Member Info for badeli

I am not sure about GE perhaps wanting to buy out NCCL's 40%, that is something which had not occurred to me. The last mention, as far as I can recall, of GE potentially acquiring equity was in the Non-Binding Agreement reported in 2017. My reading of the situation, for what it is worth, is that they will bring their expertise to the power elements of the project and be rewarded for that but they will not be involved in the longer term. However, that is just my hunch and your supposition is an interesting one! Not long to wait before we find out.

Hi, CF73, a couple of comments for clarification. We have been discussing the ownership split for a while on another forum and have concluded that NCCL will have 60% and CMEC 40%. GE are in full partnership and are lead developer of significant parts of the project but I do not think they will be equity holders. It might be helpful for me to copy below my comments from elsewhere which explain my reasoning:
' I think our assumption that both CMEC and GE would hold equity was a natural reaction to learning we were to have two new partners and that we would retain 40% of the project. One of us will have done the Maths and 1+1 = 3! There was no reason to think anything other than a 30:30 split but in the end it doesn't matter.'

I then checked back the actual wording of the RNS announcing our two partners, CMEC and GE, and commented as follows:

' The phrase - "currently in advanced negotiations with GE and their Chinese development partner CMEC, for THEM to acquire 60% of an integrated power plant and mine project AND TO BECOME THE MAIN EQUITY HOLDERS OF 60% OF THE PROJECT and assist us in delivering it and operating it' - now seems to me to imply that it is CMEC who will acquire the full 60%! Lots of semantics but I think the 'them' I highlighted refers to CMEC alone. Hopefully someone can clarify definitively in due course.'

I hope these comments are helpful - they are of course my opinion only but were seemingly confirmed by NCCL's PR company.

I have also read the views expressed here today about a potential buyout - I agree that this is certainly a possibility and perhaps a likely outcome before Financial Close. When I realised that it is only CMEC who were confirmed as equity partners I posted the following which might also be of interest:

'Thinking about it a buy-out by CMEC would presumably be more straightforward without the complication of having to agree with GE about the nature and terms of any bid. It is now up to CMEC and their Chinese bankers to decide what they want to do. However, it is worth emphasising that this is purely conjecture - there is no evidence whatever that they would consider a bid. The assumption by the GridX management that NCCL will have money to invest in up to 7 of their projects is perhaps the only hint - NCCL do not have, as far as I am aware, spare funds for investments on that scale and yet they have been granted preferential status, first refusal etc. Once again perhaps 2+2 = 5 but worth floating as a possibility.

Apologies for the length of this post and I look forward to the thoughts and comments of others as we approach the end of Q2

I agree with you both, G_G_G and CF 73. A price of 5p by the end of next week is certainly feasible unless, as you say, there is an RNS before that. Personally I have very little doubt that we will get at least one RNS and quite possibly 3 unless they are combined - the EPC agreement, the loan sheet terms and confirmation of tariff are all worthy of their own RNS and personally that is what I am hoping for to build some momentum. Only 7 working days after today until the end of Q2 which is the date before which we were told to expect all three.

The darkest hour is just before dawn - I have been here for years and believe the next three weeks will be among the most interesting, and hopefully rewarding. My patience has certainly been stretched for a very long time but my strategy remains to buy companies which I believe will reward patience and not to chase rainbows. It can be really boring but it works for me - if I sold now I know I would live to regret it so I will wait! Only my opinion and many others will disagree but each to his own.

I think we all do know what is in the pipeline for imminent release - EPC contract signed, tariff agreed with government, shareholder loan terms confirmed, historical costs and reimbursement finalised. That is plenty to be going on with by the end of the month.

It's hard to disagree with your view but that seems to be the way it always is so I don't lose sleep over it any more as i used to do. I am just pleased it is out of the way and they are funded until the end of Q4.

