Member Info for bald_eagle

IndoMiner, I reckon you have identified things they need to work on.

Grade has been blamed on inefficient mining techniques which they suggest could be improved by the new equipment which allow for targetted mining of the higher grade ore bodies. We shall see!! But you have identified that grade is low and is an obvious way to increase gold production significantly. I believe that higher grade ore may also improve recovery rates.

I seem to remember that the processing plant was over-engineered (in parts) in preparation for higher volumes (but I might be wrong). I thought the plant was good for 850ktpa but that doesn't factor in maintenance & breakdowns I suppose....something that does seem to reduce throughput at Altyn. Winter processing issues were often an issue....hopefully ancient history!!

MrA, thanks for your thoughts, as ever they are clear and illuminating....even if ultimately the Investor Chronicle article was not in places!

"....is Barclays too exposed to activities caught in the transition?"
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MrA, do you have a grasp of what that means?

To me, it could mean a million things, some contradictory! 'Transition' could be good or bad, positive or negative. I'm not sure if it refers to the structure of BARC's business (e.g. investment banking focussed) or the risks in financing companies that are exposed to any transition that takes place. Not even sure what 'transition' they are referring to.....a post-pandemic transition (e.g. shift to on-line shopping) or the transition to low carbon economies!?

DofM, so be to clear, based on your understanding of your personal conversations with 'both of them', do ALtyn need to raise $6-16m to fund the expansion to 1Mtpa at Sekisovskoye OR do they need $40-50m?

IF they have already raised $34m of the required $40-50m - and that is a big IF - then why not state that they 'only' need an additional $6-16m to reach 1Mtpa capacity. Either they are absolutely rubbish at PR or we have got it wrong (or been misinformed).
Something doesn't make sense.

Hopefully they don't manage to screwup the production update due soon....but nothing would surprise me with this lot of buffoons.
PS I'm quite positive about the prospects for Altyn despite the quality of the management.

"So for clarification...... they are saying thus includes the monies already raised. ? (17+10+7=$34m) and forward budgeted capex of $15m together = approx $50m?"
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That certainly isn't how the latest report reads (or my reading of it). The funding requirements need clarification (IMO).

I read it as they have raised $34m and that is allocated, longer term they need $40-50m to reach 1Mtpa. That doesn't even begin to touch the 1Mtpa plant at Teren-Sai, although I'm sure some initial work will begin fairly soon & that might or might not be included in the $40-50m budget.

As clear as mud!!

Their communication skills are seriously lacking (IMO). Perhaps they need to explain what the money is for rather than just throw about numbers of $40-50m!!

They are taking out multiple loans - increasing debt - but still need over $40m near term. What sort of debt is the company gonna have over next 2-3 years?

One would hope that efficient gold production at over 500ktpa - especially if gold price stays above $1800 - should generate enough profit to help fund this investment and keep debt under control.
The cost of a new 1Mtpa processing plant at Teren-Sai must be BIG!!....what are we talking, $100m plus?!

It was the same under Bob Diamond as it is under Staley, they are investment bankers who are used to getting big bonuses and see nothing 'odd' about handing out big bonuses to investment bankers for mediocre performance....a bit like the adage "pay peanuts get monkeys", although they seem to think if you give a monkey a massive pay packet it will be able to perform brain surgery!!
Just a suggestion, pay people on performance NOT on how you want them to perform. If a football team wins lots of matches it gets a bigger bonus than a team that loses most of theirs.

Long term I'm sure they have plans to build a new processing plant but short term they might decide to truck ore - assuming they have spare capacity. It is far easier & quicker to dig a hole in the ground than it is to build a new processing plant and they will want to process at least some of that ore (stockpiling takes space).

I'm sure they have a plan but IF circumstances change then they will have to adapt that plan. Just because Altyn management have told us something doesn't mean it has actually happened.....'the plan' is more a vision of what they want to achieve (IMO). Whether the end product - especially in terms of timescales - meets that vision is another matter (IMO).

