Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
I posted yesterday that Abramovich and his concert party could take the company private by making an offer. The news today clearly supersedes that potential outcome and is not a great surprise and IMO this suspension will last for a considerable period of time and may never re-list. A concert party where Abramovich has effective control probably applied to Evraz yet they deny it today which is predictable of the Board who are close friends of Abramovich. What else could they do? He probably told them to issue that statement today, which they will deny, but would in itself confirm the existence of a concert part. Evraz have benefitted from money acquired vis RA from the Russian state and the only person to blame for this sad situation today is his close friend, Putin, and not the UK government. Legal action will do nothing in the short term as no-one is interested within this jurisdiction of hearing the pleadings. I agree with others here that the assets will most likely find their way into the hands of ‘new’ shareholders in the future within Russia which is a incredibly sad for the employees who are of course innocent bystanders. All IMHO.
Understandable frustration here today. Abramovich and his concert party could make a low offer secure in the knowledge that they should secure enough votes. This may or may not happen. These deals take time and with so much uncertainty going around, their Investment Bank advisors will caution them given the uncertainty and the IB’s have their own reputations to think about too. Cash is king in times like this. Billions of £ of paper value are being marked down for Abramovich and other oligarchs atm so they will all be scrambling around looking at options to minimise the pain as their compatriots continue to rain misery down on a peaceful nation. Makes you think about what is really important. Setting aside the moral dilemma this is as risky as it gets IMO. Greed will encourage some to buy on the dip tomorrow am but others will pass up the opportunity and wait and see what is on Putin’s list of companies which will be hamstrung by new laws.
Time - I have been investing for 30 years yet I am often surprised at the clear manipulation that goes on especially on AIM yet there are also opportunities like this one. Nowadays I tend to just shrug it off and stick to the fundamentals. I invested here given the involvement of 2 big players and the fact that we are on a free carry in Colombia. The jurisdiction is not perfect but better than some ( Chile and Peru). Our market cap is modest and the potential upside is very attractive from here but many are trapped from the highs of last year and some will have sold out over the last year keeping the price down. Many of those posting here are traders that is obvious to me as modest vol can move the price. We need more buyer who will hold here before we see a take off. Brad is not the most impressive CEO ( he is a GEO) but that is just a title. He needs to communicate more frequently, he needs to put his hand in his pocket and buy shares with his own cash. That does concern me but perhaps he will at some point. I voted my significant holding against him remaining as a director to give him a kick up the backside yet it did not appear to show in the numbers at the AGM. I will retain my holding and watch our esteemed partners ramp up their drilling and take control of the asset in Colombia. The other JV’s are a side show for now. If you can afford to hold for a couple of years you could make a decent return here if the drilling delivers decent results. At some point the exit could be hat Newmont or Agnico or both buy us out. Gold is still in the ground so spot price changes are not the driver here IMO. A good hedge in the current market it just does not feel like it today.
Little trader - obvious that you do not understand what is required to take a listed company private. It requires an offer to be made to all shareholders just like any other offer. Now, which of the many funds who have bought in at £1, £2, £3 etc will be happy to accept, say a £1 offer even though this would be at a 30% premium to todays price. None - IMO unless the BOD have been lying to us about their growth over the last few years and it is all a big scam. Now, I think that the May be considering this as an option given the farcical share price but they would have to offer 150p plus for any of the big shareholders to think about. It would be good to see the shorts closing if an offer did come in though.
The BOD are at the mercy of Putin in terms of his ongoing invasion of Ukraine and potential future sanctions which could be more impactful on the company than we have seen so far. That is the risk writ large for existing and new investors. My biggest concern is that whomsoever has been involved in this complex series of transactions will have put further discussions on hold at best. If licences are awaiting they will be on hold, if cash is awaited either from lending or from the coffers of the buyers that will be put on hold, as lenders even from foreign institutions will not lend to acquire assets in Russia at a time like this. Furthermore, the buyer or buyers of the assets will wait and see how this plays out as this is a binary play. The longer this war rages, the less likely this deal will happen. All very depressing but I just cannot see the positives here as much as I want to. All IMO.
CNBC interview with Ukrainian Foreign minister a few moments ago. Chilling statement from him “ every Russian double earned will have Ukrainian blood on it”. Now, if that sentiment is shared around the world and the reaction to Russian business mirror’s BP’s decision, I fear for the future success here despite being an investor here for some time.
So, we find out in a Newcrest presentation to be delivered today by Sandeep Biswas that the MRE2 will be pushed back to August and the FS will be pushed back up to 6 months. If Sean Day was aware of this I suspect that he would have preferred to get ahead of the news so that he could explain to his shareholders, who own 30% of Havieron, why this is. Is this simply a case that NCM forgot to tell Sean like they forgot to tell him that there would be no MRE2 on their results day, or are they playing games? If the relationship is that good what is going on here? And yes, I have owned for a long time and will hold until production where the real value is and after the games have finished!!
