Member Info for badeli

I may be the only poster on this board who is also invested in Ncondezi Energy (NCCL). Scott Fletcher has built his position there to the extent that he is the largest shareholder at c18% and has recently invited to join the Board. Scott is a very successful investor.

Apologies if this has been posted already - the government is clearly in a hurry to begin mass testing in homes nationwide - click the link for the full article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/07/royal-mail-amazon-battle-550m-home-testing-contract/

Royal Mail and Amazon are scrambling to seize control of Boris Johnson’s “Operation Moonshot” programme to deliver 215,000 home testing kits a day.

The duo are this weekend finalising rival bids to win a £550m, one-year contract from the taxpayer to spearhead home testing as part of NHS Test and Trace.

The Department for Health has given operators four days warning, prompting a frenzied effort to submit bids ahead of a deadline on Tuesday.

Along with delivering 215,000 home testing kits every day, seven days of Covid test “buffer stock” must be held. Up to four tests can be delivered to each household every day, official filings reveal.

The contract value could swell to more than £1bn with an option to extend for another 12 months.

Amazon, founded by the world’s richest person Jeff Bezos, was awarded the contract for the home testing of key workers in March. The US tech giant has waived any fees and charges for its services. However, the tender notice says: “Price is not the only award criterion.”

A mass home testing regime is a central plank of Mr Johnson’s ambition to allow Britons to return to a more normal life until scientists develop a Covid-19 vaccine.

Last month, Royal Mail’s Keith Williams said: “[Moonshot] is an opportunity for Royal Mail to show what we can do.”

Apologies if this has been posted already - the government is clearly in a hurry to begin mass testing in homes nationwide - click the link for the full article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/07/royal-mail-amazon-battle-550m-home-testing-contract/

Royal Mail and Amazon are scrambling to seize control of Boris Johnson’s “Operation Moonshot” programme to deliver 215,000 home testing kits a day.

The duo are this weekend finalising rival bids to win a £550m, one-year contract from the taxpayer to spearhead home testing as part of NHS Test and Trace.

The Department for Health has given operators four days warning, prompting a frenzied effort to submit bids ahead of a deadline on Tuesday.

Along with delivering 215,000 home testing kits every day, seven days of Covid test “buffer stock” must be held. Up to four tests can be delivered to each household every day, official filings reveal.

The contract value could swell to more than £1bn with an option to extend for another 12 months.

Amazon, founded by the world’s richest person Jeff Bezos, was awarded the contract for the home testing of key workers in March. The US tech giant has waived any fees and charges for its services. However, the tender notice says: “Price is not the only award criterion.”

A mass home testing regime is a central plank of Mr Johnson’s ambition to allow Britons to return to a more normal life until scientists develop a Covid-19 vaccine.

Last month, Royal Mail’s Keith Williams said: “[Moonshot] is an opportunity for Royal Mail to show what we can do.”

I respectfully disagree, Richar, we are invested solely because we want to see a financial return, hopefully a very good one. Dr Al and his team will be making sure that those who need to know do know. I am confident he and his team are working with government representatives, with manufacturers, with logistics companies, with other pharmaceuticals etc. Investors will be told through an RNS when there is something to announce which is market-sensitive, I do not think there is any reason for or value in PIs being told things are going well. If we were to learn that through an RNS, the derampers would all be shouting ‘delay, delay’ and I am not sure where that would get us.

We all have a choice either to stay with our investments, and perhaps build them up because we have convinced ourselves the returns will be more than worth the wait, or to sell because the timeline worries us and invest elsewhere. I will buy more tomorrow.

The BHA JV is crucial and must be getting close - worth listening to https://twitter.com/DShox1/status/1325009548885843969. Guy Meyer and his BHA counterpart very upbeat, Guy talks about being 'within touching distance of cliff edge' in terms of exponential growth. He clearly fields that the partnership will contribute to the 'solution to this massive global pandemic'. Their integrated approach and use of blockchain might be the key to very quick growth and the next few weeks should be very interesting.

