Member Info for badeli

Hi, Lurker, i do not have your experience as to how IIs decide where to look for 'annuity' investment opportunities and I am happy to accept what you say but I think it important to emphasise that I, and I expect quite a number of others, do not see NCCL as a very long-term investment. I have built up a fairly large position over three years as a shareholder and hope that a combination of expectation and emotion will combine to ensure that the value of my holding will increase significantly as the milestones of JDA, tariff approval and PPA, followed by financial close, are achieved. If those steps are indeed achieved I will sell with a very acceptable profit so in that sense your views, while interesting in themselves, are not directly relevant to someone in my position. Does that make sense?

I have listened again to Hanno's Proactive Investors interview and noted in particular two specific points he made, which we have heard before but now seem clearer and to have been emphasised with more confidence. He firstly suggested that NCCL are increasingly on the radar of potential investors or, as he calls them 'various parties' - 'we are increasingly getting there ..... attention is building'. The RNS will be (not 'hopefully' or 'perhaps' will be) a seminal moment as GE and CMEC will then be fully signed-up partners which will 'be a big vote of confidence' to potential institutional investors who seem to be keeping a very close eye on what is happening but presumably will not get involved in a small AIM company until the partnership is confirmed. The mismatch between the £20 million cap company and the £1 billion project was emphasised as a reason why interest is growing. The JDA RNS might , as we all hope, be 'blast-off!'
I also noted the emphasis on the fact that there are only 3 major derisking events to come - the JDA in April, the approval of the revised tariff which will be submitted in early Q3 and should be approved by end of Q$ (worth remembering that the numbers in this tariff proposal are significantly better than in the earlier proposal when they were working with SEP - and that proposal was approved) and the Power Purchase Agreement in about June 2020. The PPA 'is the last major milestone' before debt financing which Hanno clearly does not see as a significant problem given the attractiveness and commerciality of the project and the quality of the financial support they already have from AFC and Polynergia,
As so many have said, an excellent interview which seemed even better when watched again.

Done my research and bought first tranche today for c£2.5K

Thank you, Eyeguy, good to see you posting again both here and on NCCL, and also on Twitter.

Bought my first £2.5K this morning

Managed another 50,000+ at 7.79

It seems to have worked - if you are an investor your confidence will be reaffirmed and, if you are not, make up your own mind. I believe we are very close to a transformational RNS, certainly by the end of April but of course DYOR etc

This is a superb interview given by Hanno to Procative Investors - I am not convinced the link will work but, if it doesn't, I am sure another member of the Twitter group will post it!

Ncondezi Energy on cusp of closing US$1 billion deal for Mozambique power project:

http://tinyurl.com/y3xxfe7a via @proactive_uk @Ncondezi_Energy #NCCL #brighterir #AndrewScottTV #CapitalNetwork1

An excellent day which suggests that many investors have taken the trouble to read the RNS and think it through, then perhaps listened to Hanno on Vox and come to the conclusion I and others reached yesterday which resulted in plenty of us buying at about 6.00p. I specifically used the word investors as there will always be the 'get rich quick with a lot of luck and no effort' brigade who jump in, shout loudly, lose money and jump out again. I am looking forward to the next 6 weeks, hopefully no more ....... but you never know!

I may have mistimed my buy for 6.09 but I may not - I am a PI and have to make a judgement so the next few days and weeks will be interesting. I happen to think that the positive and measurable progress reported in the RNS and the very short proposed delay will soon be seen as reassuring and as a result I concluded that we may be at or near the bottom of this particular dip. We will see!

When I topped up early in 2018 at 3.01 I was annoyed because I could have bought them for 2.79 the next morning and similarly I did not buy at 5.00 recently as I was concerned that there might be a much longer delay and now I have paid 6.09! Having said that I was away and out of contact last summer when I had planned to sell some at 8.00 for a family occasion, came back and sold for 9.59 instead. You win some, you lose some which is OK for me as a LTH.

