Member Info for BetterX

aal sp in freefall due to mine closure...a case of reaping what you sow...??

For those who would like to get into aal their sp in downward spiral due to mine closure...may be a case of reaping what you sow...

Below is a brief profile of 1 of INDVs lead attorney's. Loonam worked extensively as a Prosecutor including health care fraud and will know the way that DoJ works inside out. Having this quality of person as an advocate will greatly assist INDV. The recent verbal presentations made on the current Motion will have given indication of the relative strengths of the positions of both sides and removed a lot of the unknowns. Nothing is ever certain in legal cases but that holds for both sides. I think that once the Judge has decided on the Motion a settlement will be negotiated soon after. If I am correct then an end to this DoJ action could be just a few weeks (2-3) away. Neither side will want a full blown court case.

"James Loonam is a former federal prosecutor and seasoned trial attorney. He regularly advises companies, boards of directors, board committees, and senior executives in sensitive and high-stakes investigations by the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and other criminal and regulatory authorities. James has a proven track record of securing difficult to obtain evidence and identifying and deploying novel and effective legal arguments to obtain optimal outcomes for clients. He regularly handles matters involving allegations of securities fraud, foreign and domestic corruption, False Claims Act violations, insider trading, accounting fraud, and cyber breaches.

Prior to joining Jones Day, James was an Assistant United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York and Deputy Chief of that office's Business and Securities Fraud Section. James led and supervised high-profile cases involving the FCPA, insider trading, securities fraud, health care fraud, and money laundering offenses. He personally led groundbreaking FCPA investigations, including the investigation and conviction of a publicly traded hedge fund for corrupt transactions in Africa. James conducted numerous jury trials and successfully briefed and argued 19 appeals before the Second Circuit Court of Appeals.

James also prosecuted numerous significant terrorism cases, including a case the then-Attorney General of the United States described as involving "one of the most serious terrorist threats to our nation since September 11th, 2001." James has worked closely with the CIA, NSA, Department of Defense, and foreign law enforcement and intelligence agencies. He also has tried cases involving murder, kidnapping, racketeering, tax evasion, and firearms."

Total shares about 732m, so market cap about GB£300m but about GB£800m in bank and current PE about 2... Obviously DoJ is currently spoiling the SP but for how much longer ? Max about 10 weeks. And what PE after case settled assuming reasonable settlement ? About 8-10 imho. Do the math and explains the current uptick in SP.

Just some v basic calculations to contrast against the current SP (all approxs) & given DoJ issue. Net cash at end 3rd quarter £615m GBP, shares in issue 730m, profit at end quarter 3 £140m GBP, current market cap £254m GBP. Based on a (guesstimated) full year profit of £180m GBP and with a PE of 8, the SP should be about £2.00 with the net cash in there for nothing. Current SP 34.5p...

It may be a good idea to recap on the DoJ's claims. The following is taken from INDV Chairman Howard Pien's Open Letter in April 2019:
"The government makes two main claims against the company: that it aided the careless and clinically unwarranted prescribing by doctors of SUBOXONE® products to too many people or in too high doses; and that it misled doctors and patients by claiming that SUBOXONE® film was safer than tablets at reducing accidental exposure to children.

Here’s what you should know:
Indivior has never deliberately diverted its product. In fact, the company went beyond what the law required through its extensive education campaign to doctors about the rules governing SUBOXONE® prescriptions and by reporting the conduct of multiple physicians to the appropriate authorities.
The federal government’s own scientific agencies have stated that Suboxone film in its unit-dose packaging reduces the risk of accidental pediatric exposure. For example, the Centers for Disease Control has found that pediatric exposure dropped dramatically after Suboxone film was introduced to the market. We are frankly surprised the Justice Department would indict a company for making claims the government’s own researchers believe are true."

INDV are currently trying to obtain details of the evidence that the DoJ has that underpins their charges. This is a normal part of the legal transparency that is required before a trial commences so that a Defendant can properly prepare its defence to the charges made against it. The DoJ is unwilling to provide the information. Make of the DoJ's refusal what you will but my take is that if their evidence was that compelling it would not have to be forced out.

Not a rant Daniel, just a statement of fact. DoJ modus operandi is to pressure companies into paying exorbitant fines. Sometimes this is valid but in INDV's case it is not, which is why the company is fighting the charges. One only has to read some of the testimonials from users of Suboxone & the way that the medication has enabled them to claw their way back from the brink to understand the great merit of what INDV are doing. The real culprits in the opioid addiction crisis are the Govt bodies that first approved opioid containing treatments. That mistake is now being reprised with the legitimising of cannabis use which will result in a similar epidemic in due course as user dependency on the drug grows & stronger variants are introduced. INDV already have a medication to combat schizophrenia in adults (PERSERIS) which I believe (sadly) will significantly grow in sales value as cannabis usage surges.

