Member Info for bald_eagle

OPEC+ seems to be keeping the OP high enough ('artificially'...I thought mononpolies were illegal?!) to make producing 'profitable'....it is just the demand that is needed square the circle.

But only last year Russia fell out with OPEC and the OP tanked. So could that happen again.

The real test for OPEC+ will be when/if green technologies start to reduce the demand for oil significantly. Then the producers like Russia - who are struggling under US sanctions - will demand a bigger slice of the OPEC+ pie - until it breaks the concensus. AT some point supply will significantly outstrip demand.....and at the same time the oil producing countries will be needing more cash to transition to a green future.

Hopefully companies like SHell can raise enough cash reserves to fund a realistic green transition whilst oil assets fetch a good price.

We have 'incidents' in the UK too, Tricky.
There was the incident where a 'suspect' was arrested (was it in Croydon) and taken back to holding cell, but they had a concealed gun and shot & killed the duty officer.
It's a dangerous world out there and I guess knowing that can determine how the police tackle a situation. So we (the public) have to 'try' to take that into account when viewing the footage.

Having said that what I have seen of what Chauvin did to George Floyd is totally unacceptable (in my opinion).

I'm of the opinion that buybacks MAY be a sign that 'the management' don't have any idea how to spend their spare cash.
For a company like Shell - which faces the business model threat of a shift to green energy - it COULD be very worrying.
I would have thought that they should be partnering with innovative companies in low carbon technologies, funding their research and/or development....with the option to purchase a controlling interest in the future. Perhaps they are doing such things. I hope so.

I suspect all the members of OPEC+ would like the OP to be nearer $60pb than $20.....so they will 'probably' balance production to economic demand to keep it above $50.
There seems to be a tacit agreement to let Russia & Kaz have a bit more of production than they were strictly entitled to keep them 'happy'.
But increased economic activity seems factored in....which is to be expected now we have successful vaccine roll-outs and a roadmap out of the crisis.

"....it’s not all about OP - which is being artificially maintained above $60 in the face of low levels of demand. "
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Who is keeping the OP 'artificially' high?

Will the dividend be returning to pre-covid levels?

"Shares in Tremor International are currently priced at 700p. At this level they are trading at 71.75% discount to the analyst consensus target price of £2.47p."
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Something wrong here?
700p is the same as £7....which exceeds the analyst consensus target of £2.47. Or have I misunderstood?!
Where did the 'analyst consensus target' come from?

As with all technology it takes time to iron out all the bugs and for the technology to develop to reach its full potential. The first computers & mobile phones were pretty dire.
New technologies also open up new ways of running our businesses & personal lives, the interweb springs to mind. Some companies thrive in such a scenario, others do not.Question is can SHell make the most of these new opportunities?

"There is a boom of ideas and changes on the horizon...covid hasnt stopped R&D .."
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Exactly right Pokerships. But where does SHell fit into the 'brave new Green WOrld' and how will the shift (be it gradual or fast) impact revenues & profits.
Answer: I suspect nobody knows.....although they are probably paying SHell's top management enough to give the illusion of foresight!!
Question is can an 'old economy' behemoth like SHell be as fleet footed as the newer economic power houses (Tesla, Google, Amazon etc etc), who see an opportunity & 'go for it'. I am sure SHell will have a role to play....big question is how big a role?!
That Shell garage might become defunct in a relatively short time....people can charge their electric car at home or a supermarket (whilst shopping for plastic free products!!). Big changes around the corner.

These are unusual times for oil companies. The lockdown has made 'people' assess how they want to structure their lives and look to the future....building back better (where is my vomit bag?!) for a green future.
Whether 'people' are actually willing to pay the price for that vision of environmental nirvana is another matter, most likely they will soon revert back to their dirty, unhealthy ways.
SHell (& other such companies) are caught between their highly profitable carbon based business and a 'target' to transition to some 'carbon neutral' (utter garbage!!) form of the business. So until the market sees the pace of shift to a greener world economy & how SHell adjusts to that new world order (if it appears) then SHell SP might be subdued IMO.
I personally think that the average person won't want to pay for a green future and I suspect most governments won't want - or can even afford - to pay for it. SO my uneductaed hunch is that SHell will do OK....at least in the next 5 years.

I suppose one of the big questions is how quickly Shell needs to transition away from hydrocarbons and if they can stay profitable at the same time?
The world seems to be ready - at least parts of it - to set tough green targets....which should offer huge investment opportunities to companies who are willing & able to take the leap of faith. Perhaps Shell will be involved in that in a meaningful way!

Boyobach, I hadn't realised that your 'formula' was part an anti-theory. Way too subtle for me, especially when I have only recently started follwoing the chat here. So excuse my confusion.

Personally I suspect that oil price (OP) dominates SP when it is either very low or very high (say $20 or $100 per barrel). Probably when the price is within certain limits (say 5 year average +- x%) then 'other' factors may dominate the SP. Just a theory.

LITD1, north of £3 should be easily attainable, we were nearly there last year and have been over £3 under the current management (a couple years back). What is a realistic SP is a guesstimate....but above £5 my guess. But there are so many factors to include. But if 'people' start to pay an interest then skies the limit. Albeit Kazakhstan probably isn't best place for a gold mine

NB Still getting used to SP being in £'s not pence.

Last year:
- Annual financia;l report was 1st May 2020
- Q1 production update was 11th May 2020

So early next month should be very interesting!!

LITD1, probably the best that can be said is that IF ALtynGold hit their targets in the years ahead is that the SP 'should' be a lot higher in the future.
There are so many variables it is 'probably' impossible to sensibly value ALTN....other than to say given the potential it is 'probably' under-valued by quite a lot.
But ALTN have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. So what they really need is a few years of solid production figures and increasing profitability.

The Americans ain't gonna like it.
Hasn't the Biden administration recently threatened tariffs on UK goods over our plans to impose a 'tech tax'?!

Yeah, it is important to have a well reasoned balanced analysis of Tremor's future potential. It will give us some facts to mull over.

Final results early May. So there should also be some guidance from the management on their plans for next few years.
Hopefully they will soon be generating enough cash to fund most of the investment required to ramp up production to their stated targets.

AFter over a year and hundreds of billions spent on the pandemic (just in the UK) it is bizarre and slightly disturbing that some people don't understand why it was done.
I don't agree with Brexit but I do understand why it happened.

I also don't understand the simplistic theory that Shell's SP is linked to the price of Oil alone. I would have thought that global economic activity is just as important i.e. the quantity of oil being used. Oil could be $1000 a barrel but if nobody is using any then it isn't going to benefit Shell....surely!!

"Please give me a single historical example where mutation has caused massive strife? "
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You're having a laugh, right?!