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So much smoke and mirrors as always with OMI. Well constructed JV’s would have clauses which protect the junior partner should the senior partner seek to ‘ dither and delay’ as a tactic to buy out the junior ‘ on the cheap’. It is frustrating that the full details of the JV agreement are not in the public domain. For example, there should be a right of first refusal if one of the parties wishes to mothball the project or perhaps some option to sell our 49% stake based on an independent valuation etc. Brad ‘ above my pay grade’ George perhaps should now be known as Brad ‘ out of my depth ‘ George. Some say he is good Geo but he has done absolutely nothing to convince me that he is a competent, well rounded CEO. The details on the other projects today were no doubt written as justification for his over-inflated salary so he will not simply be playing golf for the next 3 years. He can burn through our cash travelling to and from SA! Always remember that it is very easy for directors of listed companies to gift themselves new options to replace out of the money options. That is why Brad has only bought a notional amount with his own cash. Stinks but I invested here based on the presence of 2 majors so I will have to take the hit.
Just for the sake of balance, there are organisations called Banks whose business model is to lend money. All cash raised with small caps does not have to be a dilutive equity raise and given that Eroxon is now selling and generating revenue I am sure that the management team will now be well received if they take their cash flow forecasts into their bankers if they need some short term assistance. After all, management are shareholders too and will want to protect their own assets as much as we do. Typical bulletin board rhetoric to suggest more equity raise particularly for those who want a cheaper entry eh?
Traders cashing in all or some which is not surprising but volume is low today so LO probably waiting for FDA RNS before making their next move. Lots of potential upside here with limited downside risk IMO. Whilst the FDA approval cannot be guaranteed it is more likely to be good news than bad so the risk of being out is fairly high as news could come any day. It is likely however that news will be leaked as it almost always is these days as regulators do nothing so a flurry of buying may be the signal, conversely so if the news is negative.
Very frustrating when this skittish market ignores very strong trading updates. It is the short term nature of the investment community these days. London markets are struggling whilst other markets around the world perform better. It is no wonder that new listings are going elsewhere. UK listed companies become targets at times like this. Is it no wonder than foreign capital is snapping up bargains in UK when our home grown investors just don’t get it. Taking a company private is no easy matter but I am sure that there are boards of small to medium listed companies looking at other options. Share buy backs in my experience rarely improve the share price materially ( yes eps) and if that is a KPI you can understand why they do it but I guess the management team should keeps their heads down and continue to grow the business and when an appetite returns for risk assets we will eventually see fair value here. Hard work!
Bucolic - I can tell from your reply to my first post for years that you have little or no experience of the corporate world and indeed participating on plc Boards. Unitt is a NED working a day or 2 each month so will provide advice and guidance from his own corporate experience which will be beneficial I am sure. My point, which appears to have gone straight over your head, is that developing a business at an exciting stage of its development requires a different skill set than what JB has exhibited in his tenure. That is not to say that he should not take credit for what he has achieved to date, but IMO he should take a back seat and allow a more accomplished corporate leader steer the ship - hope that is explicit enough for you.
I have recently invested again here having sold out a few years ago due to extreme frustration with our BOD and especially our CEO. Small listed Pharma stocks often fail as scientists think that, as they are highly intelligent people, it follows that their skills are easily transferable to the cut and thrust of a listed plc - wrong! You need top level communication, commercial and marketing knowledge too! Despite this we are so close to FDA approval that this is a very strong investment now IMO and I thought I had missed the boat. When will the Board’s realise that it is necessary to hire professional management with the requisite business skills who can manage the business and leave the scientists to the science.
Alaric - you do make me laugh. You may be familiar with the term confirmation bias, well you have it in spades! Your resolute support of OF and the constant dither and delay reaffirms your bias as you clearly cannot see the wood for the trees. The “ we just need to hang on for another year and we will be alright” mantra didn’t wash with me and I am sure many of the other so called dimwits on here who have chosen to preserve capital, or whatever is left of it. Many of those who does not wear the same brand of rose tinted glasses as you are no longer here having sold in the 30’s. This has been a car crash over the past couple of years by any measure. Look at yourself in the mirror and you may not like what you see.
Red - I do not dispute what you say but recent performance has been lamentable as you know and the immediate future does not look too bright does it? July 21 share suspended at 40p. Out of suspension a year later at 40p and now under 20p. No clarity on what happens next. Buyers will be hard to find ( save Tosca ) but perhaps they have hit their own limits, who knows but time will tell. I will simply sit back now, and watch how this all unfolds but as a betting man, and I am, I would not put a dime on OF sorting this out to the satisfaction of long suffering PI’s but then again his master is Tosca so they will determine his fate.
