Member Info for asartara

Sekforde

"If present prices are maintained then the FCF for Harbour would be $600m+ (8x170m) + (10x150m) = $3460m"

Are these figures taking account of the current hedging strategy? Does the hedging by HBR for 2026 and 2027 not mean that it will not be possible for HBR to get the full benefit from these increases in oil and gas prices? For example, if HBR has hedged a large part of their oil production at $70 for the next two years, how can they get the full benefit if oil is at $100 for the next two years?

You also said :

"But the fact remains that the company is capable of generating its entire market cap in the next three years on the basis of fairly conservative assumptions. Moreover at the end of that three years it will still be generating perhaps $1.5bn a year"

How many years would you expect this $1.5 bn FCF to continue for HBR in the future? Do you see it continuing for 10/20/30 years? Have you done a Discounted Cash Flow valuation for HBR?

And how do you see the current share price valuation for HBR when compared to SQZ?

And do you have any thoughts on ITH?

Knot

So what is your view on the report?

Is it all nonsense?

Do you not agree that the report also completely ignores the fact that the current FCA scheme has gone completely against the recent Supreme Court ruling on many issues and so it is most likely illegal?

If CBG were in any real trouble then they would obviously go to court against the FCA and they would obviously win

The report also completely ignores the fact that the current FCA scheme has gone completely against the recent Supreme Court ruling on many issues and so it is most likely illegal

If CBG were in any real trouble then they would obviously go to court against the FCA and they would obviously win

Bids will arrive this week

Still expecting £3.75

Why is the deadline on Saturday 21st March at 5pm and not Friday at 5pm ?

The stock market is not open on Saturday so would any bids not have to be made before the stock market closes on Friday at 4.30pm ?

I would not be surprised to see a US listing some time this year

As you say the US stock market will give a much higher rating to HBR so the share price will probably be at least £4

Gold may reach $6,000 or higher

The big mystery is why has the oil price been so weak in comparison?

Oil is a finite resource like gold but it is far more essential

It would be no surprise to see the 15 to 1 ratio again within the next few years

Either the price of gold needs to collapse, which I do not expect to happen, or the price of oil needs to rise by about 100% or 200%

The Gold / Oil ratio of 15 is widely considered to be the historical long-term average

So if Gold is over $5,000 now there is no reason why the price of oil should not eventually be well over $300

Dan

"Harbour could be looking at approaching 2 billion cash flow for the year"

That would give a dividend of about $1 billion or $0.55 per share or 40p per share

So a dividend yield of about 14%

If this happens the HBR share price would probably rise to about £8 to give a dividend yield of about 5%

Sekforde

Thanks

I had expected a far better share price performance today given the oil price

Do you agree that FCF of $1.5 billion should be quite possible within the next few years?

Assuming 50% of FCF for dividends is $750 million or $0.40 or 30p per share

That is far higher than the $0.26 dividend that HBR paid last year

Very undervalued

That is a dividend of 30p a share and a dividend yield of 10% assuming a £3 share price

Sekforde

How are you calculating the Market Cap here ?

You said a few days ago that "$6bn is just not a realistic valuation for a company that could be on the cusp of huge earnings"

From the recent Accounts the number of shares were as follows

Ordinary shares 1.4 billion

Ordinary non-voting shares 251 million

Also the shares recently issued to LLOG 175 million

So there seem to be just over 1.8 billion shares in issue

At current price that gives a Market Cap of about £5.3 billion or just over $7 billion

Are you using a smaller number of shares than 1.8 billion ?

Even at $7 billion it is very undervalued

FCF of $1.5 billion should be quite possible within the next few years and that would allow dividends of $750 million or 40 cents per share

That is a dividend of 30p a share and a dividend yield of 10% assuming a £3 share price

A primary listing for HBR in the US would probably see the price rise by about 50% to a share price of about £4.50

Is there any way to see how much HBR actually pay in EPL ?

