Member Info for asartara

Dear Sidara

You can offer 35p or less or whatever you like but to be honest we are not very interested anyway

In a few month time there will be others who will be happy to offer 35p and probably a lot more

And even if there are no other bidders we are quite confident that the share price will be well over £1 within the next few years

Now please go away and do not come back again

We already knew that there were historic accounting issues

This is just the FCA confirming it

It will also not spook Sidara in the least

They will still be hoping that they can get WG for a bargain 35p but their plan will not work

When the accounts are published there will likely be other bidders and the final sale price will have to be nearer £1

Why is the share price only at just above $3 ?

The Bolt stake alone is worth over $100m and more than the $3 share price

And so the other 50 TMT investments valued at over $100 million are available for free

NAV is about $7 but Bolt has not been revalued for a long time

Uber has risen a lot since the last Bolt valuation and so the real NAV for TMT here is nearer $10

So you can buy TMT now at $3 for a discount of about 70% to NAV of $10

BBGI is a Luxembourg company so is there a 15% Withholding Tax on all dividends ?

These are still looking very expensive on a forecast PE of over 20

Would not be surprised to see them fall to £4 or less

I have no holding in SEPL

I do not think it is safe to have any investment in a country as corrupt as Nigeria

I do look though at most of the oil companies that are listed on the LSE to see if any of them are suitable for investment

Past share price performance is certainly no guarantee that large fraud will not occur at some time in the future

You only need to make a brief search to see some of the chaos and corruption surrounding the Nigerian oil industry to understand why the major oil companies are leaving Nigeria and why there is minimal UK Institutional ownership of Seplat shares

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/05/01/claims-over-ownership-of-seplat/

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8270GG/

The risk of owning any assets in a country as corrupt Nigeria is simply too big

And what on earth makes you think that my largest holding is Serica!

It is a bit strange! lol

Confiscation and taxation would be seen by the world outside of Nigeria and that would not look good for Nigeria

I was thinking more about the standard levels of corruption by government officials such as bribes and kickbacks and payoffs

The Wikipedia page suggests that most of the oil wealth of Nigeria gets stolen by corrupt government officials

So how would Seplat shareholders ever know if Seplat profits should be 100% or 200% higher every year?

Nigeria is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and so all of the bribes and kickbacks and payoffs would obviously be very well hidden by corrupt government officials

What is the risk of large fraud here given that Nigeria is one of the most corrupt countries in the world?

Is there not a high risk that corrupt people in Nigeria will eventually take everything from Seplat shareholders?

From Wikipedia :

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Nigeria#Repression_of_protest_and_government_corruption

“The Nigerian government has total control over property rights, and they have the authority to seize any property for use by the oil companies. A majority of every dollar that comes out of the ground in the delta goes to the State and Federal governments. According to the World Bank, most of Nigeria's oil wealth gets siphoned off by 1% of the population. Corruption in the government is rampant: since 1960 it is estimated that 300 to 400 billion dollars has been stolen by corrupt government officials.”

It seems very likely then that they already take a big cut out of everything

So is there not a risk that they will eventually take 100% from Seplat shareholders?

Sold some to cover Nigerian taxes on ones held

Usual caveats

Trek

Is there some tax if you own these shares?

Do you mean Withholding Tax on dividends?

What Nigerian taxes?

These are still looking very expensive on a forecast PE of over 20

Would not be surprised to see them fall to £5 or less

Price to book valuation here is also very high in comparison to UK banks

Close Brothers 0.35

Barclays 0.37

Secure Trust Bank 0.39

Standard Chartered 0.47

Lloyds 0.65

Natwest 0.67

HSBC 0.9

TBC Bank 1.3

Bank of Georgia 1.6

Price to book valuation here is also very high in comparison to UK banks

Close Brothers 0.35

Barclays 0.37

Secure Trust Bank 0.39

Standard Chartered 0.47

Lloyds 0.65

Natwest 0.67

HSBC 0.9

TBC Bank 1.3

Bank of Georgia 1.6

Why is the share price higher in London than Nigeria?

It is 160p in London

But it is only 150p in Nigeria

This is a Canadian share

So is there a Withholding Tax deducted from the dividend if not held in a SIPP ?

Is it a deduction of 15% or 25% on the dividend ?

Tamovv

Thank you very much

The final dividend last time was 14p

So a final dividend for 2023 of less than 14p will be a cut in the dividend

And when are the final results due anyway?

The Serica website does not even say when the final results are due

They do not seem to be very concerned about their shareholders

Tammov

Londoner

Tornado

You have all gone a bit quiet

Do any of you have any thoughts on the recent large fall in share price?

Is it a buying opportunity?

And what do you think about these reduced forecasts?

Do you agree with them?

Do you still expect dividends of $200 million for 2024 and $300 million for 2025?

And which oil company do you prefer as an investment?

Ithaca, Serica, or Harbour?

Steph

Thanks for the explanation and good luck!

I also have some and it will be good if they can get back to over £10

Steph

Why is GROW the only share that you are interested in ?

Do you not think that it is sensible to have a diversified portfolio instead of being 100% in Venture Capital ?

GROW has fallen by about 80% in recent years and so it has not been a good investment

Or what about investing in other VC companies ?

If you are only interested in VC do you not have any interest in diversifying in to some other VC companies like Augmentum or IP Group ?