Member Info for bald_eagle

"It does, the only quite surprising thing are the production targets for the next three years, which barely move from current production - 26koz this year, 28koz 2022, 29k0z 2023"
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It would seem that the 'independent' research is being conservative & probably realistic (based on Altyn's past performance).
It would suggest (to me) that they expect production levels for the next 3 years to remain at or near 500,000 tonnes per year, with grades at or near 1.8g/t and recovery rates at or near 80%. Realistic and conservative IMO.
That gives the management the opportunity to over-deliver...something so far they have never managed to do, probably because they have over-promised.
Market seems to be waiting too. Probably for consistent results and a realistic roadmap.

"With India seemingly overwhelmed and now the Philippines where will UK P&O and others get their crew?"
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Isn't the answer 'testing, testing, testing'?
The issue isn't necessarily where the staff come from but how you manage them. An infected crew member can come from the EU (or the UK even) & they might even have the 'Indian' variant. So presumably the solution is to prevent them getting onto the ship via 'testing, testing, testing' probably with quarantine on-shore somewhere before they get aboard.
Companies like CCL should have been developing protocols - hopefully in liaison with government agencies - on how to handle staff post-lockdown.....because the virus could be with us for many years to come in one form or another.
For CCL & other such companies to NOT have a potential solution to staffing would be gross mis-management IMO.

"...under the agreement for sponsored research has produced and initiated independent research on AltynGold."
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'Sponsored independent' research....hmmmmm, an interesting concept!

"Any rise in interest rates will finish the housing market"
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I'm not sure about 'any rise'. I reckon the housing market would NOT be severely impacted by a small rise. Indeed if a small rise were to 'finish' the housing market it would suggest to me that the housing market was little more than a ponzi scheme, built on unsustainable foundations....banks no longer provide reckless lending like in the past when the housing market was definitely unstable.

Perhaps when you say 'finish' you mean the end of the current rapid house price inflation....perhaps that would be signs of a normal market reacting when prices get a little over-inflated.

Stamp duty holiday will also eventully end, estate agents have been predicting the end of the world when that happens....for their bonuses perhaps!!

"It is not RDS' responsibility to impose a timeline for change but, if it is smart, it will adapt positively to the changing needs and demands of energy consumers - for that is where the responsibility for climate change lays."
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All good stuff. Serous grown up debate is often lacking IMO.

I'm not sure 'responsibility' is the correct word in terms of consumers being 'responsible' for climate change.
I agree that consumers - through their consumption patterns & demands on 'big business' -
have to be a major part of 'fixing' our addiction to fossil fuels but equally governments & 'big business' have been slow in providing alternatives....possibly because certain players have been 'comfortable' with the status quo and have been resisting change (turkeys voting for Christmas)....but it seems that public & government opinion has 'apparently' finally agreed that Christmas is necessary and meat free alternatives to turkey will be on the menu!!

Baysil, I'm not sure the prospect of a rise in interest rates due to rising inflation is 'necessarily' a 'win, win' scenario for banks. It would be good to read or hear something from an economist (but I haven't).
With UK government debt at record post-war levels (& rising) I expect Rishi is less trhan happy at the prospect of an increase in world wide interest rates....seems to me that politicians have factored in ever-lasting cheap UK government to be the solution to all their problems e.g. climate change, social care, pandemic recovery, levelling up/down.

Big tax rises coming IMO. We have to balance the books at some point and if the cost of servicing UK debt increases that may be sooner than expected (IMO).

PS Is it my imagination but have economists been 'out of fashion' since the Brexit debacle ended....or perhaps epidemiologists are just the new celebrity scientists!!

The movement of senior staff to the EU is possibly a consequence of the Brexit deal. I believe EU banking regulators may require an EU subsidiary to have senior management in situ - rather than a brass plate EU office.
It was all a matter of how tough the EU wanted to be. Companies like Barclays will do whatever they need to do to satisfy the needs of their customers.

It looks like the future of branch banking is 'digital' - which equates to a 2 hour journey to find a branch. I'm not sure the public will appreciate that at first and politicians may try to slow the process of branch closures. But according to the guy in the video the saving could be huge.