My concern given Putin's actions today is that any transaction will, at the very least, be put on hold. There will be legal clauses which potentially could be invoked if a buyer had concerns about the severity of sanctions or the export of PM's to the West or sanctions on Banks or by blocking access by Russians to the SWIFT system. Until we know more about the severity of further sanctions we are at the mercy of the politicians as ever. Even if the buyers are Russian they may not be in a position to finance the transaction if the Banking system is unavailable to them. Would a Japanese buyer continue with the deal now? Sadly, we can only wait and see. my decision here was always a high risk investment based on dealing with Russia. i made a wrong call and will have to suck it up. The BOD may regret constant delay here but they will suffer financially more than most.
Let’s be clear that whilst the relationship may be good at a working level ( crucial of course) I sense that it is not so good at the executive level. SD has to be a diplomat at times like this but let’s not kid ourselves about the relationship today. I have been involved in many JV’s and when a CEO of the senior partner makes it clear in public pronouncements that certain key milestones will happen ( MRE2 by end 2021 subsequently delayed to Feb 2022) and then they don’t happen and the junior partner only finds out at the 11th hour, there is a problem in the relationship and a motive for the volte face. This is particularly so when a crucial negotiation is underway! What SD was unable to verbalise tonight was, why they have decided not to produce an update resource estimate until……end of 2022!! He probably doesn’t have an answer which is making him mighty frustrated. At some point SD will have to ( probably wants to) explain to us why we are not in a position to tell the market officially that our resource in now much increased with quantum leading ‘ hopefully’ to an upgrade by the brokers and the market. We need to know what GGP can and cannot say under the terms of the JV although SD may be unable to under the terms of the JV. What SD can control is the response to the 5% negotiation and future JV’s with Newcrest. SD can also impact timings along the way in a way in which Newcrest may find constraining. In a nutshell and trying to make sense of the current situation, there is too much at stake for Newcrest when you peel back the cover to damage value for them in what may be one of the biggest gold/copper finds in a generation for the sake of $100m on the margin. Surely, common business sense suggests that an accommodation will be found and this is simply a staging post along the way.
So, I have been accumulating here steadily over the last year. In the past I have been somewhat sceptical about the degree to which claims of manipulation are in fact accurate. I am no longer sceptical. This afternoon I have been trying to buy in blocks of £10k but have had to break my orders down and my buys have gone through at offer prices between 20.4p and 20.5p. Towards the close I tested the bid and was offered 20.4p to sell up to £5k blocks whilst the ‘real’ bid shown at 20p. And yet within a few minutes of close we see a UT at 19.5p. Now, whilst I appreciate that DMA can allow anyone with access to sell in the final auction at low prices and to effectively ‘take a hit’ , we all know that to do so is for one reason, and one reason only which is to irritate and frustrate private shareholders enough to sell out and to perpetuate a further drop in the price. I know that the regulation on AIM is almost non-existent and therefore I have come to expect this behaviour but it continues to grate somewhat. It seems that it is becoming normalised such is the frequency across a wide range of AIM stocks. Andrew Bailey did nothing during his spell at FCA and I fear for our economic policy now that he is at the BofE. He is out of his depth and reckless comments about employers expecting employees to shown restraint in asking for a pay rise to help tackle inflation is about what I expect from someone who is lacking in these lofty positions. In the meantime we have to shake our heads most evenings whilst the vultures keep picking at the carcass until we receive firm and conclusive news on any of our possible transactions which puts an end to this daily charade. Over time I will reduce my investment in this casino which is AIM as the playing field these days has more levels than a multi-storey car park. All IMO.
I suspect that Shaun has been told by institutional investors to strengthen the team around him if he wants their support. He is a smart operator and will know that to develop the business in a multi-faceted way he needs credibility to challenge Newcrest when sitting across the table as Haverion progresses into production. CB may or may not sell some of his holding but it will be transparent through Bloomberg vein if the company does not require to announce as he is no longer a director. This is becoming bigger than most expected but expect some nervous nellies or those with an agenda to create doubt.
The private placing by Chairman and family @ 138p has put the brakes on here. This company flies under the radar, has modest PR so remains undervalued. The CEO and FD really should work more actively with their broker to enhance the company’s profile in the investment community. I suspect that free float is also fairly small. Lots to like here so a case of staying patient and holding until true value is reflected.
As predicted by ST, a terrific set of interims and outlook for f/y ended 31/05/21. Lower debt, very strong land bank and concept of village housing which has appeal for those who want more space influenced by the pandemic. Under the radar stock with controlling block held by Chairman so difficult to acquire without his acquiescence. Hoping for a good lift today.
Onassis- for the avoidance of doubt, when a company is in an offer period, Takeover Panel rules mean that those holders with more than 1% must announce a change in holdings via a Form8.3 disclosure. Also, BR will be making almost daily adjustments to the hundreds of funds which they operate so I would not read anything into these changes. Just want to ensure that others here understand this, and yes I have a holding here and I am waiting patiently for an announcement of some form of corporate action be it a JV, earn in of sorts or full bid as this has been running far too long IMO as evidenced by the volatility in the share price.
