Member Info for asartara

Anyone know why there was such a large fall in the share price today?

And how do people here see the valuation of ITH when compared to other UK oil companies such as HBR and SQZ ?

I am interested in oil companies with good dividends and ITH/HBR/SQZ all seem to have good dividends at present

The obvious question though is will their dividends be maintained or increased in the future or will they be reduced

So do people here see ITH as better value than HBR or SQZ ?

I have also looked at BP and Shell but their dividends are less than half the dividends of ITH/HBR/SQZ

Why are the dividends of BP and Shell much less than ITH/HBR/SQZ ?

I am also interested in Var Energy as the valuation looks quite inexpensive

https://moderninvesting.substack.com/p/var-energi-norways-dividend-monster

RBC have estimated a total liability of £16 billion

So 2.4% gives a liability of almost £400 million

CT’s Moss sells out of ‘uninvestable’ Close Brothers

Columbia Threadneedle’s David Moss used a short-lived recovery in shares of Close Brothers (CBG) to sell out of the beleaguered private bank.

The stock was the largest detractor in Moss’s £117m CT High Income (CHI) investment trust in February after it announced the cancellation of its interim dividend in order to start building reserves to meet potential liabilities from the Financial Conduct Authority’s review of motor finance practices.

Moss used a ‘small recovery’ in the share price to sell his position over the month.

‘The FCA review will not report until September and, as we are unable to accurately assess the potential redress payable from the review, we felt the stock had become uninvestable, with the cancellation of the dividend removing one of the key reasons for ownership,’ he said.

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-close-brothers-dfs-softcat-jd-foxtons/a2439360

Tamovv

You said that you expect the dividend to be reduced from $400m to $170m next year for a 9% forecast yield

But then you said that you expect the dividend to be reduced from $400m to $300m next year for a 16% forecast yield

So is $300m the correct forecast?

And why have you increased the forecast dividend from $170m to $300m?

And do you expect this $300m dividend to be maintained in future years?

Or do you expect it to be increased or reduced in future years?

Thanks

Is the dividend expected to be kept at current levels for next year?

When are the results due here?

And is the dividend expected to be kept at the current level for this year and next year?

Why the huge 7% fall today?

And I wish the market had some of your confidence Steph

You keep saying that you expect it to reach new highs soon at over £11

Can I have a pint of whatever you are on?

At this rate of decline I will be quite happy with it reaching £3

It would not be very surprising to see OSB get taken over by one of the big UK or foreign banks

A decent premium would obviously be needed so the price would probably have to be over £6

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1042744/osb-and-metro-bank-in-spotlight-after-virgin-takeover-1042744.html

So basic eps of 106p excluding the interest rate adjustment gives a PE of 3.5

Dividend of 32p gives a yield near 9%

This will probably get taken over soon by Nationwide or one of the big banks at somewhere over £6

Karlo

That is the second time now that you have talked about “market report” without any reference or back up. Unless you have some evidence please stop spreading wild rumours.

There is no bid and no company will be interested in making a bid for a bank with an unknown liability that could potentially put it in to liquidation.

A very large Rights Issue for CBG is a far more likely outcome at the present time.

And what if the final liability is £1 Billion?

CBG would not even be worth a bid of £1

He is just talking nonsense

There is no bid

Who would bid when there is a huge unknown liability?

Stevo

I have been taking a closer look at VAR energy per you recommendation.

Just one question. Have you bought through a uk platform as I was struggling with ii and hl.

Var Energy trades on Euronext but not too sure if this is available on any of the main UK platforms. It should certainly be available with any of the larger brokers that trade European shares such as Interactive Brokers, Swissquote, Saxo, etc

Nothing said on these boards will change any share price and the suggestion that someone with a positive or a negative comment can do that is nonsense

You just cannot handle a slightly negative comment about a share that you recently bought

Damofarl

The comment was directed at manphibian and not you

He is obviously not very keen on any alternative view on BGEO

I did not say that BGEO was not good value

Just saying that there are other very good value banks out there and BGEO has become relatively expensive when compared to these other banks

For example both BGEO and Halyk have about 35% of their domestic markets

But the Kazakhstan GDP is about 8x the size of the Georgia GDP

And yet the Halyk market cap is less than 2x the BGEO market cap

And the forecast PE is less than 3

Or if you are looking at only UK banks, STB is on a forecast PE of less than 3 and a price to book of less than 0.4

BGEO has a price to book now of 1.4

A forum is a place for all views so no need for anyone to get upset if there is an occasional alternative view

I do not see £11 or anything like it here within the next 2 or 3 years Steph

I think most shareholders will be delighted with £4

Some people give far too much importance to shorts

So some people are short 2% of the Market Cap

So what? That means 98% of the Market Cap is long

Shorts have no special knowledge and they largely play on the fear of other investors

When Playtech has already had a bid of £1.56 rejected by 888 for being far too low, and when Draftkings has also discussed a takeover of 888 at probably a far higher share for share price, it is fairly obvious that 888 will not remain independent for very much longer.

The forecast eps is also 25p and so even if a bid did not happen for 888 the shares are still extremely undervalued

Various articles from last year suggest that the expected IPO for WD would have been at a minimum price of about €6 Billion or £5 Billion and a maximum of about €10 Billion

So adding this minimum IPO valuation to the current HBR Market Cap gives a total Market Cap of about £7 Billion

This would suggest a minimum share price for HBR after the deal of over £4

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/basf-shareholders-say-russia-exit-sets-up-oil-gas-ipo-2023-01-19/

https://investingintheweb.com/blog/wintershall-dea-ipo/

Stevo

This is very disappointing as your target price for HBR has now fallen from about £7 to about £1.70 in a few short weeks

I hope that not too many people invested in HBR at much higher share prices than today after reading your early analysis of the deal and £7 target price

I think Bank of America still have a £4.60 target price for HBR so it is difficult to understand why their target price is more than double your target price

Also difficult to understand how a mid size Norway player like Var Energy with about 250k daily production has a Market Cap of about £6 Billion, but HBR with 500k daily production will have a Market Cap of less than £3 Billion !