Member Info for badeli

It is sometimes important to remember that this board includes investors whose timeframe for their investment can be measured in months and often years and who share insights with each other, express concerns and encourage debate. Today's RNS represents an outstanding step forward by Avacta and validates our investment. I have no professional background in research and rely on others to point me in the right direction and allow me to make decisions from a position of some knowledge - I am grateful to each of you who contributes to my knowledge and, I suspect, to that of many others.
I will begin to focus on the shareprice when I am thinking of realising my investment and today's news makes it even more likely that it will be years before that becomes important. Meanwhile I will continue to filter anyone who in my opinion, and I accept it is only my opinion, has no interest whatever in doing anything except trying to worry less experienced investors out of their money. I am not sure how you can sleep at night - perhaps you should try to remember that most investors are good people trying to increase their capital for the sake of their families and the last thing they need is to be bombarded by uncaring and unethical derampers whose malign influence is apparent on so many boards.

Every word in this RNS matters - there are clear hints everywhere that everything is on track and Avacta’s test is going to become the gold standard. The emphasis on the production capacity, world-wide demand etc stand out. Outstanding RNS from a very confident Dr Al who is clearly very proud of what his team are achieving and the positive effect the products they are devising will have for many people. The market, and of course PIs,, should be be reassured by this RNS that we are investors in a superb company whose significance in the fight against Covid and other diseases is growing by the month. Brilliant work and a great long-term investment.

Thank you, CF73, for your excellent transcription of what came across as a much more confident and upbeat Hanno than last time.
Please note that Elizabeth Johnson, who is in charge of company comms and PR, has just posted the following for clarification on a Twitter group:
'The historical cost audit Hanno talks about covers both the mine and power plant hence the range $17-25m mentioned'
It seemed fairly clear from the interview that the only major equity partners envisaged at the moment are NCCL and CMEC - GE will be a contractor only.

Hi CF73, my thoughts on the timing of any possible bid are based on my feeling that CMEC would happily pay a premium for certainty. I suspect they are not concerned about the cost given how close they appear to be to major Chinese banks and to the government. What I think they would prefer is an off the shelf purchase once everything is signed and sealed.
NCCL are a one trick pony (or perhaps one and a tiny little sliver of a second one!) whereas CMEC are more like all the racehorses in the Grand National and Gold Cup fields combined! The comparative value of the pony (even one that knows one trick!) and all the horses in the two races is probably similar to the comparative value of NCCL and CMEC! Just my thoughts and probably far-fetched but I do think that there are many LTHs who cannot see a reason why CMEC would want Ncondezi 'getting in the way' once the project really gets going.
They have needed Ncondezi's expertise, local knowledge and ability to focus 100% on Tete to get to where they are now but Hanno has often made it clear that taking the development forward once all the contracts are signed is way out of his company's comfort zone and that of course is when CMEC and GE, with all their shared experience of many similar projects, will come into their own and potentially decide to make Hanno an offer he cannot refuse, and which he might be very happy to accept so that he can move on with his colleagues.

I have said it before but it is perhaps worth repeating - NCCL have been given first refusal for the first 8 (?) of GridX's solar battery projects which, if they take up some or all of the options, will cost them millions of pounds which they do not have ........ unless they are bought out just before Financial Closure by CMEC once all the risks have been eliminated from the main power-station and mine project in Tete. I wondered out loud whether that might be the moment for CMEC to decide to buy out NCCL, resulting in Hanno and his team 'suddenly' having the means to make serious investments in GridX which is of course run by his brother. I would caution anyone reading this that this suggestion is no more than my musings. The fact that the new Twitter account is called Ncondezi and not NCCL makes me even more curious - Hanno must be worn out by his years of commitment to Tete and might like the idea of a less stressful future with his brother at GridX! Probably crazy, but I wonder!

Excellent post, Timster, the comparison with Sono is a sensible one and the 7 weeks taken by them to optimise their results seems perfectly reasonable. The timeframe of PIs looking for a swift return compared to that of professional biochemists ensuring that whatever they publish can stand up to international scientific scrutiny and lead to a therapy which will have a positive impact on the fight against Covid-19 is totally different. Dr Al uses words and phrase like 'soon', 'a few weeks' etc without any thoughts of the impact he might have on discussion boards like this! He needs to get it right and science takes as long as science takes! Investors will realise this and are thinking of the share-price in 3 months'time, not this afternoon.

Good to have a few more comments here now - remember the days when there were multiple posters? The company has moved on so far from the SEP das and yet interest has waned and will not return until the first of the eye-catching RNSs which include some of the numbers we know we will see and which should at last begin the rerate we are expecting. At least we do not suffer any more from day-trading derampers but I suppose I hope we will see them again as that will mean excitement has returned.
I haven't bought for a little while but will probably do so later in the week if I can realise some profits elsewhere.

I picked up £1500 worth more at 2.34. Happy with the RNS and the chance to top up!

A cursory reading of today’s timely RNS reflects a much more positive tone when it comes to choice of language which suggests that Hanno and his advisers are becoming more aware of the importance of appearance as well as substance. I am not sure I remember the word ‘fantastic’ in earlier communications and there are other examples too.