Was that a significant 4% stakebuilding yesterday? Always interesting when a shell attracts new investment. I am happy to wait while TRAF sleeps and hope to see a sudden uplift within the next few weeks.

Hi SneakySimon, I don't want to comment more than necessary on other stocks on the ODX board, and won't do so again (!) but it is probably worth pointing out that the Avacta CEO, Alastair Smith, sold less than 4% of his holding - in my view why wouldn't he do that if he wanted to free some cash? He is hugely committed to the company and he and Avacta are certainly worth researching.

This suggestion has come up more than once but in my view it is better to spread investments, even if they are all ‘chasing’ the same or similar goals. I have sold quite a few shares from other sectors and split my COVID testing and/or therapeutic investments 4 ways:

ODX because of how advanced Mologic is and the capacity to scale up manufacture

AVCT because I happen to believe that its management is working with the government and that, once validated, its saliva, 10 minute LRT will become the gold standard

NCYT because it is the most advanced company with most contracts, most types of test and already generating enormous profits which mean it is significantly undervalued in reality and not just in potential
VELA because I like the underdog, the new kid on the block. New boss James Normand has a brilliant track record and his investment in a COVID treatment for diabetics seems very astute.

I do not personally enjoy posts which denigrate other companies which are all fighting the same fight against coronavirus. I have no doubt the worldwide need will be far greater than can be met by 50 companies, never mind my favoured four, and I hope they all do well.

I would be interested in other views and selections,

I am pretty confident that all LTHs are very pleased to see confirmation of Scott Fletcher’s appointment to the Board of NCCL. He has built up his position using his own funds and, as the largest shareholder, he is well placed to represent all of us LTHs who have stayed invested because we believe the frustration we have felt will be forgotten when the final hurdles are crossed. Well done, Scott, and well done too to Hanno and his colleagues for their decision to offer him a seat on the Board.

I am not going to bother reading all the post RNS comments - a quick glance at the first few was enough. I am really pleased for Dr Smith and his family and wish them all a lovely time in their new house. His genius and hard work have made Avacta what it is today and I for one am very grateful that I have been able to buy shares in his company. The fact that sellers have suddenly jumped on his decision to think of his personal and family priorities just for once and have immediately shared their negativity, aided and abetted by MMs who will take a profit when they see it, does not in any way affect the long-term prospects of the company. Yes, it is a shame that this morning’s momentum buyers are down 10% at the moment but today’s news will soon be forgotten and the future remains as bright now as it was at 1.30. And that is 100% down to Dr Smith and his colleagues. Caveat emptor, especially when you are a PI - we have all had our bad moments but in the end quality will out!

I very much appreciate all the detective work carried out by some of the regular posters. I would much rather read your ideas here than to read the kind of regular updates from Alessandro which he used to issue as RNSs when in fact he was just promising even better news would follow. Since he and the company altered their PR strategy I have become much more confident in the business model and it is great to read of all the HNW individuals who are backing him.
I am confident that when we next get an RNS it will have been worth waiting for and will confirm substantive progress which will result in a rerate back initially toward the 1p area which was earlier threatened by hype. Next time it will be threatened by a really interesting business model which investors will understand - perhaps even me!

I am confident that the 'new' MOS, with its very interesting SaaS service, will prove to be a very successful investment and I am happy to wait for updates on the clients it wins which should give us a good indication of the direction of travel.
Thank you, LLDG, for all you do to keep us informed - I for one appreciate the time you devote to your research.

I am holding and watching and happy to do so for some time as I am confident that TRAF has the potential to generate excellent returns in due course. Anyone know why we are up 14% today? I may have missed something but I am pzzled!