Stevo mentioned a figure of about $1 billion increase to FCF if EPL is removed but I do not see any figure near $1 billion for EPL in the accounts

MMs have nothing to lose by dropping stocks like this down a little bit each day

They do it to create business for themselves and fear among small shareholders and to trigger some stop losses that were probably bunched around 190p and 185p

Nothing has changed, the large shareholders are still sitting on their shares, and they know that any bids will have to be at a minimum of £2.75 and even if there was no bid the property alone is worth a minimum of £3 per share net of any debt

The value here will eventually have to come out in the share price

Sekforde

Where are you getting $1.4 billion FCF ?

The company is forecasting $600 million FCF for 2026

What is your forecast for FCF in 2026, and dividend in 2026 ?

What is the expected dividend for FY 2026 under the new policy ?

They have forecast a FCF of $600m for 2026, so 45%-75% of FCF gives a dividend of between $270m and $450m

So with nearly 2 billion shares that gives a dividend of somewhere between 13.5c and 22.5c

But then they say if leverage is above 1x the dividend will be nearer 45% of FCF and leverage will be above 1x in 2026

So is there a possibility of a dividend of only 13.5c for 2026 ?

Or is the base dividend of 16.1c the minimum dividend that they will pay for 2026 ?

And is a higher dividend still possible if FCF is $600m ?

The dividend was 26c last year so whether it is now 13.5c or 16.1c, it is certainly a very large reduction of the dividend

Panmure reckons a sale of the entire business could fetch 325p–450p a share, well above its 285p target price.

The broker sets out three scenarios. The cleanest is a straight sale, with possible buyers including Circle, Ramsay and Nuffield.

Competition hurdles would be an issue for the UK groups, while Mediclinic, already on the register with a 30% stake, is an obvious contender, having bid 300p in 2017. Private equity interest is also likely given recent activity in the sector.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1078889/spire-healthcare-in-play-but-which-avenue-will-it-take-1078889.html

The investment case : hidden asset value

Central to the shareholder pressure is Spire's substantial property portfolio, comprising 19 freehold hospital properties valued at over £1.4 billion. This asset base significantly exceeds the company's market capitalisation, creating what activists argue is a compelling value arbitrage opportunity.

Harwood Capital Management, holding approximately 5% of shares, has been particularly vocal in pushing for a sale process. "We believe Spire's current share price fails to reflect the company's value, most notably its unencumbered hospital portfolio worth in excess of £1.4 billion," the firm stated.

https://www.business-sale.com/news/business-sale/1-billion-spire-healthcare-explores-sale-as-shareholders-push-for-premium-valuation-228179

£1.4 billion is £3.50 per share

Kjn

You are also ignoring the real value of the property here which the stock market is not valuing correctly

It probably has a replacement value of well over £1.6 billion net of debt or £4 per share

Go and research what it would cost now to build these 38 hospitals and over 50 clinics

£3 may be sufficient but I would expect that competition between the various interested bidders will get it over £3.40

Kjn

A bid of £1.5 billion on an EV basis would make absolutely no sense

SPI has net debt of over £1 billion and so that would only leave 500 million for the shares or a price of £1.25 per share

The £1.5 billion reported by Sky obviously refers to a bid price for the shares of £3.75 per share

This would also correspond with the FT article that says that the main shareholders require a bid price of at least £3.40 per share

Kjn

FT said :

Top investors, including hedge fund Toscafund and investment manager Harwood Capital — along with its activist trust Achilles — are urging London-listed Spire to put itself up for sale for at least £3.40 a share, said people familiar with the situation.

And Sky mentioned a bid of £1.5 billion

There are 400 million shares so that is £3.75 a share

Sky did not say anything about EV and so it is fairly clear that this refers to the bid price

It also corresponds to the FT article that says that the main shareholders want at least £3.40

And as Laura asked why have you recently set up an account just to post on SPI ?

It looks a bit desperate if you are trying to deramp

If you have any open shorts on SPI you should probably close them as soon as possible before the bids start coming in at over £3.40

The article is from the end of last year but the sale process and the talks were always expected to take about 6 months and so the article is still 100% relevant to the present situation

The main shareholders obviously want at least £3.40 and Sky also recently mentioned a bid of £3.75

And if you take the bid of £2.50 that was completely rejected a few years ago and simply increase it by healthcare cost inflation since then, and hospital building cost inflation of 50% since then, you also get to £3.75