social justice. Its goal is to channel tax revenue into communities of color, which were most affected by decades of marijuana enforcement, and give them opportunities to create thriving businesses."
New York creating precedent for other states to follow suit. This makes INDV's recent deal for exclusive distribution of medication to combat Substance Use Disorder (SUD, which includes use of marijuana) all the more compelling.

Jefferies raises target price to £2.25. Price drop today is great opportunity to pick up cheap shares.