Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Spent the last month selling small blocks every other day and 90% of my holding after the latest delay to this proposed transaction. I am holding only a small chunk just in case miracles do happen. Some will say that this is Nigeria, Africa and therefore you should expect this. I would say that the Board also know this and therefore have set deadlines time and time again with that same knowledge, yet failed to deliver. The same people will say that this is highly complex set of inter-dependent transactions in difficult economic times, yet there comes a time to cut and run when it doesn’t feel right and this is mine. I appreciate that OF has skin in the game but he has underestimated the difficulties here once again. I dread to think what would happen if this transaction does not proceed as I wonder if we will ever receive full repayment from our loan to MIdwestern. I appreciate that in time, I may regret this but I sense that even if the deal can be finalised at some point there will sufficient obfuscation ( there always is with OF) that I will have some time to decide whether I should jump back in and benefit from what was proposed in the RTO as sufficient upside which I have never doubted. Sadly I doubt the ability of the actors involved to get this done. Just as well that Toscafund own such a large % here otherwise we would be a lot lower than we are today. Remember that wag Bluerill who would always post something cynical followed immediately by our board sheriff Alaric, well he disappeared some time ago when we were on the 40’s and I imagine that he is relieved that he did.
Absolutely no need or expectation from most that SD says anything at all. In fact, if he did he could make himself look a little stupid if, in a day or 2 the NCM Board issued a statement to say that ‘ the offer is opportunistic and significantly undervalues NCM blah blah ‘. Best tactic is to work on scenario planning until the smoke clears and then respond if there is anything to respond to. He knows what the JV agreement says about change of control and I expect that any successful bidder would simply assume the position that NCM are in with a 70% holding in Havieron and a 51% stake in Juri JV. I sincerely hope that there is a competitive bid situation here forcing NCM to properly value Havieron. So many permutations here.
I was a long a few years ago but felt that AH was not the calibre of CEO who would deliver shareholder value. He refused to talk to AA at that time which I felt was a mistake. I was always very nervous about the overhang of the LOG administrator and LO’s holding knowing that they would sell into every tactical rise. LO stopped selling a couple of weeks ago after the early Jan bombshell but I believe moved another big block today with the latest bad news so expect another TR-1 later this week.. I agree that the LOG administrator will be feeling the heat now as he trusted in management as many PI’s did and many are staring at big losses by selling out at current levels. No good news expected for a few months at the very least so those buying at 5p as a punt may have to wait for their 20% IMO. Sad state of affairs. Yes O and G exploration and production is a tough gig but some management teams make it a lot harder than it should be.
Growing shareholder value is the primary purpose of the BOD of any public company. There will be those who will say otherwise but that is an undisputed fact. CEO’s are judged on their record of doing so. SD regularly quotes the growth of shareholder value at Northern Star whilst he was CFO there so he knows better than most how important it is.
He is not in control of the Hav JV and I sense that frustrates him privately especially so, as we have not yet identified a new ore body in any of our 100% owned tenements although the prospects are good. His reluctant acceptance of having to wait longer for NCM’s updated MRE says it all. Perhaps he should have acknowledged as much that he has changed his tune here in the media yesterday rather than slip it into a conversation but it is what it is. He needs to up the ante on drilling these 100% tenements IMO to take back control of the narrative. Permits and approvals unfortunately take time. Issuing large chunks of new equity at our current level was a necessary evil but has understandably anchored our share price. We have yet to see any benefit from the new investors not forgetting the dream team but without these decisions I think most would agree our share price would probably be lower than it is today.
Drill results at Havieron are largely ignored as everyone knows. IMO, the market is acutely aware that NCM call the shots on Hav and that we must dance to their tune hence the pull back again despite all of the positives. I am as frustrated as anyone on here to watch relatively small volume control our share price but consol myself with the hope that in 2024 the narrative on Hav will be very different and will focus on ore extraction and revenue generation. In the meantime we could really do with some positive drilling results later this year along with the ASX listing to uplift the PI base which is clearly quite flat. SD has been slow in recognising how AIM actually works IMO and the sooner we have an ASX listing the better for all for the reasons he articulated yesterday.
So for me, SD has to use the funds raised and the dream team as intended (who are highly incented) to start to drive shareholder value after all, that is why he is where he is and we are all invested in GGP. He will be judged on this in the fullness of time and I will give him a couple of years from now to deliver for shareholders regardless of the day to day negativity.
