Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
Very positive analysis of DEC in both of these articles
The Seeking Alpha article has a valuation of over £60 on DEC
A £60 share price for DEC would bring the present 30% dividend yield down to 5% which seems reasonable
It is not the DEC dividend that is overvalued
It is the DEC share price that is severely undervalued
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528966-emeth-value-capital-diversified-energy-co-an-esg-business-hiding-in-plain-sight
https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/andrew-carreon-from-emeth-value-on?sd=pf
Stevo12
You said that HBR will be similar to Aker BP which has a Market Cap today of about £13 Billion
There will be about 1.7 billion HBR shares after the WD deal so do you mean that you expect HBR shares to reach about £7.50 in the next year or two?
Also interested to know if you have you ever taken a look at Var Energy? And if so what are your thoughts on the shares?
They seem to be good value with very good FCF and a dividend of over 15% according to this article on the Modern Investing substack
https://moderninvesting.substack.com/p/var-energi-norways-dividend-monster
Var Energy have a Market Cap today of about £5.5 Billion and so they will have a higher Market Cap than HBR after the WD deal assuming 1.7 Billion HBR shares at the current share price under £3 for a Market Cap of about £5 Billion
Var Energy only seems to produce about 200K barrels per day compared to HBR production of about 500K after the deal
But Var Energy is able to pay a dividend of over 15% due to strong FCF
So do you think Var Energy shares are also good value?
And if so which shares do you think are better value? HBR or Var Energy?
And what are your thoughts about Equinor and Aker BP shares ?
Low quality earnings are earnings that are likely to be not sustainable in the future
Such as CABP profits that come from dodgy countries in Africa, and which will likely disappear when other Fintech companies enter these Africa markets
It is difficult to see the attraction of a Fintech like CABP operating in dodgy countries in Africa on a PE of 10 and a zero dividend, when investors can buy banks such as Lloyds and Barclays operating in the UK on a PE of 5 and a 5% dividend
There is a good reason why most Institutional Investors have no interest in buying CABP shares at any price
Best to take any small profits in CABP while they are still available, and before the share price lows are tested again
The reason why CABP has been able to make profits is because it operates in high fraud and high corruption African countries that other reputable banks would not touch with a very long barge pole
The CABP earnings from Africa are extremely low quality and that is why CABP deserves a very low PE
WISE is a high quality and reputable company and they deserve a high PE
If WISE or any of the other big Fintech companies ever decide to enter the same Africa markets as CABP, then the profits for CABP will stop very fast and the share price will crash
Any company like CABP that is highly dependent on corrupt African countries like Nigeria has a very flawed business model and it is usually only one step away from some disaster or fraud that can easily bankrupt a company
Avoid
This is probably the very high point for CABP and it is very unlikely to ever reach £1 again
Far too many negatives here
1. No moat to entry for thousands of other Fintech companies to take away any or all of CABP profits in future years
2. A flawed CABP business model that depends on various corrupt countries in Africa to make profits
3. A forward PE for CABP that is more than double the PE of real banks such as Lloyds and Barclays
So any small gains for CABP will not last for very long
I would not be surprised to see the CABP share price back below 50p within the next few years when it becomes obvious that CABP has no moat to entry and that the CABP business model is severely flawed
Strange how Jumbo and all of the other CABP rampers always just resort to name calling and always avoid discussion of the actual issues and problems with CABP such as
1. No moat to entry for thousands of other Fintech companies to take away any or all of CABP profits in future years
2. A flawed CABP business model that depends on various corrupt countries in Africa to make profits
3. A forward PE for CABP that is more than double the PE of real banks such as Lloyds and Barclays
So any small gains for CABP will not last for very long
I would not be surprised to see the CABP share price back below 50p within the next few years when it becomes obvious that CABP has no moat to entry and that the CABP business model is severely flawed
Everyone knows that the results tomorrow will be good as they have already said that there will be 17% growth
The main problem with CABP is that there is no moat to their business model and it is just one of many thousands of Fintech companies that basically do the same thing of transfer money and payments on an app
Any excess profits that CABP may be making at present will be very easily eroded away in future years by new entrants to the markets where CABP operates
At the end of the day CABP is just a bank app and it is on a forecast PE of about 10
When you consider that Lloyds and Barclays are on a forecast PE of about 5 it is not difficult to see that it would be wise to take any profits on CABP before the market inevitably decides that CABP is very overvalued in comparison to these other banks
The other main problem with CABP is that it is very dependent for its profits on very high risk countries in Africa such as Nigeria
Nigeria is not exactly known for successful businesses but it is well known for very high levels of business fraud and corruption
This is not a successful long term business model
Take any profits and avoid
Can anyone explain the price history for HBR shares?