In response to Caterham7 it is my personal view, shared by other LTHs with whom I am in contact, that CMEC has a choice. Do they want to use NCCL as a buffer between themselves and the Mozambiquan government or do they wish to assume total responsibility - remember that the long-term financing and all the insurances are likely to be assumed by Chinese companies. NCCL has local knowledge, excellent contacts, the trust of the government etc but they do not either build or operate mines or power stations so they will not in that sense be needed beyond Financial Close when GE and CMEC together will drive the project forward.

NCCL's announcement that they now have right of first refusal on 7 more of GridX's pipelines of solar and storage grids is interesting. Why would GridX, who are required to carry all the development and operational risk, give NCCL this right if they did not think Hanno and his colleagues could access the c£5 million (from memory) which would be required if they take up their options for all 7 projects? NCCL do not have spare funds which would allow them to invest unless of course the main project is sold. The historical back costs they are due are very positive for all shareholders but they will be used to off set NCCL's share of the development costs of the Tete project so they will not be available for investment in GridX projects.

I am happy either way - the company is hugely undervalued at the moment, and has been for several years, but once the tariff agreement is signed before the end of June, and all the numbers are published within the following 6 to 9 months, I believe NCCL shareholders will be richly rewarded for their patience (I too by the way have built up my holding at prices ranging from 3.00 to 9.10 so I share the general frustration!). The value of the company will then continue to grow as they support CMEC and GE during the period when the project is being taken forward before it is ready to come on stream in 2023.

However, i personally think that NCCL may well be bought out well before then by the bottomless pockets of CMEC who, as I have said, will not need their help. I have no idea if that is the way Hanno and the rest are seeing their future but it would explain why they are showing an increasing commitment to Grid X and why GridX (one of whose three joint founders is, as you will probably know, Justin Pengilly, Hanno's brother) believes that NCCL will have sufficient funds to invest in up to 7 projects in the very fast-growing green energy sector.

Please note that these thoughts are just my own views and anyone interested in the NCCL story should spend time researching for themselves and drawing their own conclusions.

Anyone who is a long-term investor here was aware that a fund-raise would be needed before financial close in H1 2021. This is not a problem and I am happy to see it out of the way. The price is moving around but seems to be staying well above the 3p placing price which, if it holds, is positive.

My only slight disappointment Is that the placing was not allocated its own RNS with a second one following starting to put numbers in front of the market. If you are thinking of buying in DYOR but first of all ignore the placing and read the rest of the RNS. I remain very pleased to have built up quite a large position and have added today yet again. NCCL has been a very frustrating investment from time to time but we are getting very close to the endgame.

This is very good news in my view - excellent to be seen to be committed to renewables as an additional contribution to bringing power to outlying areas in Mozambique, good PR for financial markets in which renewables are increasingly attracting attention, and also a very good way to show they are fully engaged with the country in which their main project is based. I like the fact that NCCL has right but no obligation to invest, it has first refusal and is not responsible financially for anything other than their own investment in each project if they decide to invest. The fact that they could generate up to $750K annual revenue with minimal risk is also positive as it will help with cash-flow as they move the power project forward. This agreement in my view makes NCCL a more balanced company and an even more secure long-term investment.

Leaving the share price aside, given that we have no control over it, it is very clear that much that is positive will be happening at a very high level behind the scenes. That is good enough for me. Counterintuitively I was more 'concerned' about the falling price when we were at about 5.5. Now the price is such that, unless sales are forced, there is no point worrying about it any more as it would be daft to sell, so I am relatively sanguine about ignoring it and looking towards the horizon.
As a result of these thoughts I have just bought another 100,000 for 3.2 which seems remarkable value. My average remains c 6.00p which is annoying but fine long-term. New investors just now will, in my view, be very well rewarded but this is only my view and does not replace research but well worth a look, particularly in the light of the imminent RNS which we know is on track and will begin to reveal the extraordinary potential of NCCL. We need to remember we are 'favoured' by the Chinese and Mozambiquan government who are helping to fast-track the project and we are partnered by two majors in GE and CMEC. I could go on but it is much better to spend some time reading about the company, watching the presentations etc before, if you are thinking of investing, you make your own decision.