All very positive and promising - I would not be surprised to see many more PIs arriving here soon. Great to be debt-free so that James Normand, who has such a strong background, can use the cash pile to build value. I too love the use of the word ‘lively’ to describe progress over the next few months!

amateur.invest, I am not sure it is Avacta but I am pretty confident from various comments and hints that the government is in touch with Dr Al, we know there are deals in place to ramp up production in the UK etc. However, it is only a best guess and is based mainly on the last Dr Al interview which, in my view at least, 'confirmed' in all but words that Avacta is front and centre of Operation Moonshot. Yes, there are other lateral flow tests and I have no doubt there is room for them all.
I may be completely off the mark but I don't think so.

Matt Han**** has just made a statement to the House in which he discussed the ramping up of testing and specifically stated, I think for the first time, that major work is taking place to ramp up production of 15 minute, saliva-based lateral flow tests, and that the government is already purchasing them. He emphasised that these tests are our best hope of a return to something approaching normality until a vaccine is widely available. Jeremy Hunt followed up by expressing his delight that lateral flow tests had been mentioned as our best hope and said it was the most reassuring and positive statement he had heard about Covid in the House for a considerable time.

Please excuse me paraphrasing what was said as accurately as I can - I was driving as I listened and have now returned home and noted down the most significant comments as I remember them.

I am pleased that posting the DT article has resulted in a few sensible and thoughtful responses. I gave up reading posts yesterday - all I, and I suspect all other genuinely interested and invested PIs want, is regular discussion about Avacta and its products. No more and no less. I am happy to read posts comparing AVCT to other Covid stocks as long as the comments are balanced - there is a clearly a place and a role for different tests gong forward and I for one hope all the companies - ODX, NCYT, GDR, SNG etc - succeed and reward their investors as well as helping the national effort to combat Covid.

As an aside, the Sunday Telegraph article is not in any way promoting AVCT's rapid test, the point I was making is simply that there is clearly an assumption being made by the Government that millions of tests will be required daily for at least the next 2.5 years - AVCT will certainly be part of the plan.

Recycling seems likely, there have been reports about concerns for 'all the non-recyclable elements' of Covid test material in general, not specifically in relation to Avacta. Recycling clearly is not as important in the context of the need to provide millions of tests daily but imagine the amount of plastic which would be discarded, added to land-fill etc so it would make sense for it to be collected and disposed of in as environmentally appropriate way as possible.

Here is the relevant extract:

'Royal Mail is targeting a contract worth almost £800m to spearhead mass home testing for up to two and a half years under Boris Johnson’s “Operation Moonshot”.

Keith Williams, the chairman, wants postal workers to deliver and collect up to 200,000 home Covid testing kits a day until mid-2023.

The tender, worth between £384m and £785m, reveals home testing will play an “increasingly significant” role. It says: “The ambition of NHS Test and Trace is to ensure that everyone who needs a test in the UK has access to one.”

Royal Mail is expecting to compete with rivals including Amazon for the work. Ministers hope Operation Moonshot will allow a much greater degree of normal life to return even without a mass vaccination programme.'

The Sunday Telegraph reports today that the Royal Mail plans to tender against Amazon and others for an £800 million Operation Moonshot contract to deliver and collect 200,000 home tests daily until mid 2023. A very clear indication that home-testing will be with us for a considerable time and that the accuracy, reliability and ease of use of Avacta’s saliva test is going to mark it out as the gold-standard test. Dr Al is clearly right to have prioritised quality over speed and Avacta will reap the rewards.

‘Britain will be carrying out a million coronavirus tests a day by Christmas, scientists have predicted.’

Various types of test mentioned including:

‘In addition schoolchildren will be offered weekly Covid screening as early next week after government ministers approved the first ‘pregnancy-style’ test. It can give a result in as little as 15 minutes without needing to be sent to a laboratory. ....

These are short extracts from the front page of tomorrow’s Times. Very detailed article but does talk about mouth swabs etc so not definitely AVCT although of the article suggests Avacta are central to government thinking.

BBC 1 News has just mentioned Boris’s comments as well. Weekend media will be interesting, perhaps Andrew Marr on Sunday.