Member Info for asartara

Steph

What is your target price here and why do you think the shares are so weak?

And can the management not do buybacks here to get the price moving up?

I think you said that you had remortgaged your house to buy more here so it sounded a bit worrying

Alas Smith

You said :

“There has been comment on Graphcore and if it has anything to do with graphene, then it is correct to write it off as a distraction and without any meaningful revenue”

What do you mean by this statement exactly? It is not very clear

What is the connection between Graphcore and graphene?

And why is any connection between the two of these things negative?

And why would any connection between Graphcore and graphene mean that Graphcore as a company is worthless?

The statement is not very clear and does not really make any sense

Ramper Jumbo back again with Ramper Plutus

Best advice is to avoid shares like CABP that depend on corrupt countries in Africa for their business model

Expecting a retest soon of the lows at 50p

Avoid

Does anyone know the reason for the 8% share price fall today?

The NAV is £7.35 and even that is at a 35% discount according to the last annual report

So the actual NAV is about £11.30 and the share is at £2.38

So the discount is now almost 80% !

What is actually going on here? These shares were over £11 not so long ago

And can the management not do anything to increase the share price such as very large buybacks?

Does anyone know how the expected switch-off of terrestrial TV and Radio is going to affect Arqiva ?

Presumably all of their TV transmitters and infrastructure will not be needed after the switch-off ?

So will the switch-off not be a huge negative for Arqiva future revenue and profits and business model ?

Is there going to be any need for these TV transmitters and infrastructure in the future ?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/07/bbc-must-ready-end-terrestrial-tv-broadcasts-decade-says-tim/

No comparison with Equals

Equals is a very reputable company dealing in very regulated countries

CABP gets most of its income from dodgy countries in Africa with almost no regulations and huge levels of fraud and corruption

The market and Institutional Investors therefore demand a huge risk premium

CABP is actually very overvalued when compared to real banks such as Lloyds and Barclays on a PE of 4 and a high dividend

Would not be surprised to see CABP drift back down again to about 50p

Avoid

The dividend will most likely be held or increased

And the DEC share price will probably be over £20 within a few months

And I think the share price will soon be over £30

As several analysts and brokers have also recently said

Snowcap are just two very bald and very wimpy looking brothers talking their own book

They have just made up and forecast the most damaging figures about DEC that they can to try to make a profit from their short bets and then they have publicised the news all over the internet

It should be illegal

The analysis by several major brokers with a £30 Target Price for DEC and by the Oak Bloke are all just as valid research and analysis for DEC as this nonsense from the Snowdrop baldies who are just talking their own book and short bets

The dividend will not be cut and DEC will be fine

hxxps://www.afr.com/companies/energy/snowcap-behind-the-mystery-uk-firm-that-went-after-agl-20220603-p5ar0i

Greygeorge

Why do you only post on DEC and no other company?

Do you have some obsession problem or something?

Snowcap are just two bald brothers talking their own book

They have just made up and forecast the most damaging figures that they can to try to make a profit from their short bets and then publicised it all over the internet

It should be illegal

The dividend will not be cut and DEC will be fine

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/snowcap-behind-the-mystery-uk-firm-that-went-after-agl-20220603-p5ar0i

The takeover of Kindred today shows just how much 888 is currently undervalued

FDJ paid about 2x Revenue for Kindred

If 888 was to be taken over at a similar valuation to Kindred, the takeover price for 888 would need to be about £8

It would not be very surprising to see a £4 bid for 888 some time this year

Stevo12

Thanks

The Modern Investing article suggests that Var is undervalued on various levels when compared with the large oil companies such as Exxon and Shell

For example, Price / CFFO of just over 1, and Price / Reserves of just over $4

None of the very large oil companies come near to these low valuations

Where are you getting 8-10x FCF for Var ?

The author says in one of the comments that :

Var is pushing it’s tax rate down by investing a lot of money into new projects, but let’s conservatively assume that all CAPEX is needed to substation the business. Then we get to the following numbers:

~ 1.350 Billion $ CFFO after tax - ~ 650 Million $ CAPEX

= Free Cashflow of 700 Million $ per quarter * 4 = 2.8 Billion $ per year

This is at current prices a Free Cashflow yield of 42% !

