Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Yes. That's more like the old Pogo that we dislike so much.

Nice post Pogo.

I disagree with your view on Wizz. I do agree that external factors may cause short term shocks to the share price. Long term, in my view, Wizz will be an amazing investment.

Shaman

Must be Stille and Robbren who've lasted the longest.

Welcome CWWX. I hope you stick it out for the foreseeable. The vast majority posting here prove to be just our guests. Even I haven't made a year on this forum yet, and I feel like a dinosaur.

Sorry. Don't want to mislead. My actual buy price was £12.05

I bought some more at £12.00

I have a good paper loss as well but goes with the territory. I'm in for the very long term.

Good day for some of you guys to trade. Should be some good volatility.

Barclays sell off a 5% stake twice per year for tax purposes. It never seems to move the needle on the market particularly significantly.

I bet this is negative 7% but a recovering Geopolitical situation is positive 10%. There'll be minor changes plus or minus, nothing major. That's my humble guess.

My other suggestion is maybe this is why we've seen very litte insider buying. With this out of the way, could we see Varadi and others buying?

I've read several times that Lobbenberg's (Barclays analyst) view of Wizz Air's plan is very positive. Lobbenberg nailed the recent rise in IAG and seems to have had a good record of forecasting Wizz Air's share price over the last 3-4 years.

In my opinion Wizz is best as a long term investment. I know that a lot of you guys like to trade it for the short term, and I understand that totally. It's volatile and somewhat predictable.

I take the view that buying Wizz is like buying off plan property. You buy very early to get a cheap price. We're now looking at F30 before the handcuffs come off Wizz. I don't think that Wizz Air's annual net profit can exceed €400m-€500m before F30. This is due:

1. GTF groundings, probably until summer 2028.

2. Redeliveries (very expensive in terms of maintenance and depreciation) until spring 2029.

3. Maturing routes to profitability will probably last until summer 2029.

From summer 2029, you have +/- 300 A321 NEO's operating mature routes. 100m passengers. Profitability could be €4m/Aircraft or €10/passenger, depending on how you want to look at it. Therefore €1B-€1.2B.

I also think that Airline PE multiples will improve as we get further away from Covid. 10 or 11 doesn't seem like an unreasonable PE for a fully recovered Wizz Air.

It's true that the share price can fall further but my assumption is that the recent falls are caused entirely by Geopolitical factors. Iran, Oil price, tariffs, Ukraine negotiations, etc. All of these issues can go away as quickly as they came, and we'll see Wizz back at £14.50.

I expect the June earnings report to be a good one, I think Varadi learnt a hard lesson last year. Now as per MOL's play book, he wants to give positive surprises.

James. You're the biggest knucklehead that comes on to this forum.

Frank has some views that most of us disagree with but he's polite and he puts out some good information.

They're already 55% hedged for F27. So not so bad.

Unfortunately Wizz will be forced to hedge fuel at the wrong price, again.🙄

I don't like that. It'll effect my routes...

Middle EastMoney

Yes you're probably right. I've just listened to a couple of things on YouTube. The suggestion is that the Americans are building for a prolonged campaign.

If the US attacks Iran, it'll be a storm in a tea cup. The US and Israel already have Air Supremacy over Iran. Effectively Iran is no longer able to control it's Airspace from a military perspective. Trump doesn't want to disrupt the World economy, he wants to force Iran to make the deal that he wants. The attack would happen at 2 am on a Sunday morning and would be over by 3am. The Iranian response would be completely negligible.

Kpa1 would be having a field day but he's disappeared since embarrassing himself in front of our Swiss/German/Swedish blonde... Stille

He'll get over it though. Expecting him back soon.

I guessed that a couple of bad days would bring you back John. Just waiting for your side kick (Pogo). We'll know that Wizz is a buy again when he starts posting.

A 50% rise in 3 months. Obviously that was too fast. We pull back now and then go again. £42 by the end of 2028. £56 by the end of 2030.

With Apple or Amazon, certainly in my case, I didn't have any understanding of the company, it's products or it's CEO, so to invest a lot in either 2003 or 2015 would have been a gamble to me.

Wizz is different, it has a very clear situation. It will have 300+ of the newest and best Aircraft by 2030. Nobody else can obtain those Aircraft. It's growing it's business in one of the fastest growing markets in the World, Eastern Europe. It has a top 10 Airline CEO from the last 30 years. From where we are there are a number of Golden Swans likely to push the share price higher over the next 5 years.

The shorts

The oil price

Ukraine negotiations

All just noise creating volatility. No long term effect.

Trust me. Varadi knows better than any of the young analysts that cover Wizz.

Stille

In my opinion, you don't need to gamble at all.

The best investment over time that I've ever followed (unfortunately, I didn't participate) was Amazon from 2003, when it was selling at around $9 until it's stock split in 2022 at just over $3000. If you'd have bought in 2003, by 2022 you'd have suffered massive volatility on the way but would have achieved a gain of 23% per year. That is the standard for retail investing. If you're doing better than that then I'm sure that you're already a multimillionaire.

Again in my view, Wizz has the potential to achieve around 40% gain per year for the next 5 years. This means that you don't need to gamble, you just buy unleveraged and hold to achieve a return better than the vast majority of retail investors possibly could.

I understand that nothing is certain but with Wizz, there's a better chance than anything else I've seen.

Robbren

I missed it all. Unfortunately I still have to work. I need to wait until the end of the month to lower my average again.