Member Info for bald_eagle

"I would rather the return of excess capital to be rolled out over a longer time frame to support a progressive dividend policy."
======================================
And 'obviously' there will be a sizeable share buy-back scheme announced.

What are the chances of a 'special'?

Excess capital must be quite high and they could pay a 'special' equal to last years cancelled div....or am I barking?

MrA, what a strange article....he has software that makes 'claims'!! That is a person who has become too attached to the technology.
No discussion of what will drive the SP higher (fundamentals, macroeconomics etc) apart from some really weird conspiracy theory about bitcoin. Bizarre!

"One little puzzle has been the recent news that Barclays introduced restrictions on clients’ ability to transfer money to the leading cryptocurrency exchanges.
Our curiosity is awakened, as we cannot see how the bank intends to make money from this manoeuvre. Unless we're about to see cryptocurrency exchanges run by the banks in the UK, perhaps intended to produce a respectable way of trading bitcoin etc, allowing the current restrictions to be lifted.
Despite the PR headlines saying the banks have introduced this restriction to protect their clients’ money, we're more than a little suspicious as to Barclays’ real motives, as banks’ own bottom lines generally provide the driving force for decisions."

Totally misses the point that some of the cryptocurrencies seem little more than ponzi schemes....but I guess his beloved software hasn't told him that.

Steve, you need to take it up with Monty Don (I think he will kick your butt).

The destruction of our peat bogs & wetlands is symptomatic of how we have treated the environment in the last 70 years. It was OK to buy peat for the garden because it made our garden plants grow strong. But ironically - and I'm sure it passed you by - those peat bogs were/are carbon sinks (they absorb carbon).
But you (STeve305) seem totally unaware what is happening in the world. IT is changing, investment patterns are changing, even SHell is coming under pressure to change. But I suppose certain people will find a comfortable bucket of sand to settle themselves in, to weather the storm(s). I suspect they are still buried deep hoping when they extract themselves the pandemic never happened....and their SHell shares are still at £22
Some people ain't worth the effort.

"Could you please tell me, anyone here has made any
Money today from trading(s)? "
=========================================
Trading LLOY? You must be joking?!
PS I made a mint shorting the Scottish pound.

"Scottish & British, proud to be both.
Long may the British Union flag fly over Stirling Castle."
===================================================
Wow. There's a lot of history to digest in that statement & one would have to know the history of your family/
The British have done some terrible things....perhaps for very good reason. But I'm not sure I would be 'proud' of everything they have done.
Perhaps you meant....'proud to be Scottish, glad to be British"!! That I can understand....although I'm not sure I would want to live in Scotland!!...too bloody cold.

"Peat is a fossil fuel used in the bronze age."
====================================
Peatbogs are a great carbon sink 'apparently'!!...but we dig them up and spread them round our garden paradises.
In 2010 the UK government called for the phasing out of the use of peat, with end of use in peat in household gardens by 2020. This was a voluntary code....and of course the target was missed. Even Monty Don is now calling for the banning of all peat use by 2025 (previuously the 'target ' was 2030 for commercial growers).
PS Never used to like Monty Don but the man has balls.

8888, why couldn't an independent Scotland continue to use the pound?...at least until an alternative is organised, should one be required. Presumably IF SCotland joined the EU then the Euro would eventually be the currency (subject to meeting the requirements).

There is a retracted article that might have some relevance to the 'Mini Ice Age' story:

"RETRACTED ARTICLE: Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale"
(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3)

"The Editors have retracted this Article.
After publication, concerns were raised regarding the interpretation of how the Earth-Sun distance changes over time and that some of the assumptions on which analyses presented in the Article are based are incorrect....
S. I. Zharkov agrees with the retraction. V. V. Zharkova, E. Popova, and S. J. Shepherd disagree with the retraction."

Let the conspiracy theories run wild & free!!

Mojo, you made some good points in your rant (IMO).

I'm not sure anyone is going to be 'forced' to change their ways (in a facist or communist way). There is persuasion in many forms but ultimately you have to take people with you...otherwise they rebel. Most people want to eat healthy, quality, local grown produce....especially if it is affordable. I want to live in a house that is draught free and doesn't cost an arm & a leg to heat (not sure how I'm gonna get there though!!). Opportunities for business too.