So it looks like Var is able to support their 15% dividend

And you said that HBR will be similar to Aker BP

So are you expecting a HBR share price somewhere near £7.50 ?

The Seeking Alpha article is just over one year old and nothing much has changed since then apart from the NYSE listing

The valuation of £60 is therefore still relevant

DEC is seriously undervalued at £10

Very positive analysis of DEC in both of these articles

The Seeking Alpha article has a valuation of over £60 on DEC

A £60 share price for DEC would bring the present 30% dividend yield down to 5% which seems reasonable

It is not the DEC dividend that is overvalued

It is the DEC share price that is severely undervalued

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528966-emeth-value-capital-diversified-energy-co-an-esg-business-hiding-in-plain-sight

https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/andrew-carreon-from-emeth-value-on?sd=pf

Stevo12

You said that HBR will be similar to Aker BP which has a Market Cap today of about £13 Billion

There will be about 1.7 billion HBR shares after the WD deal so do you mean that you expect HBR shares to reach about £7.50 in the next year or two?

Also interested to know if you have you ever taken a look at Var Energy? And if so what are your thoughts on the shares?

They seem to be good value with very good FCF and a dividend of over 15% according to this article on the Modern Investing substack

https://moderninvesting.substack.com/p/var-energi-norways-dividend-monster

Var Energy have a Market Cap today of about £5.5 Billion and so they will have a higher Market Cap than HBR after the WD deal assuming 1.7 Billion HBR shares at the current share price under £3 for a Market Cap of about £5 Billion

Var Energy only seems to produce about 200K barrels per day compared to HBR production of about 500K after the deal

But Var Energy is able to pay a dividend of over 15% due to strong FCF

So do you think Var Energy shares are also good value?

And if so which shares do you think are better value? HBR or Var Energy?

And what are your thoughts about Equinor and Aker BP shares ?

Low quality earnings are earnings that are likely to be not sustainable in the future

Such as CABP profits that come from dodgy countries in Africa, and which will likely disappear when other Fintech companies enter these Africa markets

It is difficult to see the attraction of a Fintech like CABP operating in dodgy countries in Africa on a PE of 10 and a zero dividend, when investors can buy banks such as Lloyds and Barclays operating in the UK on a PE of 5 and a 5% dividend

There is a good reason why most Institutional Investors have no interest in buying CABP shares at any price

Best to take any small profits in CABP while they are still available, and before the share price lows are tested again

The reason why CABP has been able to make profits is because it operates in high fraud and high corruption African countries that other reputable banks would not touch with a very long barge pole

The CABP earnings from Africa are extremely low quality and that is why CABP deserves a very low PE

WISE is a high quality and reputable company and they deserve a high PE

If WISE or any of the other big Fintech companies ever decide to enter the same Africa markets as CABP, then the profits for CABP will stop very fast and the share price will crash

Any company like CABP that is highly dependent on corrupt African countries like Nigeria has a very flawed business model and it is usually only one step away from some disaster or fraud that can easily bankrupt a company

Avoid

This is probably the very high point for CABP and it is very unlikely to ever reach £1 again

Far too many negatives here

1. No moat to entry for thousands of other Fintech companies to take away any or all of CABP profits in future years

2. A flawed CABP business model that depends on various corrupt countries in Africa to make profits

3. A forward PE for CABP that is more than double the PE of real banks such as Lloyds and Barclays

So any small gains for CABP will not last for very long

I would not be surprised to see the CABP share price back below 50p within the next few years when it becomes obvious that CABP has no moat to entry and that the CABP business model is severely flawed

Strange how Jumbo and all of the other CABP rampers always just resort to name calling and always avoid discussion of the actual issues and problems with CABP such as

1. No moat to entry for thousands of other Fintech companies to take away any or all of CABP profits in future years

2. A flawed CABP business model that depends on various corrupt countries in Africa to make profits

3. A forward PE for CABP that is more than double the PE of real banks such as Lloyds and Barclays

So any small gains for CABP will not last for very long

I would not be surprised to see the CABP share price back below 50p within the next few years when it becomes obvious that CABP has no moat to entry and that the CABP business model is severely flawed