The feeling about BARC seemed to be that it has a bit of an identity crisis....which probably means it hasn't yet delivered on what was promised. ALthough I'm not really sure what they have promised (there was a doubling of SP statement by Chairperson many years ago when SP was circa 250p...still makes me laugh/cringe).
Does seems to be a Premiership type scheme where the 'players' (aka investment bankers) get most of the rewards. We are left with the pride of being part of the Barclays Club. Perhaps we should vent our spleen like Man U fans!!

Thanks for everyones thoughts on what the oil price might or might not do in the near term.

It sort of reads like nobody knows and anything is possible.

Although I suspect IF the price of oil does start to climb towards $80 certain countries would ask OPEC (& OPEC+) to pump more....and certain members of OPEC+ would be happy to oblige.

IMO the OP isn't as simple as saying rising demand equates to rising price of oil. There is over supply - especially IF shale producers are still operating. Plus there is a cartel that can, to some extent regulate supply, and that organisation is subject to outside political pressure.

So I may want $80pb but I doubt people in Bejing or on Capitol Hill want the same thing. So 'perhaps' a 'happy' compromise would be to keep oil at $65pb ....but no more. But what the hell do I know, I ain't no expert!!

"I assume you are joking."
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No

Boyobach, I didn't mean to say it would necessarily fall just that it is more likely to be nearer $50pb than $80pb when/if demand increases. As I say I am no expert.

So do you think the oil price will increase towards $80pb - from circa $65 currently - when/if demand rises?

The ability of shale producers to start pumping is a big unknown for me...hence why I keep saying I am no expert. Similarly the fragility of OPEC+ agreements (also unknown to me).

$80pb would be great for Shell....I might even increase my holding % if it is 'on the cards'!

Notice how they are now producing quarterly 'results' rather than 'production updates'....exactly the same thing of course.
Also that the quarterly updates seem to be regular....which wasn't the case when things weren't going so well and they didn't want to update us so regularly. All positive signs IMO.

Hopefully they are encouraging their staff & families to get vaccinated and helping them get the vaccine.
I'm not sure how the pandemic has effected Kazakhstan. But a healthy & protected workforce (& their families) is good for Altyn.
I expect they would get the Russian vaccine.

"RDS obviously benefits from higher OP and higher demand rather than low OP and low demand."
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Boyobach, oh...you were being rhetorical?!

Obviously high demand at $80pb is 'better' for Shell than low demand at $50pb....is there even a question there?

More interesting (at least to me) is the question "Is healthy demand at $50/bbl likely to be better for RDS than poor demand at $80/bbl?" ......I would imagine so.

For it is more likely (in my non expert eyes) for oil to be nearer $50pb when demand increases than it rising to $80pb....but it would be great for Shell if it did reach $80.

and the production update isn't being hidden away on a Friday at 6pm!!

Almost like they wanted to hide 'something' in the year end report...or they have learned a lesson.

Watched the actual video and he did say 'process'....but 'probably' English isn't his first languange and he did have a large glass of Scotch in his hand!

PS I made up the bit about the whisky.

It seems he might have been drunk...because multiple sauces (sic) are quoting him as saying 'process'.

Which half will be green....the top half is the incredible hulk or the bottom half?

From the article: "“If we do not make that type of process by the middle of next decade, we have a problem not just as a company but as a society,” Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in an interview with AXIOS on HBO"

I presume that should read 'progress' and not 'process'.....either the CEO was drunk or he was misquoted, surely!!

"Is healthy demand at $80/bbl likely to be better for RDS than poor demand at $50/bbl? I would imagine so."
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The other way round, surely?!

There seems to be some sort of strange & unhealthy fan club developing....every time he/she posts they almost 'gleefully' respond and feed his/her ego. I suppose if it makes them happy there is no harm done!!....other than ruining this discussion board of course.

I think it has been suggested before that there doesn't seem to be much link between the oil price (OP) and Shell's SP. So perhaps the market doesn't believe the current OP is representative of what it will be in the near future.
IF OP stays above $60 AND demand increases then Shell profits will jump and SP will look cheap....surely?!