As an indication of my confidence I have just bought another 160,757 shares at 6.09 and am happy with my purchase

Hi Longlad, we are fully funded until the end of June 2019 by which time any fundraising will be from a higher post-JDA base and we should have historical costs reimbursed by then as per the agreement with our partners.

Regarding timelines I would much prefer to have one than not and am happy to accept that 'little' NCCL can only make its best endeavours to meet announced deadlines but in the end will always need others to attach the same level of priority as they do. All earlier missed deadlines are in the past. The signing of the JDA is the most important moment to date in the history of NCCL and like everyone else I will be really, really pleased when it is signed. I too wish it was in March but April will do for me.

From my perspective this is an excellent RNS - who cares about another month after years of investment? I am very pleased we have received a clear, unambiguous and timeous update so we don't need to complain about not been kept informed.
The tone is positive, the paperwork is at a very advanced stage and the prospects remain outstanding. If I can work out the bottom of this overreaction I will buy more but I do not usually call it right.

Offered over 8p on a dummy trade to sell for the first time for many months! Almost there and interest building way outside the normal group of LTHs. We will soon be on the radar of many more potential investors.

This weekend seems much longer than usual but finally the last years as a LTH do not seem too long. Great to see calm positivity and also good to see new holders and posters. Roll on Monday!

I continue to wonder just why the SP has languished for so long given that every RNS since GE and CNEC came on board has reported positive progress towards a binding JDA, the only caveat being relatively minor and, given the political and economic environment within which we operate, understandable delays. I just don’t see how the price can slip again in the run-up to the JDA but it has happened so often that I will not believe a sustained rise until we see it. We will see it and just perhaps it has started!

Thank you, CF73, you have summarised the history of the involvement of GE and CMEC very well - one point worth adding is that the two majors made unsolicited approaches to NCCL when SEP were still the preferred partner who were going to finance the development. There was consternation when we learned from an RNS that SEP were no longer involved until we heard soon after that we had two new, and much more significant, partners. They saw sufficient potential to want 30% each and nothing that has been said since then suggests anything other than serious, long-term commitment to a project which has for some time been included as a fait accompli in the Mozambiquan government's official power development plan for the next 20 years by which time they are planning for the whole country to have direct access to a power source.

Yes, delays are a nuisance but, unless they are a direct result of a failure by the 'host' company, in our case NCCL, and suggest unrealistic hopes or mere guesswork, they are not material. I do not 'know' Africa but we have been warned a few times that it can take longer than we would like for decisions to me made. I am happy that explains what are in the grand scheme of things fairly minimal delays and am confident that we are now in the home straight.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the MMs are beginning to allow truer value to be realised in the run-up to the signing of the JDA which will be a landmark moment for NCCL and its supporters

Hi Lurker5, I appreciate your objective contributions and think I am correct in saying that the long-term value, and therefore share-price, of Ncondezi will be determined by the estimated dividend income over 10 years divided by the number of shares in issue. I may have misunderstood this but my question really relates to how you feel the market can, or will, assign a value to the shares during the pre-production phase. My hope is that there will be significant upside over the next few years as long as the project continues to advance and I would appreciate your thoughts. Most AIM companies will never pay dividends, but not all are based on hype, so how is their value determined other than by MMs playing around with PI sentiment? Forgive me for asking, and do not comment if you feel my enquiry is inappropriate but, assuming you are invested in NCCL, I would be really interested to know what informed your decision and on what basis are you hoping to see capital growth?

Yes, this is definitely positive in every respect and personally I am pleased that the wording is imprecise about timescales for the JDA signing, updating EPC and O&M etc - they will happen when they happen and I think we all sense that Hanno and his mega-partners are focussed on delivering the project as quickly as possible. When the shareprice was 10p last summer all the talk was of the importance of the JDA 'when we can be confident the project will definitely happen' as one poster put it. Well, we are almost there and, even if the present share-price is unfathomable to many of us, everything is looking much more definite than it was nine months ago. All we need is patience!