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Zak - is this a statement of known fact or a total guess? If the former you are an insider and should not be making others insiders, if the latter you are just as clueless as everyone else the difference being that others don’t posts opinion as facts. Best to ignore you I think.
Outlook is what will get noticed today IMO as the f/y was already out there, with performance ytd looking very positive indeed. Revenue up 30% y/y up to 12th April. Management will be negotiating with prospective buyers over 2024 and 2025 numbers and any price agreed will be based on how likely these forecasts can be delivered.
Dumped the rest of my holding today. The presentation on Wednesday was embarrassing. It seems evident watching that Barder and Hildreth are both out of their depth, and whilst I was prepared to accept the management shortcomings given that we received FDA approval, I have serious reservations about the commercial deal that has been struck. Gross profit of 57% doesn’t mean anything without knowing what the commercial deals will deliver to the bottom line. The Haleon team would have driven a very hard bargain and our less than impressive duo would IMO have struggled in negotiations when sitting across the table with Haleon negotiators. It could take 18 months from announcing the Haleon deal last June, to launching. Let that sink in. Sure, the launch may come sooner but we seem to be entirely at the mercy of our distributors who are clearly calling the shots and all Barder does is to hide behind NDA’s. I remain a bit surprised that LO have not put more pressure on them to strengthen the management team. Sadly I think this will disappoint and even after launch in US it will take an age to get any meaningful data.
Well, our out of depth ‘lite’ management team never fails to disappoint. We have a media shy CEO and a CFO who is not a qualified accountant so this was always going to be a high risk play. Great product, poor execution. My fear is that our weak CFO has given too much away on the margins but it is impossible to tell as we receive little or no financial data with which to calculate. Despite urging Barder to strengthen the team we bring in a NED who works one day a week. Who would sign a commercial deal for US in June 2023 and allow it to drift for so long leaving the uncertainty to hang over the share price? Again, inexperience has caught them out. I will say it again, we need commercially savvy, proven commercial executives with experience of FMCG. IMO Barder does not have the courage to bring others in who will make him and CFO weak. So much potential but the market can see the weakness. I sold half of my holding months ago when I did not receive satisfactory answers from Barder. See you next year!
Having studied the daily trades over the last couple of weeks it seems to me that someone ( potential acquirer ?) has been/is using a VWAP ALGO to acquire as much as they can under the radar hence we are steadily drifting up. Has anyone else noticed this? My evidence would be at the higher vol parts of the day so, on open, 11am, 2pm and close we have a buyer steadily acquiring stock at mid. Hopefully this will continue and increase the closer we get to the results and the latest offer period backstop date.
As is often the case on here I think people are getting ahead of themselves and are so ‘desperate ‘for news ( understandable up to a point given the last couple of years) that they are setting themselves up for disappointment. As some have said, Shaun is en route back from US and I expect that he will say little more than he said on Sunday Roast. Perhaps there will be something to be gained from body language at the TH but we know he should be excited at the opportunity which faces him but IMO we should think months rather than days or weeks for material news. Not long ago Shaun stated that he expected NEM to stick with their 70% stake so I think he was as surprised as the rest of us and only found out when the NEM announcement was made. Just perhaps he received a heads up before the market opened in AUS out of courtesy but large corporates don’t have time nor the inclination to tell all partners ahead of the market of their strategic intent. Yes the future is exciting but it remains uncertain until such time as we know whether we are successful in exercising our final right of refusal and at what cost. I have my feet firmly planted on the ground albeit that I continue to believe that we have a better chance than most small explorers to make the move to mid-cap producer.
Well the shorters will have a field day here until we issue an announcement. I have recently asked Shaun what has happened to Chris Toon and why no RNS and still waiting for a reply. There is a great opportunity here and I fully agree with others here that our rock star board have now to step up to the plate. Over to you guys.
Jackbal - you are correct in your assumption that it would have been a frustrating and somewhat pointless exercise for you to watch more hot air from within Billy Smarts Circus. I did, as I wanted my daughter ( currently doing an MBA) to watch with me and to understand what should go down as an unfortunate case study of how not to do it! Our GEO ( not a CEO in my book) Brad likes to pontificate at length about what they are ‘hoping for’ and ‘expecting to’ do whilst at the end of every sentence he provides a disclaimer or cautionary note as to why this may not be possible, to cover his backside. As for going to a conference with a ‘goody bag’ as justification for raising diddly squat at a large discount along with cheap warrants, well that leaves me convinced that they take us PI’s all for mugs and will happily keep doing what they are doing as we can’t stop them ( this is the thing that really gets me as they know they would have been booted out if we could vote). Why don’t you sell out I hear some wags say? Don’t worry as soon as this tortuous Anza situation is resolved one way or another and the price spikes, as it will bit probably not by that much as we have no credibility any more, I will gladly exit and save you all from my ramblings about this most dreadful management team.
A placing @ 24% discount and warrants at 4.4p is exactly what I expect from an extremely weak management team to raise a measly £500k. As folks will know the dynamic duo will burn through this quicker than you can say ‘ out of their depth’. All those who have been buying these past few weeks in anticipation of an announcement of a new JV may reflect upon the fact that we have a couple of clowns running the show here who create 3 vanity projects to keep themselves busy then run of cash requiring a raise a rock bottom. Well done they deserve some cheap options as a reward for ongoing failure.
We have an increasingly active Algo which was responsible for the sharp jump yesterday and the sharp drop today. I wonder who is behind this. Certainly shows increasing interest in this stock with a lot of news in the pipeline.