I agree that debt can be issue but with ultra low interest rates expected to persist for some years this is a cheap way to achieve rapid growth. The reduction in borrowings seen over the last year was notable and the interims will give us an update on current position as we come out of lockdown and people start to get on with their lives again. Properties in ‘village’ communities at affordable prices are likely to be attractive for the foreseeable future. With Sandy Adams having such a large holding directly and indirectly and the company having a relatively low profile I would like to know how senior management intend to enhance the company’s profile in the investment community. IC’s piece was perfect but momentum needs to be maintained IMO and I will seek to understand how they can do so when the interims come out. Hopefully the results will do most of the talking.
I have been following Simon’s analysis for at least a decade and often buy his recommendations which have done very well indeed. For example, I have held SAN Leon energy ( SLE) for a few years and made a terrific return with much more to come as this stock is also included in his 2021 portfolio. Re SPR, this is very much below the radar but the most exciting comment by ST for me is that the land bank of 16,000 plots is held on the balance sheet with a modest value of £174m so a little over £10k per plot with half already having planning consent. The interims due this month will give a hint to what we may start to see here in terms of future growth. If I was one of the national builders I would be looking closely at Springfield. If the market does not fill the valuation gap here someone else will IMHO.
Savvy6 - thanks for your reply. I am sure you were probing for information using experience to attempt to understand fully whether there is any real cause for concern here. There may or may not be real problems, we can only postulate as we do not have the facts. A friend of mine was invested here and he asked me to look at it for him. I have a fair bit of experience. I do not hold, I have no axe to grind, I have no short position. I read the listing prospectus, I tried to follow the various share transactions to understand who is actually controlling this company with a large block owned by AZ and I suspect close associates. I tried to establish the current cash position to see if I could anticipate a placing, I tried to establish if fees would now be coming in from the new clients to provide working capital. I could go on. Long story short I spent a few hours and I could not obtain answers to these questions to my satisfaction or even close to it so I explained my findings to my friend. He sold out earlier this week. This may come out of suspension with a statement from AZ clarifying a number of these questions and the price may fly. Or, the unaudited accounts may be very poor ( that’s virtually a given) and there will be no answers at this stage. Either way, I hope shareholders are given sufficient clarify and transparency from AZ such that they can make an informed decision as to whether they stay in or exit. I like the concept of financing stock this way as it is somewhat unique but a huge premium is being placed on the company because of this. Will it be able to fund itself, without constant dilution, before it can generate sufficient cash is an important question. Good luck whatever happens.
Savvy6 - did you expect AZ to say that ‘ they were worried that the accounts would expose the fact that there has been almost revenue since listing so a change in the dates would help present the accounts in a better light. Did you expect him to say that the market cap does not reflect reality and that when they do present the accounts there will be more questions than answers. However some may try to dress this up I am struggling to see shareholders would be anything other than concerned at this. The authorities probably told them to suspend in no uncertain terms. All they will release is unaudited figures. What is the current cash position and I want to know if the company is solvent. Is that too much to ask? So, I am not comforted by AZ’s alleged response, all IMHO.
I just thought I would come on here and say that this is the worst board on LSE. I have a lot of Money invested and I am very happy to be a shareholder. It is full of spivs and pikeys. BOO is an outstanding growth story with over £300m cash in the Bank, an increasing portfolio of terrific brands many of which they have bought for next to nothing. They are making an impact in US and overseas. Yes, they are in the news for poor management practices ( short finds and journalists working together IMO) and have paid the price in the short term. The beer and curry spivs are attracted to this share like bees round a honeypot. I spend 30 seconds on here each day, no more, as the quality of posts save for a few exceptions is pathetic. I will leave you spivs to it. Remember to close out your £1 a point spreadbet at 8am otherwise you won’t be able to afford your takeaway tomorrow evening. That’s all, now back to civilization.......
Been here since 2018 and like others very happy with my position. It is almost impossible to establish what will happen next week. There has been talk of GGP potentially joining the large ETF’s for some time and indeed GH mentioned it weeks ago. So, in the last week total volume has been circa 300m and let’s add say another 300m for the weeks since those who trade the speculative ins/outs from ETF’s have been doing so. Those professionals may have bought 50m, 100m or more to sell next week to those PI’s about to jump in which may simply result in net/net a small increase or drop. Of course, with the terrific drilling update this week, excitement around Scally and other brokers updates coming from, say, US brokers who see us in GDXJ and decide to cover, this may create a wave of pressure than absorbs the adverse effect of any front running. Just my musings as it seems that every quarter this happens there is often a much more muted reaction to the share price than some expect. I would like to see a continued steady upward move as we continue to prove up attractive targets and start to publish the initial JORC figures.