Bottom line is that Maxit will be doing the heavy lifting here and not Caldwell so what will he be rewarded for what - assuming the title of CEO of a zombie company? All shareholders will have the opportunity to vote against these confetti options when the company gets around to arranging a vote. Of course it will be more difficult to vote this down with recent dilution but if all PI’s make the effort to do so along with BHP, NCM and others there must be some chance it is voted down. Why not simply award him a bonus on successful completion of a deal rather than risk the ire of weary shareholders? Makes little sense to me but nothing which this company does makes any sense. No wonder London markets are losing out to other financial centres. This will continue going forward that I have no doubt as Boards know it is quite easy to shaft retail shareholders.
Toscafund’s 75% holding is slowing the fall here. For transparency, I sold out here over the last month fearing that there were serious problems in SLE getting over the line. Dither and delay is a watchword with this company and here we go again. Held post suspension as the economics were compelling but a 50% drop from 40p to 20p says it all. It is tempting to invest at these levels but it seems to me that NNPC’s actions, if nothing else, will add many more months onto the timeline, best case. Worst case it scuppers the deal entirely leaving the company scrambling to recover funds owed. High risk has become extremely high risk. Will continue to track progress closely however as high risk means high reward if OF can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Alaric - you were very comfortable with your position here a couple of weeks ago although I recognise that things have changed significantly. I would welcome your thoughts as to whether you think the market reaction is overdone and that we may see a quick resolution here? Will Toscafund start to buy more to prop up the price perhaps?
Stumpy I know, in fact for the last 18 months there are those who have made a virtue of selling at the lowest price possible during a full day’s trading at the end of day auction. Some may say that they are just not very good at this game but others will know that this is a tried and tested strategy used by shorting teams to suppress a share price. Those that do it consistently deny it but I know that it happens. Eventually they will disappear but as we are in an uncomfortable vacuum with Newcrest calling the shots it makes their job that much easier.
Sold out my residual holding here today. The NNPC are most likely overstepping the mark or sending a strong message. It doesn’t really matter what their motive is but the effect will to hamper the transaction, of that I have little doubt. What happens next? Litigation or will the NNPC admit to being heavy handed and allow Eroton to carry on with assurances that they will make good any obligations when the transaction is finalised. No idea but I don’t like this latest banana skin from within this banana republic so for that reason I will wish all patient and genuine shareholders good fortune.
Chickenlegs - as I expected one of the many traders on here posting regularly and giving advice to sell when you have exited which you are most likely not qualified to do so! I would be careful if I was you. The more experienced investors will know to do their own research and won’t be drawn into believing regular posters on these boards who will talk their own book ( just topped up again blah blah). Often the reality rarely matches what one reads . I can see it a mile off from other regulars on here too. Bottom line IMO is that if you are in a position to hold for a bit longer there maybe clarity on the new JVA and we can make a judgement at that time if sufficient detail is provided as to whether the share price will ever reflect potential.
Couple of points to make here. The rise we have seen over the last week or so from 7.5p to 9.5p whilst most welcome is almost certainly due to buying from those aware that the funds had arrived. No date given but I would strongly suspect they did not arrive last night! Always the case but regulators do nothing. Those folks will be selling this morning. This gives the market comfort but we are so far under the radar atm it will take time and some adept marketing from Brad when the JVA is signed to reignite wider investor interest. Secondly, this has been torture over the last 6 months with little clarity and market makers are acutely aware of this and will use to their advantage. As someone else correctly pointed out the drilling has not yet recommenced and the new JVA will still take some months to complete it seems. Brad ( over my pay grade) now has to up his game and ensure that we are respected partners in a JV with an ability to inform the company’s shareholders on a timely and consistent basis what is happening with progress on the various tenements. This will be key to ensure that we do not simply drift at current levels whilst MMA spend another $20m + drilling the prospects. Let’s also hope that Brad does not go mad with $4m in the Bank as none of us will be impressed if he seeks to issue new equity down the line at low levels and before the market gets a chance to recognise what are sitting on. Over to you Brad, you are a very well paid CEO for a micro cap so you need to step up to the plate.
GGPTh - my last word on this after all we are all on the same side, I think! Using the brokers reports and estimates of free cash flow when we go into production, I can calculate using market multiples that our 30% share of Havieron has a value 3-4 times or more than our current share price when we ramp up to full production. Strategically I can easily see the potential merits of controlling Telfer but we have a £400m + market cap a reasonable amount of debt, 5bn shares in issue and to assume control of Telfer and 100% of Hav would cost multiples of our current market cap. So, I am all for dreaming but it is the numbers which will determine success or failure, no?