INDV have the right to rebut the DoJ's response on these procedural issues by 30th January. The date for the matter to be heard in court is in May.

This no doubt goes some way to explaining the significant price drop over the last 2 days. INDV have the right to respond to the DoJ and then a ruling will be given. It appears that INDV have requested details of the evidence that is being used against them & DoJ is refusing to give it. One can only surmise that if DoJ is unwilling to give the full details then the relative strength of their case is called into question. The best way to get a Defendant to capitulate is to present such an overwhelming case against them that they beg to settle.

2019 was a very turbulent year for PFG. This update shows that the company is now very much on track and given the company's dividend policy will be a good earner going forward. I also agree that the SP is significantly under-valued so the current rise to £4.54 at time of writing is still far short of fundamental value.

The DoJ will want to get the best return for its time input and given the multiple actions that are currently underway against various pharma companies pursuing a war of legal attrition with INDV will not be that attractive. The more work that DoJ has to do during these pre-trial legal wranglings and the more the quality (or lack of it) of their evidence is able to be scrutinised then the greater the probability that they will do a deal & put their efforts where there will be a much greater return. This puts INDV in a much stronger position to minimise or eradicate a fine. As, when & if that happens the SP will go into orbit.

Following explains "The exclusionary rule is one way the amendment is enforced. Established in Weeks v. United States (1914), this rule holds that evidence obtained as a result of a Fourth Amendment violation is generally inadmissible at criminal trials. Evidence discovered as a later result of an illegal search may also be inadmissible as "fruit of the poisonous tree", unless it inevitably would have been discovered by legal means." INDV legal team are claiming that DoJ obtained information illegally & this should not be used against INDV in any subsequent legal proceedings. Given the (arguably) tenuous nature of the DoJ's case against INDV, this if upheld would make their case even more difficult to prove were this case (ever) to proceed to court.

This is where it was before MW so reasonable to assume that it would get back to that level. Whether its today or in a few weeks time £20+ must be on the cards assuming that MW have no further credible negative information...

BOD finally range the right bell, Santa arrives early...

Need to read FT article on off-balance sheet financing. Reproduced on ADVFN chat which explains today's plummet. Difficult to decide whether it will bounce or go down further given MW involvement & billionaire major holders behind the stock.

No it means Woodford now gone. The sale of Woodford's stake in PFG has depressed the SP over the last few months & given great opportunity to buy stock at bargain basement prices.

I think could be an example of the DoJ "doth protesteth too much..." about protecting the sources that have under-pinned their case. Maybe (possibly) their "evidence" is not all that robust...A case of smoke & mirrors?

New Analysis From One-Year Study of Monthly Buprenorphine Extended-Release
Injections Showed Improved or Stable Patient-Centered Outcomes



- Sustained improvements in multiple health outcomes following twelve monthly
buprenorphine extended-release injections in patients with opioid use disorder -



- Findings published in the Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment -



Slough, UK and Richmond, VA, December 2, 2019 - Indivior PLC (LON: INDV) announced today that new analysis from a 12-month investigation of monthly buprenorphine extended-release injections showed that study participants who were treated with SUBLOCADE® (buprenorphine extended-release) injection, for subcutaneous use (CIII), demonstrated improved or maintained patient-centered outcomes across the following measures:

· Health status and health-related quality of life,

· Employment/insurance status,

· Healthcare resource utilization,

· Medication satisfaction,

· Treatment effectiveness and improvement in addiction severity as measured by a patient reported Addiction Severity Index.1

I take it that he's referring to the legal wrangles over generics etc as well as the RB case. The DoJ are still there but does this merit the SP being at current level?? It does show the effect of uncertainty on the psyche of investors but as previously posted it also gives them the chance to buy into a seriously undervalued stock IMHO

MF are not everyone's favourite but Karl Loomes deserves credit for his selection.

Karl Loomes: Sirius Minerals
Not without some risks perhaps, but embattled miner Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) is starting to offer the potential for too large an upside to ignore, in my opinion. As I see it, there are three scenarios shareholders are likely to face – two of which should earn those who buy stock now money.

The first is that it effectively goes bust. In my eyes, an equally likely scenario – given the size of the deposit it sits on and the infrastructure already in place – is that it is either bought out or merged with another firm, and investors get some decent returns. The last scenario is that it manages to secure enough funding to keep it going, eventually moving into production and making very good money. This is the scenario that could make investors rich.

Karl has shares in Sirius Minerals.