Shenners old chap. You do understand that there are hundreds if not thousands of private investors who will trade with pots of £100k -£200k or more or perhaps you don’t understand that. So, it follows therefore that it is pretty easy for private investors to buy a few million £’s worth of stock on a severe drop looking for a bounce. Lombard Odier are very aggressive and knowledgable and they will have decided on the dire news to take some money of the table in case this goes from bad to worse. So, they have sold to speculators yesterday IMO and I would be very surprised to see a TR-1 with an existing or new fund buying with so much uncertainty. So, I predicted that we may see a further drop of between 3 and 5% today which is looking likely. I will probably avoid IOG even if it drops to 5p as I think that management are struggling big time here and the elephant in the room which will always haunt IOG is that LO and/or the Administrator IMO are likely to offload more without crashing the price if they do not hear good news any time soon. Time will tell how this will play out.
As expected either the Administrator or LO were exiting in a big way yesterday. Some wags are content as someone has been buying the shares they have been offloading! Well yes the traders were buying these hoping for a bounce and LO knew that they would. My prediction is that these same traders will realise that the bounce will not happen and some will exit tomorrow dropping the price another 3-5% and if we see another TR-1 next week we will continue to see further drops until we settle at a lower price, perhaps 5-6p. I believe it may settle there until we hear more from the management team. Sad state of affairs but if you invest in management rather than pure technicals you will be hard pressed to punt more here IMO. I will watch and see what transpires but respect is hard earned but easily lost.
Yet another desperate failure of honest utd comms from an inexperienced management team. I have been in and out for years and sold 18 months ago thinking that AH was out of his depth. RN took over recently and instead of exercising extreme caution until he truly knew the outcome of these latest results he tried to create the impression that first gas was just around the corner and all will be fine. This brought in new traders on his appointment expecting that the new CEO really had the Midas touch and know much more that AH knew. Reality is that RN is no better informed and has even less experience in running a plc. Sadly we see this a lot in oil and gas and commodities where geologists think they can run a public company whereas most fail and should stick to their specialism. Managing investor relations and building the confidence of investors is more complex than geologists realise and it is where they usually fail. I suspect that there has been misleading public statements but they are almost never followed up by regulators. IMO a lot of traders will have bought in today for their 10% and are talking this up without having much of a clue but will bail tomorrow or before the weekend. This is very high risk play now and it will take a lot to settle the nerves. And of course the elephant in the room is that the Administrator et all will start to salvage what they can on any rise. Sad but typical of these small O&G plays. And yes, I felt that RRE would have been a better manager of the assets but Hockey thought he knew better.
Perhaps he can see that there is no deal likely any time soon (he would know) , there is no end to the war in the near term and that the prospects at EUA are not looking too bright. In his shoes I would probably look for other opportunities after a tough year. I feel that many here are clinging onto false hope. I sold at a heavy loss last year like so many others and have accepted the loss. It was a high risk play and no-one expected the war. I do think we were in negotiations but any bidders would have walked last Feb when Putin invaded Ukraine yet the BOD have kept the carrot dangling. With the market starting to look a little less depressing, commodities looking brighter and inflation seemingly peaked, perhaps it is time to look to recover some of the loss elsewhere. I know it is tough to do but hanging around waiting for a miracle to happen is not alway good for the mental health. So many of the FTSE small caps are undervalued it is possible to recover losses elsewhere if you enough capital and a short memory.
I would also be keen to read the agreement if it is publicly available. The 19.9% figure is due to the Canadian jurisdiction ( UK takeover code 29.9%) which is the max holding before a mandatory offer needs to be made. If the September 2023 stand still figure is in the 2018 agreement and must remain in the new JV agreement then I would hope that Brad and our Chairman are able to protect us all and force MM’s hand. In other words if they try to string us along for months, I would suggest that the JV should be shelved and we look for other partners. I am sure there will be some miners already in Colombia who may like to partner with us despite the current challenges. We are priced for worst case which is that we allow MM to do nothing or say nothing for months and we simply wither on the vine. Our BOD must be acutely aware that this must not be allowed to happen or we all lose.
Yes and as we all know, this is what happens when you fail to deliver time and time again. Options are to sell now believing that this deal won’t happen and preserve capital or to stay invested in the vain hope that OF can get this over the line at some point next year without being sued by creditors. Some retail investors have had clearly enough but the drop, as always, is much harder than you would expect given the relatively modest volume we have seen today. Bottom line is that there are almost no buyers out there - why would you? Perhaps Toscafund will lend the company a few million bucks if they are confident that the deal will be done!
The positive here is that the Board are keeping shareholders updated, despite delays on all fronts. The negative is that this is clearly squeezing cash flow in a major way,. It does seem that by switching financing provider to use another source which we now learn may invest in SLE has piled on even more pressure but one can only assume this will be worthwhile. I do hope this will be all be worth the wait in the end but wonder if we will have any small shareholders left by the time these transactions eventually conclude.
