Member Info for bald_eagle

Never heard the expression 'roofing it' before. I must have led a sheltered life.

Also never seen 'legging it' in terms of shares...apart from "Carillion is about legit as Donald Trump's hairdo"

To ' leg it' usually denotes some wrongdoing and running away from the law after a crime. I do hope TRMR aren't going to 'scarper' after breaking the law!!!

"Hope the Tremor shares keep 'roofing it'."
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What does 'roofing it' mean?

Tricky, a good balanced appraisal of the 'benefits' of mask wearing (face coverings). They ain't perfect but they are better than wearing no face covering...every little helps to reduce the overall risk.
From the little I do know, the primary benefit is not gained by the mask wearer but by 'other' people. If one is infected - asymptomatic obviously - the amount of virus emitted is reduced in your immediate vacinity....NOT to zero....but it is reduced. And every little helps!!!

"Face-masks are a sop to making the public feel “they are doing their bit.” "
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Not true.

"Only 600,000 vaccinations so far!!? "
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I must be dreaming. I'm sure some politician/minister said it was close to a million vaccinated. Sometimes I think the official figure is calculated: "Think of a number, double it, subtract Boris' IQ, add lots of noughts on the end....voila, the official government statistic!!"

Tomorrow for the markets. I'm still on my way back from Switzerland....don't want to be late!!!

"So why the over-reaction?"
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DFL, no over-reating. Just discussion between intelligent people - in the absence of government leadership - into the possible routes out of this health crisis.

The 'problem' is that new variants pose 'unknown' risks....both to the population in general and also the way we are handling the pandemic (whish is based upon how the unmutated virus behaved).

Viruses mutate and we have to be able to adapt our strategy based upon the behaviour of any new strain, rarther than what we saw in the past (& how politicians 'want' it to behave).
IF the new variant(s) have moved the goal posts - in terms of transmissability - then this could quickly ramp up cases & the NHS could get swamped. Yet again it is all about protecting the NHS. Winter is here (GoT!!!). But we have an opportunity with the vaccine(s) to finally get ahead of the virus....but it will require leadership (sadly lacking to date in the governing politicians), huge investment and the ability to adapt quickly to meet demand. Unfortunately we have Politicians in charge who seem 'happy' running the trench warfare of WW1 against the virus.

The Spanish flu (circa 1918) - although a different type of virus - mutated into a far deadlier strain that affected younger people. We have to be prepared if something like that happens.

At the moment the UK variant transmits more easily - schools will be a spreading ground between families - but isn't any more deadly (apparently). There is also an expectation that the vaccines should be effective against it. But a new strain could appear that behaves in a way we cannot cope with as easily (the South African strain is a bit of an unknown).
So we need a mass vaccination in a short time period. Get the economy up & running ready for the spring. Get people out socialising. Even going on holiday 'perhaps'!!

OR we can dither, talk about 'levelling up' & cutting red tape. But people just want to get life back to normal, hug their granny, go for a holiday on the Algarve and have a beer in a pub.....and forget about Brexit once & for all!!!!!

"Since mass-vaccination is not possible there has to be a target demographic."
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With the approval of the Oxford vaccine next week mass vaccination could start first week of January, so it is possible (or it will be possible very shortly).
Assuming Astra Zen have been producing vaccine in the amounts they have promised.

PS Mass vaccination does assume that the English tory government have made suitable preparation & invested sufficient resources....they should have been preparing since March or April. Have they done the prep?....gawd only knows. Based on past performance I'm not confident. But hopefully grown up people in the NHS will have the plans in place and can find the money.

"However, the more it spreads the more it mutates and therefore, as a priority, it should be given to people at high risk of spreading it, assuming they have it?
Do children/students fit into that category? "
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YES....they do fit into that category. BUT as I pointed out myself, they aren't approved to take the current vaccine (because there isn't the safety data).

"Plus the vaccine is currently only for adults over 50."
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Tricky, that isn't correct. The vaccine is approved for anyone over the age of 18 (I believe).

You seem to be mixing up what groups are currently 'prioritised' to receive the vaccine in the UK and what age range the vaccine is approved for by the MRHA. The former can change in a matter of minutes - the relevant goverment advisory panel just need to change their recommendations. The latter is led by the science and the safety data.

Schoolchildren catch the virus and spread it....indeed the new variant is purported to spread more easily in children than the original version. That could be a serious problem....children attending school and spreading the new variant back to their families & to their teachers, who are likely to have a more serious infection, and swamping the NHS.

Big problem with my 'theory' on vaccinating schoolchildren....it cannot be done!!

The vaccine hasn't been tested on pre-18's, so there isn't the safety data.

Would hate to think what would happen if the virus mutated and became more dangerous for children.

So it looks like schools will have to be closed until enough of the population is vaccinated. Not ideal.