According to the Google Finance chart, HBR shares were trading at over £70 in May 2008, and at over £100 a few years later
So have HBR shares really fallen by 97% since then?
Or is there some other explanation for this fall in the HBR share price from £100 to £3 ?
And does anyone know what the highest Market Cap for HBR was approximately?
If the share price was £100 a few years ago then that would have been a Market Cap of £80 billion if there were approximately 800 million shares or the same number of shares as today
HBR did not have a Market Cap of £80 billion a few years ago so can anyone explain how the HBR share price was over £100 a few years ago?
“This Time Next Year could easily be £5.85”
Lol
58p is more likely
A company operating in Africa that is 3x more expensive than Lloyds or Barclays
If you have any small profits on CABP then you would be wise to take the small profits before it tests the lows at 50p
What is actually happening here?
JOG announces a second great farm out with Serica and instead of the share price soaring through £3 and £4 it is now falling below £2
What is the management playing at?
Can they not do buy backs or something to support the share price?
The brokers all say it is worth £6 or £8 or £10 so why are the directors not buying back the shares at £2 ?
And why are other companies not looking to do a takeover of JOG ?
And they say there are about 100 million barrels of reserves in GBA so that gives JOG with a 20% share 20 million barrels
Is there a figure in the oil industry that can be used to give these 20 million barrels a valuation for the shares?
For example 20 million x $10 gives $200 million or about £160 million
And divided by 32 million shares gives £5 a share
Is $10 a reasonable figure to use for these 20 million barrels?
Or should it be a figure that is higher or lower than $10 ?
CAB Payments is a bank
The clue is in the name
Crown Agents Bank Payments
Lloyds and Barclays are on a forecast PE of 4 and a Book Value of 0.5
CABP is on a forecast PE of 8 and a Book Value of 2
So CABP is very overvalued
Target price for CABP is 30p
Fair value for CABP is about 20p
CABP is about 5x more expensive than Barclays
Most sensible investors would not touch CABP with a large barge pole
It operates mainly in Nigeria and other African countries
Enough said
CABP shares are very overvalued now
The shares have a fair value of about 20p when compared to Lloyds or Barclays
Avoid
Ramping from Jumbo has become very boring and repetitive now
He does not seem to understand that CABP is one of thousands of Payments companies and it has no way to stop these other companies taking their business and profits whenever they want
CABP is also very expensive now when compared to other banks like Lloyds or Barclays
Barclays trades at 0.4 x Book value
CABP trades at 2x Book value
So CABP is about 5x more expensive than Barclays
Most sensible investors would not touch CABP with a large barge pole
It operates mainly in Nigeria and other African countries
Enough said
CABP shares are very overvalued now
The shares have a fair value of about 20p when compared to Lloyds or Barclays
Avoid
That analysis is nonsense
It does not have £2.92 per share
The £700 million belongs to customers
That is like saying Lloyds owns all the money deposited by customers
The way to value any bank is by book value
CABP is actually very expensive now as it is trading at almost twice the book value of 45p
Most UK banks trade at well below book value so CABP is actually far more expensive than Lloyds or Barclays
CABP is also far riskier than Lloyds and Barclays as most of its business is in Africa
CABP is now overvalued at almost twice book value
Avoid
Dickupham
So your fair valuation for JOG has gone from over £260 million yesterday to between £175 million and £200 million today!
Not very encouraging news for JOG investors
Any specific reason for the big downgrade?
Amazing how one blue day brings out the rampers
At the end of the day CABP is just one of thousands of payments companies and it has nothing special to offer except that it operates mainly in African countries where other payments companies do not want to operate because of corruption and many other problems
Most companies do not want to rely on Nigeria for their future business
Would not be surprised to see CABP test new lows below 50p some time next month