Member Info for asartara

Stevo

You seem to have completely changed your opinion now on HBR

You said previously that HBR would eventually look like Aker BP which has a Market Cap of about £12 Billion

This would mean a share price of about £7 for HBR

So what is your view now on HBR ?

Do you still think that it will go to £7 or is it no longer a very strong BUY ?

I think HBR is good value but I prefer Var Energy with a very good dividend yield of 13%

This is starting to look quite expensive now when compared to other value banks such as STB and Halyk which are both on a forecast PE of less than 3

Nothing stupid about £8

That is 2x Revenue for 888 and that is what Kindred was recently sold for

Do you think Flutter is stupidly valued on a PE of 100 ?

Or is Draftkings overvalued on a PE of 1000 ?

The forecast PE for 888 is only 3

A bid of only £1.50 will just be rejected again, as will a bid of £2

Any bid over £2.50 will likely be accepted, but £2.50 will still undervalue the company by a significant amount

When Playtech has already had a bid of £1.56 rejected by 888 for being far too low, and when Draftkings has also discussed a takeover of 888 at probably a far higher share for share price, it is fairly obvious that 888 will not remain independent for very much longer.

The only questions remaining really are will there be a bidding war involving multiple other players? and how much over £2 or £3 will Playtech or Draftkings have to bid?

The gambling industry continues to consolidate every month and there are not too many prime targets such as 888 and William Hill left to buy.

Kindred was the most recent takeover bid at a takeover price of 2x Revenue.

If 888 was to be taken over at a similar price then Playtech or Draftkings would have to pay about £8 per share.

This still seems overvalued when compared to other gambling companies like 888 or Playtech

The forecast PE on 888 is only about 3

This still seems overvalued when compared to other gambling companies like 888 or Playtech

The forecast PE on 888 is only about 3

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have estimated the car financing problems, which have echoes of the payment protection insurance scandal, could cost Lloyds £2.5bn, more than any of its rivals

So the Lloyds liability may be more than 5x their estimate of £450 million and obviously CBG do not have any clue at present what their final liability will be

If it is anywhere near the worst estimates of £1 billion then it could easily lead to receivership and liquidation for CBG

Giving an estimate is not really going to change anything for CBG as nobody really has any clue at present what the final liability is going to be

For CBG the figure is somewhere between zero and £1 billion, and so what good will it do for them to give a best estimate when the higher figure could mean a highly dilutive rights issue for CBG at best, and receivership and liquidation at worst ?

100p will be the new floor for the share price here before the inevitable takeover bid at about £2.50 comes from either Playtech or Draftkings

And even without a bid there will be a gradual increase to £2.50 as the eps increases over the next 2 years

Market screener has a consensus forecast eps of 25p and this gives a share price of £2.50 assuming a market average PE of 10

When the dividend returns it will certainly be nothing like the previous levels near 70p which was not even covered by earnings

A dividend of 30p is probably the maximum

There are several cheaper and safer banks such as OSB, STB, Halyk, trading at much lower forecast PE levels than CBG, and with far less risk and uncertainty

A highly dilutive Rights Issue is very possible here now

Perhaps a 1 for 1 at £2 to raise £300 million

It is probably better for investors to just completely avoid oil companies that rely on the UK for their profits

The UK Government is only going to steal everything away from their shareholders

This is about the only thing that UK Gov does well

Stealing money away from ordinary UK taxpayers to give to their scam green projects and their scam net zero projects and their millions of migrants who get everything for free

Much better for investors to buy the big Norway oil companies such as Equinor, Aker BP, and Var Energy

Any successful bid will have to be at a minimum of £2.50

Draftkings and all the rest will not get hold of William Hill, the most famous name in gambling, for less than £1 Billion

Stevo12

Did you take a look at Var Energy?

The valuation seems very cheap according to this article

https://moderninvesting.substack.com/p/var-energi-norways-dividend-monster

CABP largely depends on corrupt countries in Africa for business

This is probably not a very secure future for any company

The shares may retest the recent lows below 50p

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4142629/investors-accuse-cab-payments-limited-risk-disclosure-ipo-prospectus

The PE is not 4 it is nearer 10

There are many financial companies on far lower PE such as Lloyds, Barclays, Natwest, etc etc

CABP operates in corrupt countries in Africa and they will also soon lose their early mover profitability as other companies move in to these countries

Dividends are also very unlikely for a very long time and maybe never

CABP shares seem to be very overvalued now when compared to the big banks on a PE of 4 and dividends of over 6%

Sell or Avoid

The Seeking Alpha article shows the many huge risks of investing in CABP

1. There is a huge number of shares waiting to be sold by Helios which will continue to push the price down

2. The lock up period has now ended and this will create even more selling pressure

3. The huge risks due to their operating in corrupt countries in Africa

4. The huge risks from parallel markets in Africa

5. Competition for CABP has not even started yet. They are currently enjoyed early mover profits but that will end very soon when the competitors start to move in. The Seeking Alpha article uncovered over 50 competitors such as Western Union that will take away CABP future revenue and earnings.

And that is only a very few of the many risks that were mentioned in the article

And there are many excellent banks and other companies on lower valuations than CABP

The main UK banks are all trading on lower valuations than CABP for example and they are also paying high dividends

So not much reason to take all of these risks with CABP when you can get a lower valuation with Lloyds or Barclays and far less risk

Would not be very surprised to see CABP retest the lows at below 50p

The Seeking Alpha article is at least willing to list the many huge risks of investing in CABP

1. There is a huge number of shares waiting to be sold by Helios which will continue to push the price down

2. The lock up period has now ended and this will create even more selling pressure

3. The huge risks due to their operating in corrupt countries in Africa

4. The huge risks from parallel markets in Africa

5. Competition for CABP has not even started yet. They are currently enjoyed early mover profits but that will end very soon when the competitors start to move in. The Seeking Alpha article uncovered over 50 competitors such as Western Union that will take away CABP future revenue and earnings.

And that is only a very few of the many risks that were mentioned in the article

And there are many excellent banks and other companies on lower valuations than CABP

The main UK banks are all trading on lower valuations than CABP for example and they are also paying high dividends

So not much reason to take all of these risks with CABP when you can get a lower valuation with Lloyds or Barclays and far less risk

Would not be very surprised to see these retest the lows at below 50p

Avoid

Alas Smith

That is fine but it was your reference to GRAPHENE that I did not understand

Graphene is a material that is made up of carbon

Is there some connection between Graphcore and the material graphene or was it just a typing error?