81Lucky - you are of course correct in what you say. An ex-US President once said that there were few things more important in life than good communication. In my own experience the best CEO’s are often also the best communicators. Some wags will say that small shareholders should not expect a running commentary on the business and of course we should not, however it is crucial to engage your shareholders and to inform them of relevant developments which will build loyalty, trust and belief. Hopefully our new IR will ensure that we raise our game as this will IMO also help to raise our share price as we have a terrific story to tell and should not be bashful.
Arturo - I invest in companies which have potential and I am active as much as I can be in highlighting what I consider to be weaknesses. I have been around the block a few times and engaged with many talented people along the way. I believe in shareholder democracy. Don’t fall into the trap of assuming that all management teams know what they are doing all of the time - some do and are very capable ( Shaun Day of Greatland Gold) others have a less rounded skill set and need help. Private shareholders can and should highlight weaknesses and it is for the company to decide if they act. Perhaps you have a less participative approach to investing but each to their own. By the way I worked in 2 FTSE-30 companies along the way so thanks for asking. Do you invest in other companies or is just FUM ?
Yes I think that is possible Ahananda. I have written twice to Barder about upping their game re Investor relations and people may have caught Barder in the short piece today saying that they have also just appointed a new IR firm which I was pleased to hear.
Oakhurst1 - no you are wrong. Having spent 2 years in a previous life working at The Takeover Panel I know the Blue book. You are mixing up a whitewash transaction of a private company in Administration with a potential offeror of a listed company. If he buys through 30% he will be compelled to make a Rule 9 offer period.
Interesting theory PDS. One thing that I am certain about is that MA will not be allowed to creep through 30%. He is a modern day corporate raider and the Takeover Panel will be acutely aware that he is building a large stake here and he will not receive a waiver, so 29.99% is his lot. With Frasers he bought the business ( unlisted) from the Administrator so his ability to take control was in very different circumstances.
What interests me here is that the shorts are keeping the share price pegged down which is suiting MA to acquire easily at a very attractive price however it is unlikely that both Ashley and the short hedge funds can both win ( accepting that the hedge funds are well in the money) but will have banked these gains. Is Ashley believing that BOO may struggle to survive and may follow the same fate as Frasers? In those circumstances one could potentially see a similar outcome with less scrutiny from the Takeover Panel but if BOO manages to survive this challenging period and the share price recovers, he will have recovered some of his losses on Debenhams so he has value opportunities in both scenarios. Indeed there are parallels with ASOS where his downside is somewhat protected. Very shrewd and opportunistic but my personal preference as a shareholder here is to see BOO recover and the shorts run for hills as I would much rather see UK listed companies prosper ( we are having a very hard time in all sectors atm) as opposed to a Chinese company taking control of our fast-fashion marketplace.
I for one hope that Barder does not get seduced into selling at this early point in the company's development. If Haleon are interested they will be keen to buy before the business ramps up in Europe, US, South America and Middle East. There is insufficient sales data to assess fair value yet which would suit an offeror.. Lombard Odier will be the ones who will decide if the value is attractive as they will give the nod along with irrevocable undertakings that they would be happy with the offer price. At that point the BOD would then recommend to all shareholders. So, as I have said before LO hold the cards and will protect us small fry shareholders from a cheap shot.
At last we have some useful information upon which to assess the potential here. By far the most important line is that Eroxon has captured an initial market share in Uk/ Europe of 20% which is astonishing. I was expecting less than 10%. Now, there will always be an initial spike whilst those customers who have been using other products try out Eroxon. The crucial point is whether they will switch after using it once or twice. It will take time for this to wash through so more granular data across the year will inform us more.
The global size of the ED market is circa $3bn but importantly it is growing at a CAGR of 8.5% which is fast and makes room for new entrants without the margins collapsing due to intense competition so hopefully keeping margins at a decent level. Our GP margin of 58% looks good but not enough information on the commercials deals and operating costs to extrapolate although the full $4m for Haleon is recognised in 2024 which should make it a profitable year rather than simply break-even which we were told at the interims last year aka ‘ Gerald Ratner moment’.
It has been 6 months since Haleon were announced as leading the US launch and distribution so no doubt that they have been estimating how much stock may be required to ramp up ahead of a formal launch based on initial sales data from UK/Europe. Perhaps a soft launch in certain US states initially.
Decent reaction today but a long way to go before the markets wakes up to potential. Just need to hire some big hitters to make sure we don’t allow this opportunity to get away from us as we are now in the big league which requires the right people to optimise the potential.
If we had an active and dynamic management team they would be all over these sort of issues or at least they would be directing their distribution partners accordingly. Now perhaps behind the scenes they are, but with almost no communication from them and all interaction with a third party PR we are treated as mushrooms. If I had more confidence in their abilities I would be wondering if they were working on some sort of corporate action given the radio silence but my instinct tells me that they don’t have the requisite experience to operate at this level to monetise the product. I hope I am wrong and time will tell.
I have said a number of times until I am blue in the face, we have a media shy management team who I feel are out of their depth especially the CFO. Our new NED is just that a non-executive Director who will attend 12 Board meetings a year and will have the odd interaction with Barder and our CFO. Yes we have a management-lite model so we outsource PR but you get what you pay for as anyone who has been in a competitive commercial role knows.
We sit and wait for morsels to be tossed in our direction. I can only assume that Lombard Odier have access to more information than us lowly PI’s, although this is illegal if it is deemed price sensitive and not shared with ALL shareholders and is acted upon! I can only assume it is not price sensitive and not acted upon!!! I do know from experience that large shareholders calls are always answered by the CEO and much more details is provided - the way things have always been I’m afraid. Sitting with my much reduced investment until such time as I see an injection of talent into FUM and that will encourage me to invest more.