Having invested in JLP in 2018 I sold out in 2020 as I lost faith in Colin Bird as a result of his behaviour with other companies although I did think that Leon was a promising new CEO. I kept JLP on my watchlist and read all the RNS’s and with Bird out of the way I was keen to reinvest. The warrants are always a sore point but small AIM companies sadly have little choice but to offer as sweeteners when raising cash when they are not generating much revenue.
So, a good update today and more historic warrants out of the way. They could have been forward sold for all we know or the warrant holder may decide to hang onto some of all. Regardless, like so many in the sector there are better times ahead. With management changes at the top team and an endless stock of tailings to process at Sabre the future looks promising. The market will eventually catch up if not in 2023 when global economic conditions become more favourable. I have bought some today and will continue over the coming months and look forward to seeing the company develop.
Dip666’s post @ 8.21am has nailed it as far as I am concerned. Our SD is showing great promise with an acute strategic mind, deep awareness of shareholder engagement and a sharp financial brain making him an ideal CEO for GGP at this stage in our development. The NCM BOD will be looking at CEO’s of other miners who have a proven track record of creating shareholder value over multi-asset, multi-jurisdictions. Perhaps a CFO from a major who has proved themselves over a number of years and is ready to step up. IMO our SD has a few years here to deliver on his 3 pillars and to create shareholder value as a CEO before he would be considered worthy as a candidate. What is much more interesting to me is how a new CEO for NCM will view the opportunity to take over one of the worlds biggest gold miners which has struggled of late relative to peers. His interviews for the position will challenge him for his own vision for NCM should he take over the role. I am also curious if it was their SD, now interim CEO who was the one who pushed for NCM to walk away from the extra 5% option due to ‘ not hitting their internal hurdle rate ‘. Will she wish to align herself more closely with us in the short term or not? Will she wish to shout about Havieron now that SB has gone? Who knows, but I am in the camp that this ‘ early retirement’ makes NCM ripe for a takeover now. Nobody knows how this would impact us of course but there will be Investment Banks and other miners who will be very attracted to NCM’s assets and Havieron in particular as well as our tenements nearby so I expect that 2023 will be full of surprises, hopefully allowing us to see some of the true value we appear to have underground recognised more realistically through our share price.
I understand that Sandy Adams has been a big supporter of the SNP over the years. Perhaps that support will ease going forward as she will always make decisions which help her politically which is why she is so dangerous as a politician who is typically self-serving. Hope we can wave goodbye to her soon. This is a good buy at 75p as it will return to double these levels and beyond when inflation is brought back under control and interest rates follow them down. Housing will continue to be an important sector to attract investment when the current economic problems are behind us. With more people coming into this country than leave year upon year we will always be on the back foot in satisfying demand. Buy and hold for a couple of years as this is the time to cherry pick bargains in my view. Land bank is just too strong to overlook the upside here.
Sadly, I am not in a position to attend this evenings TH meeting. I have sent in a number of questions which Shaun may or may not be able to answer. One thing that slightly puzzles me is his comments at the AGM yesterday showing apparent concern about being taken our cheaply. Whilst I know from my own market experience that there has been prolonged and consistent price suppression whether by shorting or DMA activity there is still a very large retail base here many of whom are well informed and activity engaged on different platforms. This means that an unwelcome offer ( low-ball) will be very difficult to succeed without having commitments from large shareholders many of whom have only recently invested. So, from where I sit any hostile offer would have to be very attractive for retail shareholders to accept with the backing of our Board. Shaun knows the substantial retail base provides some protection along with Wyloo and TriBeca so why should he be concerned? Anyone care to provide any thoughts given the shape of our share register?
I don’t think there will be many on here who would honestly criticise SD for the decisions he has taken over the last year. We don’t know what would have happened if he did not commission his own MRE and NCM bought the 5% option for a song. The share price could have been even lower still. We don’t know a lot of what has been going on behind the scenes and I am not sure that our team are getting along that well with NCM given the stunts that they have pulled. One thing I am sure about however is it that SD is a consummate professional and he would not be publicly critical of SB/NCM whatever he thinks of them in private, as we have to rely upon them greatly and they are partners at Juri as well as Havieron so we have to find a way to work effectively together regardless of their apparent attempts to outfox us. Some will say with a smile, that’s business, others will say it is devious attempt to buy assets on the cheap using underhand tactics and with a JV partner to boot is a non-starter. It is what it is and they failed so we press ahead having sent a strong message to SB.
The introduction of new investors at a low share price coupled with a tough economic backdrop has killed any share price momentum. Unfortunately for those of us who are invested at a higher share price, this is somewhat painful on paper as the optimism which should come with the arrival such a top team of high achievers has not really transpired. SD will be acutely aware of this but should not be surprised as we did not have the luxury of expecting institutions to simply buy in the market and watch the share price rise on the back of volume. Sadly, for most explorers that is not what usually happens.