The summary of NCCL's presentation at the Proactive Investors event is now on the NCCL website and Chrishutch posted a link earlier. I hope it might be helpful for some to see a short summary of just how advanced the project is - the RNS confirming the submission of the tariff proposal by end of Q1 may well unlock true value and as a LTH I am somewhat jealous of those who will 'find' NCCL in the next few weeks, read the report, do their research and then buy in at a price which I for one find unbelievable. Having said that it is always positive when new investors come on board so, if that is you, DYOR and good luck!

The project is supported as follows (slide taken from the presentation)

GOVERNMENTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND CHINA

Selected as a key infrastructure project at the 2nd China-Mozambique International Cooperation
Summit in 2019

MOZAMBIQUE MINISTRY OF MINERAL RESOURCES AND ENERGY
ü Agreed project work programme and timetable
ü Power and Mine Framework Agreements signed
ü Mining Concession granted – 5967C

ELECTRICITY (BOARD) OF MOZAMBIQUE
ü Offtake contract Heads of Terms
ü Project Delivery MoU

PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROVIDER
ü JDA signed (WITH TWO MAJORS, GE AND CMEC)
ü EPC and O&M bids received
ü Agreed process to deliver key development milestones

CORNERSTONE INVESTOR
ü Leading African infrastructure development fund
ü US$3.0bn in committed funding

FINANCING SUPPORT
i Indicative debt funding terms received
from ICBC
ii Letter of interest received from Export
Import Bank of China (“Sinosure”)

Excellent RNS. Very positive and very confident wording and all on track for submission of tariff proposal in Q1

Hi POSTI, again you must DYOR and not be swayed by a tip but I like NCCL (and have done for years). Many do not believe the shareprice reflects the assets and the prospects and are hopeful of meaningful gains later in the year. Start with the RNSs over the last couple of years and see what you think.

Very happy with this morning’s RNS. Everything is on track and on schedule, the company is clearly confident about positive announcements planned for coming weeks. We can first of all look forward to hearing that O&M and EPC details have been agreed which means we will see some numbers and also that the tariff proposals will be ready for review by partners before the end of the month before then being submitted to the EDF

Caterham7, what we heard today is what we were waiting to hear and what we were promised we would hear. The PR has been excellent since the appointment of Elizabeth and her team - before then the promised update would not have materialised and the price would have fallen. Having said that, you are correct to highlight the importance of trying to ensure that positive news which will or should have a significant impact on the share price is announced when markets are focussed. If you reread this morning's RNS you will see that this is exactly what is planned - we are hoping that the figures due to be released early in the New Year will finally wake the market up to the potential which we have been aware of for some time.

I am very pleased that we are now receiving regular updates as promised about the positive progress the NCCL team is making with its partners. Everything is on track and the news flow scheduled for early 2020 should boost the share price significantly as the project moves towards final tariff agreement and financial close. It has been a long wait but in my view patience will be handsomely rewarded.

Today's RNS is the latest positive confirmation of two things - the company, together with its two major partners CNEC and GE, is making really positive progress while at the same time it continues to be the pearl in the oyster waiting to be discovered by the wider market. When investors wake up to what is happening, no longer what we hope will happen, the price will begin to reflect the true value of NCCL. And then the sparks will fly and those of us who have been building positions for several years will see our confidence justified! That is a personal opinion of course and please DYOR

We are entering a period of positive news flow and perhaps now is the time when the share price will begin to reflect the true value of the company. Plenty of LTHs still here, quietly waiting. It is really frustrating that we are languishing but there is too much good about the company to keep us here forever.

If it is reasonable to assume that there is at least one RNS likely to have a material effect on the shareprice ready to be announced before the end of the year I believe that Hanno and others 'in the know' will be deemed to be in a closed period and therefore not allowed to buy shares. Can someone confirm or correct?

Very impressed by this RNS. We knew the site visit and due diligence would be taking place but it seems to me that the recent appointment of Pimlico to handle PR is already reflected here. The wording is clear, precise and positive, just what we need going forward.