Presumably at some point (TBC) an open pit at Teren-Sai will start to supply ore at quite high tonnage and that (in theory) could be trucked to the current processing plant at Sekisovskoye. So reaching 850KTpa isn't a good target (IMO).

Which is best, lower tonnage at higher grade or increasing tonnage at lower grade?

The company (at least initially) will 'probably' spend lots of money increasing processing capability but supply it with lower grade ore (it is what they have done in the past). But long term I suppose it creates a much larger business, with the ability to expand and takeover smaller operations. I suppose the question is what is best for small investors like us (not the majority ruling family & management).

I think every ALTN investor has become used to slippage.

One thing improves (mined tonnage) and another thing 'slips' (grade)....one step forward, one step back!!
But they seem to be inching forward!!

Dofmeister, thanks for 'finding' the capex table for me. ABove not below!!

It looks like they aren't expecting to raise the additional $40-50m in the next 2 years.

There are lots of questions that need answering (IMO). The latest set of results seems to pose more questions than answers (again IMO).
But IF they can get to 850kTpa over next 12-18 months and IF the grade gets back to 2.0g/tonne (& above) and IF they can keep recovery above 80% (hopefully nearer 85%) and IF gold price stays above $1800/Oz then 'perhaps' things will look clearer !!!
But things seem to be heading in the right direction....although I'm not sure what precise direction that is at the moment.

Under 'capital requirements' section of the results was: "The capex requirements for the next two years are detailed in the table below. "

Is it me - having a bit of a moment - but does that table exist?!

It is difficult to know at what point we have reached in 'the plan'. Timescales are always shifting (being delayed).
It was 'interesting' that they plan to sustain production at 850kTpa for 3 years...THEN ramping up to 2MTpa over 6 years. If that is correct then that's a 9 year timeframe and NOT the 6 years from previous plans.

"The long term plan still consists in operating the Sekisovskoye Mine at 850kt annual capacity for three years then ramping up production to 2Mtpa over a six year period"

RB, so you believe (& hope) that the $40-50m mentioned in the latest report is a mistake....it is the sum required to take processing capability to 2Mtpa NOT 1Mtpa?

It wouldn't surprise me because it did seem an absurd amount for 'only' 150,000Tonnes of extra capacity AND the management sometimes seem to be smoking something stronger than cigarettes. But they do need to correct their mistake (if it is a mistake) because it could put off potential investors.

Has Credit Suisse got any more skeletons in the cupboard?
It seems they were left holding the baby for Archegos ($4.7bn). Plus there was Greensill. Any more!!

"Antonio Horta-Osorio, voted into the job by Credit Suisse shareholders Friday, said the bank’s current and potential risks “need to be a matter of immediate and close scrutiny,” after losing $5.5bn from the implosion of hedge fund Archegos and entangling itself with the now-insolvent finance firm Greensill."

A new boss has every incentive to expose all the dodgy dealings of the previous management and start with a clean slate.

I would have guessed Rotterdam.....or Hull?!?

"But they don’t necessarily have to be a disaster. Barclays’s purchase of the remnants of Lehman Brothers after the last crash was a huge success, making the bank a significant player on Wall Street for the first time."
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Mr A, you seem a savvy person but I'm not sure I agree about the 'huge success' of Lehmans Brothers. AT the time I thought the purchase would propel BARC into a different league, but it never really happened (that I can see). Indeed they had to sell most of their African assets to concentrate in investment banking. Arguably a bad decision, AFrica being a high growth market in the future)....it was a shame they couldn't keep both.

DofM, I quite agree with you. Grade is what could hold back the SP and future investment.

The $40-50m for 'only' 150,000 tonnes extra capacity does seem a little steep.

The plan to add another 1 million tonnes capacity (taking it to 2m tonnes per annum) must be eye watering.....but presumably the company - if it ever reaches that point - will be in a different league by then, almost Premiership!!...OK, Championship.

Nope. Almaty is GMT+6.
Therefore 4:20pm would be 10:20pm.....perhaps they work late over there?!
As an investor I am annoyed...especially when they write that they want to increase the profile of the company with potential investors. Bizarre.
By hiding what look like a decent set of results!!