When I reflect on my investment which is circa 50% down on average buy-in, I console myself by looking at the potential free cash flow from the brokers reports that our 30% of Hav will give us when we get to full production. It is very significant indeed and on industry average multiples our market value should be 3 or 4 times higher than we see today . This ignores, Juri or any successes on our 100% owned assets and ignores new opportunities that our rock star board members may introduce to us. They are here to make a killing evidenced by the incentive packages let there be no doubt about that. They are free agents who could probably pick and choose their next position but they chosen GGP. It is sometimes difficult to see beyond the daily dips and somewhat suspicious late trades which often pull us down again but either you do so, or sell at a loss, in my case a rather big one.
Patience is underrated especially on AIM but when you observe the steps taken over the last year it is difficult to pick fault with SD. Let’s be honest, to date he has not delivered any shareholder value and he is on the hook for that. If we reach the ore body broadly on timescales and start production without any major hiccups I am confident that ceteris paribus we will be rewarded for our patie
Without having the benefit of the exploration agreement to interrogate we are always speculating as to what our options look like. Should Agnico continue to play hard ball I wonder if there is an option to renegotiate solely with Newmont. Is this practical or do we have to rely on Agnico’s boots on the ground? We have not yet handed over effective control to our 2 major partners hence we have some leverage as Brad articulated today. We don’t have the capital resources to drill on our own but perhaps we could we seek out other partners should Agnico prove to be too difficult in negotiations. I suspect that Agnico may be well connected politically so may be a non-starter but our BOD need to step up to the plate otherwise we all lose out in the short term.
Bhargav - you were quite correct to infer that you illicit more information at AGM’s if you are there in person and particularly if you are the only attendee. Management are more guarded on these webinars for obvious reasons as they have no idea who is listening in! The presentation and content this am was unchanged from prior presentations although they did confirm that Agnico are trying to move the goalposts in their own favour of course and I agree with Brad that they must push back. Until this is resolved, the challenge we have, and for the performance of the share price is that in stopping drilling ( and with no timescales on the crystallisation of the Phase 2 JV) and when there is very little to say about any of the other projects, we are in a vacuum and the market always reacts accordingly. Traders will trade and will know that few new investors will climb onboard until this JV is resolved so few buyers mean that the market makers will push us down. Let’s hope that in early 2023 they can announce a positive way forward to bring OMI shareholders something to feel positive about. In the meantime it is time to focus on other companies.
Bhargav, many thanks for attending the AGM and for the feedback. As someone else mentioned this morning, I also live in the far north of Scotland so it is not simply a question for me of jumping on a tube/Uber to attend the meeting which I would certainly do, if possible, just to vent my frustration in person. Something is seriously wrong with company law such that retail shareholders ( outside of Canada or indeed inside of Canada) appear unable to register a bone fide vote against an underperforming director. I emailed the company about this earlier in the week without a reply. Brad must think that everyone is entirely happy with his performance which is probably why he bumbles along as he does. Part of me hopes that that the JV is taking forever to finalise as our management are simply not prepared to accept the terms of the new JV presented in which our minority interest puts us in a very weak position making it difficult to do or indeed communicate anything going forward which does not suit our partners agenda. As many here will know from past experience, majors will often and without compunction, ‘bully’ small explorers into submission without blinking an eye. It often suits them that their junior partners’ market cap remains low and why would they do anything to help us improve it if they can take us out for pocket change in the future? That is why we need a robust agreement in place providing us with full transparency and an ability at the very least to update OMI shareholders regularly and timeously. The disappointing RNS today on the day of the AGM is a little perplexing to me. Why hold onto drilling results, against best practice corporate governance, which were not particularly positive, to release a few hours before an AGM? He should have released these when they were made available but was he only provided with these yesterday along with the decision to pause drilling? Coincidence or planned, I guess that we will never know but this is typical of poor comms which creates doubt and suspicion. Appears as though we now just have to sit and wait for news on the JV and/or the markets to begin to attract money back into risk assets. Glad to see the end of 2022…….
Yes the market is punishing OMI as there was a lot of hope for this set of drill results such is the paucity of information. Lack of confidence in management doesn’t’t help here as many have said. In the RNS of 9th September our Chairman said ….” MMA has committed to making the Phase 2 payment of USD$2m to the company no later than January 2023.” So, I wonder if ‘committed’ in this context means a signed letter of intent with a date inserted of “no later than say 10h January. If so, we need this to be clarified as the RNS today suggests that the JV could be months away. I suspect that ‘committed’ may have simply been a verbal statement allowing it to be changed at will. Market cap at this level allows us to be acquired for small change which I suspect is what will eventually happen. This is the risk when you have management who are out of their depth.