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From RNS dated 4th December 2023:
Tom Evans, Pennpetro Energy's CEO said:
"These are brilliant results for our first full month of oil production from our CT1H well in Texas, and pleasingly exceeds our original estimates of circa 20 barrels per day. We have seen some days reach oil production rates up to 410 bopd, and we are still waiting for the well to settle into stable production. We are still seeing a generally increasing trend in our daily oil production, which is certainly highly encouraging, and it may take us another month or so to see the well finally settle down to a steady state flow rate."
Target = 20 bopd
Actual = 161 bopd - that is a great result.
They haven't even established flow rates yet so it is a bit early to worry about declining. So far the results are very good, especially considering they went ahead with the first workover with an expectation of as little as 10 to 20 bopd.
Even without Horse Hill this sounds a pretty good prospect. $255,000 revenue for 1 well all paid up by the 20th of the following month is a great start. I seem to remember a podcast saying that they had another 10 wells to work over.
The results are not so important as the Post Period news:
Post Period:
· Pennpetro embarked on a workover of its Chalk Talk #1H ("CT1H") well in October and commenced an extended well test on 1 November.
· November oil production from CT1H was 4,827 barrels at an average of 161 Barrels of oil per day ("bopd").
· Oil sales for the month of November totalled 4,599.08 barrels.
· Pennpetro put in place an oil sales agreement that sees the oil it sells for the month paid to Nobel Petroleum, its 100% Texas subsidiary, on the 20th day of the following month.
· Net cash received for November's oil production (after tax) was US$329,658.09 which equates to US$255,032.62 net revenue interest (after taxes and royalties).
· Extended well testing of CT1H continues.
· The workover of Chalk Talk 4H well commenced on 8 December and is ongoing.
So net cash for November was $255,000, all paid up. That was for production from the first workover, Chalk Talk #1H. They have now worked over a second well, CT#4H, and another 2 workovers are planned to start soon. With 4 completed that could be $1M per month net revenue after taxes and royalties. All for a m/cap of just over £2M. Sounds good to me.
Well Noble Helium are pretty confident they have already hit Helium in their 2 drills and are soon going to be flow testing and are already making plans for early monetarisation. At their recent placing price the NHE m/cap was equivalent to £32.5M (though it is trading at a bit less than that currently). That is nearly 4 times the m/cap of HE1 which is a big reversal as for so long HE1 had by far the bigger m/cap of the 2 companies.
From Noble Helium's recent presentation:
Mbelele: The story so far
What we’ve found at Mbelele
• Probable 10-15m free gas column at crest containing N2 and high He.
• Better-than-expected, thick, high quality stacked reservoirs with excellent flow potential.
• Estimated air-corrected 2-3% helium exsolved from downhole fluid samples, now enroute for lab analysis.
• A prolific helium system / potential new helium province with enormous upside across basin.
What’s next
• Mbelele-2 now cased and suspended ready for flow test.
• Confirm helium content from lab analyses.
• Drill and test probable gas column at crest.
• Flow test Mbelele-2 in Middle and Lower Lake Beds.
• Continue negotiations for early monetisation strategy.
This all goes to show that the current m/cap here and that is including the placing shares - 3402 million - at £8.5 M is stupidly low.
In a nutshell, the number of shares in issue shouldn't affect the m/cap.
Everything else being equal, the lower share price after a placing when multiplied by the increased number of shares in issue will usually result in a similar or even higher m/cap to before the placing. However what was a m/cap of £30-£40M before the placing here has now resulted in a m/cap of just over £8M. The placing price was obviously far too low but that has been done now. To correct this disparity the share price needs to about 1p (for a m/cap of circa £35M) or 4 times it's current level.
Will this happen? It'd be great if it does.
During the drilling of Tai-3 the share price was between 5p and 6p for a m/cap of £50-£60M. Was that too high? Not really considering that during the drilling of Tai-1 the SP was around 20p for a m/cap of £100-£120M.
With inconclusive results from the Tai-3 drill and the rig problems, the share price dipped to between 3p and 4p (£30-£40M m/cap).
Then, if the HE1 management had used their heads and just completed a placing instead of stupidly announcing they needed extra funds, the chances are the placing would have gone through at around 2.5p. Assuming they raised the same amount, that would have been another 250 million shares for a new total of 1200 million shares. Assuming the share price then stayed in the 2.5p to 3p range, that would have equated to a m/cap of £30-£35M.
However, because the placing was finally completed at what was essentially a 10 times lower share price the m/cap has fallen considerably below what would be considered sensible and fair value. With the new figure of 3402 million shares in issue the m/cap at 0.24p is now a mere £8.2M. Anyone can see that the m/cap is now about 3 or 4 times less than it should be.
So the question is: Will it readjust to fair value when the rig is mended and fully functional and in the run-up to the next spud? Maybe, bearing in mind that nothing has really changed and to be honest this new prospect and drill is a breath of fresh air after the 3 frustrating Tai failures.
Plus Noble Helium are still pretty sure they have already made a commercial Helium discovery which on confirmation will derisk the whole basin, HE1's acreage included.
ATB
I reckon that if the next drill goes well and they hit gas then 3p could be easily possible - that will be a m/cap of about £100M. Previously when drilling Tai-1 a sniff of Helium had this up to a m/cap of £165M. Nothing much has changed and the Helium is just as valuable.
Yes, but with the volume over the last day and a half it is just a panic to sell them below the placing price. And pretty stupid too. They can just as easily raise the sell price to anything between 0.25p and 0.30p and the placing shares will still all be offloaded easily before the spud of the next well. It looks like buying pressure is going to force the price up anyway, albeit slowly. The MM's should also be charging a premium for larger quantities ie. 10 million and not letting them go for the same buy price as a few hundred thousand shares.
2 x 10 million buys and 2 x 4 million buys and still the MM's don't up the buy price. This is getting very silly. Yes, there might be some big sell orders being worked but it doesn't matter to the sellers whether they get 0.238p or 0.248p or even above the placing 0.258p. In fact, generally to most sellers, the higher the sell price obtained the better.
Only the Tai drills have failed to find Helium so far. Noble Helium seem to be pretty confident that they have already made a discovery and confirmation of this will derisk the whole basin. And this new location may just as likely hit Helium for HE1 too.
I think the MM's should have a good Xmas break and then come back and pay more attention to their jobs. With this sort of buying demand the buy price could be 0.25p, 0.26, 0.27p and even a lot more.
Endless amounts of buys going through at 0.241p - so what's next? 0.242p??
They should not have taken the sell price down below the placing price. That is just silly and very insulting to those who participated in the placing.