Interesting to note that the team continues to work ‘tirelessly‘ to progress the project - suggests to me some frustration that they are having to push their partners and EDM and is perhaps a nod to patient shareholders.

Good to have evidence of substantive progress.

Today’s Daily Telegraph says the government plans to buy other rapid turnaround tests from other companies in addition to those mentioned today. I would love to know who is talking to whom.

Also talk on Radio 4 of newspaper reports that analysis of sewerage is to be started to detect areas at risk of potential spikes. Could be relevant to AVCT as well

In my view this is an outstanding RNS from a company which is growing in significance on a monthly basis in the fight against various diseases, including Covid-19 and future pandemics. I have no idea if the development will have the positive effect on the share price which it merits but it will certainly increase Avacta’a reputation given the nature of the collaboration With Daewoo and it certainly won’t do anything other than boost investors’ confidence in Dr Al and his team. And yes, I am just as keen to see the RNS we are waiting for and that is acknowledged by the final comment in the RNS which promises news shortly. That is fine with me.

Added another 4091 shares just now in three smallish blocks from different accounts - very positive about the coming weeks and months. Sold some Novacyt as well as I feel their excellent work is not perhaps as mainstream now in the race to find a test which is straightforward, accurate, very quick and affordable test which will have many applications. However, I will continue to hold some Novacyt and must confess I have not liked the competitive nature of some of the posts in the kart few days. I truly want both to succeed - the enemy is Covid, not other companies.
Now happy with my AVCT holding which is second only to NCCL in my portfolio.
Thank you to all objective posters who have helped to deepen my formerly very shallow understanding of antigens and antibodies - I am particularly grateful for the links which are so freely shared.

Apologies G_G_G, I have just managed to find an internet connection which has allowed me to open the RNS of 19 June and you are correct - resubmission by end of Q3 and acceptance in Q4. Lots to come before that which should help t9 some degree.

I took the Q3 prediction for tariff agreement from the June 19 update. I realise of course that Ncondezi have not historically been reliable with their date-keeping but I think they are more realistic now and I am sure Hanno believes that they will have tariff agreement by the end of Q3. Absolutely no guarantees of course but I am hopeful although I accept you are perhaps more realistic! I would be amazed if it slipped to Q1 2021 but accept a delay into Q4 is always possible. I hope I am proved correct but in the long run it does not matter as long as the outcome is as we wish!

I remain hopeful we will get tariff agreement by the end of Q3 as my reading of the RNS was that much of the extra documentation required is straightforward but needs to have data added which it seems was neither published or available to NCCL, hence why it was not included in the original submission.

I agree, G_G_G, that MIREME’s acceptance of the tariff proposal is key to unlocking value as that will confirm the 25 year agreement and NCCL’s projected income. I am not sure if the announcement, which I am confident will be positive, will certainly confirm to the wider market that the project is financially stable and cash-generative for all future investors, and that in itself would be very bullish. Whether NCCL is still involved in any significant way by the time the power station is operational is of course open to conjecture.

Hi, I do not have her Twitter account to hand - she sometimes posts on an NCCL Twitter group I am in but I cannot access it at the moment from where I am in the north of Scotland because of very limited WiFi. Her company was appointed by Ncondezi some months ago to run their PR. Her direct email is info@ncondezicoal.com - hope that helps.

Hi CF73, it is good to be one of quite a large number of sensible fellow investors who neither ramp or deramp but just stay up to date with developments in anticipation of an eventual stratospheric return on our investment!

Talking about equity partners I am not expecting GE to participate - I think it will be NCCL and CMEC and I do wonder if in the fullness of time Hanno will receive an offer from the Chinese which he (and we) can’t refuse and which would result in Ncondezi suddenly being sufficiently cash-rich to become a serial investor in GridX projects. I have, I think, noticed a few straws in the wind which hint at this but it is just conjecture on my part and will probably turn out to be rubbish but you never know. I am in any case looking forward to a series of positive RNSs over the coming months which, as Elizabeth has recently said in a post on Twitter, will have a very positive effect on the share price! Something will sometime!

Yes, it is boring and frustrating but I will simply wait patiently - I have no doubt Hanno and his colleagues are working really hard to progress the different strands of which we are all aware but it has been pointed out regularly that NCCL are in the hands of two governments and two majors and cannot work to their own preferred timelines. Add Covid-19 in to the mix and it becomes easier to accept that we are where we are. I am concentrating at the moment on trying to get behind the science of antigen and antibody testing where once again patience is key but the outcome for each company is not clear as everything depends on the results of trials. Would have been good to have been in SYN yesterday but I wasn’t although I have even higher hopes of one I am in and I now find myself checking it before NCCL each morning! However, my most significant holding remains Ncondezi and I see no reason to change that.

Sky News this morning talking about the PM's news conference later on: 'He is also expected to confirm plans to increase testing capacity to half a million antigen tests a day by the end of October to bolster the test and trace programme.'