"The strong forecast this year for the UK reflects the key role that vaccination plays in supporting economic recovery.....But that also reflects the UK rebounding from a downturn that was one of the deepest.
The OECD report gives a flavour of how countries are performing over the course of the health crisis by setting out how long it expects them to take to get back to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity (GDP) per capita. For the UK, it's the middle of next year, along with Italy and Canada.
That's a few months ahead of France and Spain but behind the US, Japan and Germany. It's also behind several emerging economies, including China, which was the first to regain the lost ground. " (Andrew Walker, economics correspondent)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57306596

LTI, to some extent any dividend whether a 'special' dividend (utilising excess capital) or a 'standard' dividend (a % of annual profit) should reduce the SP commensurately...in theory because it is money going out of the business, however dividends are sometimes more than that and for some shares the desireability of holding the stock is linked to the income it generates....surely.

Two banks generate the same profit but one pays a higher dividend, would they automatically be valued the same? In theory, the one that pays the lower dividend should have a higher SP because it is retaining more capital. As long as the dividends were sustainable I know which stock I would prefer.

"Share price will be dependent on future projections of profitability, and not on whether a dividend will be paid in Sept and Dec.
The excess capital sitting on the balance sheet that could be returned to shareholders will be reflected in the SP."
====================================================
LTI, I might have misunderstood....it seems that 'excess capital' determines the liklihood of a dividend - and possibly the amount -which is reflected in the SP but future dividends are not.But since 'excess capital' is linked to future dividends....how can 'excess capital' determine SP but 'future dividends' cannot because effectively they are one and the same?

"The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says the UK is likely to grow 7.2% in 2021, up from its March projection of 5.1%.”"
===================================================
Isn't it all relative? Wouldn't the significance of any growth depend upon a countries performance during the pandemic. Surely one would expect quite high growth because the UK is recovering lost ground because we had a relatively bad pandemic in terms of the economy.

Any other time growth of 7.2% would be phenomenal...almost on a par with Chinese annual growth over the last decade.

Has the removal of the dividend shackle already been factored into the LLOY SP?

Often this sort of thing is written into the SP months ahead....apparently!! Such that when they happen & the SP does nothing some bright spark always writes "The market had it factored in".

"oh well if we don't understand it we can always make it up to suit the agenda/theories."
=================================================================
I had a touch of deja vu reading that.

Took me back to early last year when some people were dismissing the risk of a pandemic as fake news and the scientists with their 'theories' as scare mongering. Thank god it all proved to be a lot of hot air and the virus nonsense fizzled out!!

The point is, that IF the scientists are correct then to do nothing would be very silly indeed. When your way of life is threatened hopefully you don't just stick your head in a bucket of sand and hope that things will improve. Sure sometimes the experts get things wrong but this time we cannot afford to do nothing....if the scientists are half right then things could get very 'sticky' for our children abd they will not thank us for our inactivity.

Hopefully Shell can be part of the solution. Our 'job' as investors is to spot the trend and invest accordingly. There are bound to be exciting opportunities....hopefully Shell management can be contribute something positive.

"They want UK plc to recruit based on need and driving factors, not just just open door free-for-all’s."
=========================================
Fair enough. But it is a double edged sword. In 'getting back control' we have also lost the right to live & work in EU countries....which does NOT mean that we cannot live & work in the EU, just it will be more difficult in the future.
There is 'talk' that countries like India want greater access for their citizens to come to the UK as part of any trade deal, so we might be swapping EU labour for labour from around the world - in our rush for trade deals. Post Brexit reality.
But we need the workforce I suppose.

"....and there is only one way to tell someone that you dont agree with their ever expanding club, which has some rules that you dont agree with, and that is to leave."
==================================================================
One problem with that, it doesn't stop the club from expanding.

There is another way....change the club from the inside by getting support from other members. But that is not an option to us now. Time to move on and learn to live with out expansionist neighbour.

"Europe (in my opinion) dont have agreat track record when it comes to having armies."
==========================================================================
Has there ever been a 'European' army before?
What are the alternatives....do nothing and rely on Nato? And if another Trump (or even the Donald himself) comes back into power Nato will be in the firing line again.
OR rely on the armies of individual member states...some who cannot be bothered investing in an army!! Surely it makes sense for Europe to have some defence capability and to pool resources so that they get an army that works coherently rather than a hodge podge of incompatible equipment & forces. Or they can contine to rely on the generousity of the Americans I suppose - look what happened to the Kurds & now Afghanistan.

I believe there is a theory that once a certain average global temperature is reached there may be no way to prevent catastrophic global warming...a tipping point. I think we are very close to that average global temperature.
Some of the mechanisms for global warming are still little more than theories and research is still being done....it is amazing how little we understand how our world works.

Something as 'silly' as forest fires may cause soot to be deposited onto glaiciers & ice sheets causing them to melt quicker, raising sea levels quicker than has been modelled. This could be more serious than any pandemic.
Is it my imagination but are rich people spending vast sums of money on yachts?!...perhaps they know something.