"Mass vaccination of the whole population in a matter of days or even a few weeks would certainly be an ideal situation but it’s NOT going to happen. "
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Eddie, not sure I have heard anyone say that 40-50 million people could be vaccinated in a 'matter of days' never mind 'a few weeks'.
But I have heard that Easter is 'doable'....but it would still require huge effort.

I expect the first 10-30 million would be the 'easy' ones....after that it's getting to the hard to reach cases and some persuading of people to have the jab.

But we have to aim big....4 million a week would be my target. Call it a 'moonshot' (glad I thought of that!!)....invest big in the next 10-12 weeks to get the economy opened up, instead of using the money to pay furlough.

If the aim is to do mass vaccination then prioritising in places like hospitals becomes less of an issue (similarly schools).....just vaccinate en masse in as short a time period as possible. This does assume that there are plenty of vaccine doses available, which should hopefully be the case once the Oxford vaccine is approved.

Everytime a person is vaccinated that means one less pathway for the virus to spread...it is a numbers game. We are currently rationing of the vaccine because we don't have enough supply, hopefully very soon we will have enough supply to switch to mass vaccination. That is assuming they have trained enough people to administer the jabs....ooops!!! (Boris isn't a detail man, I forgot!!!)

"ALL medical staff first where they are at high risk since they are not all equally on the front-line."
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Sorry, you've lost me again.

TRicky, you've got it wrong again. I'm glad to see the back of Corbyn. Not my 'cup of tea' at all. Keir is far more 'sensible' and seems to be ahead of the curve on most things. But I guess being in front of this Tory shambles of a government isn't difficult.....Keir just needs to point out the bleeding obvious - things most UK people already know - and hopes that Boris cactches up given enough time!!
Unfortunately we need strong leadership.....not playing catch up all the time.

Eddie, I expect the NHS are prioritised for vaccination. I'm not sure NHS staff would see it as a 'thank you'.....just common sense. We need NHS staff to have immunity from the vaccine, so they aren't off sick and/or self-isolating. They are also more likely to be exposed to high viral loads - especially ICU staff, so their risk profile from the virus would automatically place them in an 'at risk' category.
NHS staff are also 'relatively' easy to vaccinate. They are 'motivated' to get the jab and they tend to work in or near places with access to the current vaccine (super cold storage).
English tory government needs to be far more ambitious about delivering mass vaccinations IMO.

But I see in the paper Boris is instead talking about levelling up & cutting red tape!!

Tricky, at least you aren't talking about unknown knowns!!!

"Seems i have the wrong board."
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Franksel, reckon so. Treemore, what do they do?!

PS weekend rules apply. We can chat about any old carp at the weekend...and often do!!

"Normal seasonal flu' makes us rather immune from further attacks, but if Covid mutates very rapidly it may attack again, or is that just media scare-mongering."
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TRicky, I don't understand what you mean by the above....none of it makes sense to me.

The 'hope' is that the Covid-19 vaccine(s) will provide 90% immunity across all age groups....the exact duration of that protection is unknown (as far as I know). Although we have a yearly flu jab and Covid-19 (& variants) may require the same.
There is also some expectation that the current vaccine (Pfizer) will protect against the 'London' mutation (not sure if that applies to the south african variant).
I am hoping that this years Flu season will be mild....our self-isolation & lockdowns may lessen flu transmission as well. Plus the NHS has been ramping up flu vaccinations this year in anticipation of an over-stretched NHS in winter.
But we really need the Oxford vaccine and we need to give it to as many people as possible, both in the UK & worldwide. Hopefully we can then back to 'normal'...although the new 'normal' may involve masks & social distancing if the virus mutations get ahead of the vaccine science.

"To pinpoint optimum permutations with which the final death toll ( regardless of age) can be kept at the lowest would prove to be a hard practice."
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Yes, I agree. The modelling behind the science must be complicated. But if the models indicate that a different approach is required to tackle this new variant in the short term - until the vaccine is rolled out - then I would expect SAGE to recomment it to politicians and for the government to agree to those 'tweaks'. In 'theory' vaccinating schoolchildren & teachers in large numbers is 'probably' relatively easy, being all in one place (I imagine!!)....although getting paremnt approval would be a hurdle.

What we really desperately need is the Oxford vaccine (in large numbers of doses) and a massive ramping up of the vaccination programme. Throw everything we have at getting >4 million people vaccinate per week.
But unfortunately this weak & ineffective English government will 'probably' waste valuable time congratulating themselves on getting a Brexit deal, when they should now be doing other more important things!!!!....like vaccinating people en masse.

"The issue is that the super spreaders (mostly 30 years and under) are the group least likely to suffer or die from the virus.

So let's stick with the Elderly and clinically vunrable as the priority groups."
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One would have thought so!!
But the new variant of the coronavirus - if it is as contagious as suggested - could cause our approach (at least in the West) to change. To stop super spreading - and to prevent the NHS from being overloaded - it may be sensible to vaccinate some sections of the population earler than expected...and since the politicians want to keep schools open at all cost, it seems sensible to vaccinate schoolchildren and teachers early.