Jerryspaniel. That is an arrogant post. This is simply your opinion without any supporting facts. I am someone who deals in facts and until we see some value created here supported by compelling data I and others will reserve the right to question. SD is not the messiah and whilst he is a relented individual I want to see evidence of his talents in terms of shareholder value creation. The just is still out and that is a fact not simply an opinion.
Important to recognise that there will be huge amounts of speculative print when a merger between two giants of gold mining is being contemplated. There may well be an opportunity for GGP management to participate in a shake up of assets and SD and our team will be all over it I am sure. The challenge we have atm IMO is that we are working on historical data and we still have no firm handle on the full potential of Hav when we finally reach the edges of the ore body. I am also reticent therefore to see large equity raises or significant debt without being very clear about the value proposition . Yes, if sufficient data can be presented which shows an accretive transaction I may be able to support it but perhaps we need to walk before we run. SD is clearly very ambitious, which is a good thing, but I do hope that we don’t bite off more than we can chew. Bringing in even more large backers at a low equity price may be great for management as they can always find new incentive schemes to replace existing ones but for long term shareholders any ambitious new transaction will have to be very convincing for me at least. Long term shareholders in GGP have by nature a healthy risk appetite for investing here in the first place but we are less than 18 months from producing now and generating cash for the first time ever so any new large deals need to be good for all shareholders and not just for the new backers and mates of our rock star board members.
It really is tiresome to read the same old stuff about the risk of low-ball offer which comes around every couple of weeks. Those shareholders who are concerned should consider the share register, high number of retail shareholders and relatively small number of institutions. Let’s assume a high premium of 50% was offered by an offeror, so 12p. Would that excite SD, CB or our rock star Board members who have just arrived at the party with options with a base around that level. Unlikely. Would that excite the loyal retail shareholders who have been here since 2016/17? Unlikely as they know what may be possible here given time. Would that sort of offer excite new shareholders many of whom are under water having invested in the 20’s? Possibly to allow an exit but unlikely. As someone who has been invested since 2016 I have no concern whatsoever about a low-ball offer making headway due to the factors above. Yes the share price stagnating at these levels is frustrating but I don’t expect much change until the DTM/new MRE are announced the the market or other left field news is announced. So, perhaps those worried about a low-ball offer should consider the facts which are public knowledge within the share register before worrying unnecessarily.
Archways. My knowledge of the blue book is a little out of date from my time in the City but I do know that the offer period started today with the publicly announced offer so the clock is ticking. The Takeover Panel in OZ would most likely have been aware of the fact that there had been an earlier offer perhaps on a no-names basis or perhaps on a named basis it doesn’t matter but this earlier offer was not in the public domain and therefore no risk of a false market. I am pretty certain that the fact that Newcrest have a JV with us makes no difference at all and would not mean that the connected parties or advisers would have to declare any interest in GGP. There will be numerous corporate entities who have relationships such as the JV we have with NCM and it would be impossible and unnecessary to force disclosure from all commercial partners which is what GGP is. There are also exemptions from disclosure when in an offer period to avoid some professional advisers and principal traders having to disclose positions ie. Funds and large banks etc which have little relevance to the transaction and to avoid a mountain of pointless admin. Those entities must present the reasons why they should have exempt or special exempt status and the case officers at the Takeover Panel will make that decision. None of that should affect us as we are not in the offer period, we are just a commercial partner of NCM.
Good evening Alaric. I bought into SLE 5 years ago or more and have managed to make some reasonable returns along the way despite the challenges, of which there have been many, in the time I have been invested. I am very patient with many of my investments and often do well as a result so have no issue with that philosophy. Here is another “ Successful investing is about time in the market, not timing the market” there are many more to suit every situation. We all have our red lines and the suspension in 2021 followed by delay upon delay last year following the ‘forced’ return from suspension ( my words) is a red line for me despite the fact that the economic case should the RTO succeed looks very attractive. So, I still have a fair sum invested should this jump 100% or more on announcement of the completion of the deal. I am taking the view that even if this deal does proceed it may not be as straightforward as we would all wish ( compromises to get over the line) and therefore I can take a view at that time about investing more if I see an opportunity even if I miss the initial spike. I have been in the markets a long time and persistent delays with limited explanation never feels good to me and sometimes ends badly. Trust in management is a big deal for me and the procrastination here for reasons that are not clear to us minions is a step too far for me at this time. We all know that doing business in this jurisdiction is fraught with difficulty and my risk reward felt a little out of kilter in the context of my overall portfolio given the persistent delays.
Perhaps you can explain why you will not tolerate any negativity about SLE here despite the obvious issues we have all experienced in delivering what has been promised. Can I suggest that you read up on confirmation bias if you are not familiar with the term? Not wishing to be derogatory but when some people try and defend the indefensible I want to understand why.